How to Approach Rookie WRs in Redraft (Fantasy Football)

Introduction

Drafting rookie wide receivers (WRs) in fantasy football can be a high-risk, high-reward strategy that requires careful consideration and savvy insight. As the NFL welcomes a fresh batch of talent each season, understanding which rookies have the potential to make an immediate impact on their teams—and your fantasy lineup—is crucial. While analyzing factors such as college performance, NFL combine results, and depth chart position can provide valuable insight, in this article, we look at the efficiency of the WR draft market. This article will guide you through trends to consider when selecting rookie WRs, ensuring you make calculated decisions on draft day.

Analysis

First, let’s get an overview of where rookie WRs fall after their first season in the league. The plot below shows the spread of rookie WR rankings for total fantasy points (PPR) for the last four seasons. We see that while there are fluctuations, there is typically a wide spread in terms of rookie success. It’s important to note, however, that a very low number of receivers break the top 25 in total points each year. Keep this in mind especially when drafting in redraft leagues.

Next, I plotted rookie receivers’ average draft position (ADP by WRs, not overall) against their final fantasy ranking. We see that there is a fairly strong relationship between the two variables—most WRs taken early finish in the top 50. We do see a good number of misses, in the case of players like Puka Nacua, who finished high above his draft position. On the contrary, we see a very low number of misses, with players like Quentin Johnston or Treylon Burks who were drafted early and produced poor numbers.

*Since 2019, 28 of the 48 rookie receivers (58.3%) projected within the top 75 WRs (by ADP) have finished higher than where they were drafted.

Next, we will perform some retrospective analysis by mapping out receiver results by their fantasy draft positions. For each sector (range of 10 draft positions), I plotted the number of players who finished better, equal, or worse compared to where they were selected. Our major takeaways:

1. With a low sample size, it is difficult to tell, but rookie receivers ranked very highly (1-30) are a risk come draft day (50% success in the past four years).
2. All other tiers of rookie receivers show great results—just over 90% of rookie receivers in the ADP range of 30-80 (for receivers) finish as good or better than they were projected. 48% finish better than projected.

When we apply this same lens to non-rookie receivers, we get very different results. Some takeaways:

1. WRs ranked in the top 10 (ADP) tend to perform accordingly.
2. WRs ranked 10-19 (ADP) have a high fail rate (49%).
3. Selecting non-rookie receivers later in the draft is risky, as there is a much higher fail rate (only 42% perform better).

Finally, let’s take a look at where rookie receivers have fallen in the past four years—most have ended up being fantasy-irrelevant, finishing between 40 and 49 among WRs. However, a good number of them do fall in the WR2 range, ranked between 10 and 29 (25%).

Conclusion

In redraft fantasy football leagues, the data suggests a cautious approach to drafting rookie receivers, especially in the early rounds. Non-rookie players consistently demonstrate higher success rates when selected high, indicating that taking a rookie receiver early does not typically confer a significant advantage. However, selecting rookie WRs in later rounds can be a strategically sound move. These late-round rookies often exceed expectations relative to their draft positions, offering potential value and upside that can enhance a fantasy roster effectively. As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter if you have any questions!