NCAAF Week 13 Last Chance Value Picks for Saturday

Once again we return for our Last Chance Value Picks where we explore the lines that have drifted too far during the week. Let’s take advantage of these line moves, get down on these weak numbers, and put the boots to our books!

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators

Saturday, November 28, 2020 – 12:00 PM EST at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium,

The line on this game has spiked from Florida laying 20 to where it currently stands at -25.5, due primarily, to the continued absence of Kentucky starting tailback, Chris Rodriguez Jr., who was sidelined along with 10 other Wildcats last week in their 63-3 thrashing by Alabama.

Certainly, Rodriguez isn’t the only reason the college football odds at all of the best online sportsbooks have moved heavily in the direction of the Gators but he is a big part of Kentucky’s rushing attack and will be sorely missed. We should also note that tight end, Justin Rigg, will be sitting as well.

That doesn’t sound like good news for the Cats, and it isn’t, but the point spread is designed to level the playing field and I believe that Florida’s porous defense will allow the Cats to keep this one within the generous margins. Back the live home hound here.

NCAAF Pick: Kentucky +25.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Kentucky +25.5(-110)

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Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, November 28, 2020 - 03:30 PM EST at Spartan Stadium

This isn’t a seismic shift in the betting landscape on this matchup between Northwestern and Michigan State, however, it is big enough to get our attention, particularly because we are now getting 13.5 points. Of course, maybe we could sit on this just a bit longer to see if it hits an even more critical number of 14, but we will be content with this because the Spartans are at home and capable of keeping this one close against the undefeated Wildcats. Undefeated is the operative word here and it’s like catnip to the betting masses who are laying it in on Northwestern.

Yet, one thing we need to keep in mind is that Northwestern is hot off the heels of a mammoth win over No. 10 Wisconsin and did so as seven-point home dogs. This is often the best spot to fade a team in this situation, as they are still reveling in their upset victory and overlooking a perceived weak opponent. If the folks over at BetOnline want to give me MSU +13.5 then who am I to look this gift horse in the mouth?

NCAAF Pick: Michigan State +13.5 (-108) at BetOnline

Spartans +13.5-108

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Georgia Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Saturday, November 28, 7:30 pm ET at Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

We must remember that the game we play revolves around value, and in this case, we are getting a no-nothing number like +18.5 that has crossed the great divide to 21.5 a much more critical number for those who understand that any multiple of seven can be crucial. In this case, we are now north of three touchdowns with the Gamecocks.

Part of this number bump has to do with South Carolina’s leading receiver, Shi Smith, being downgraded to doubtful for this contest with a concussion. But the Cocks’ rely much more on their rushing attack than their aerial assault and this could be good news for those who are backing South Carolina in their college football picks. As we all know, if a team is effective in running the ball, it chews up the clock and keeps the opponent’s offense off of the field.

And speaking of opponents, let’s talk about Georgia, a team that has failed to cover the number in their last four outings, two in which they were installed as double-digit favorites. No one is expecting South Carolina to pull the upset here but this enormous head start against a conference rival that they upset last year as 23.5 point road underdogs, is worth taking a bite of the apple.

NCAAF Pick: South Carolina +21.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Gamecocks +21.5-110

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