The 2023 NFL season starts on Thursday, August 3, 2023, with the Browns vs. the Jets. While some say they won’t bet on the pre-season, many NFL handicapping experts say there is more value in betting on the pre-season than in any other sport! One handicapper we know agrees it is our very own Ralph Michaels, who has OWNED the NFL preseason, hitting 67.4% of his selections in NFLX the past seven years, including hitting 76.6% of his Best Bets rated 4% or higher! In this video Kelly "Kelly in Vegas" Stewart" and Ralph "the Pen" Michaels sit down and go over their tips when betting on the NFL preseason and value and edges you can find to help beat your bookmaker.
🏈 HANDICAPPING THE NFL PRESEASON NOTES
1. OVERVIEW – how handicapping the Preseason has changed the last several seasons.
A. Covid with no PRE and now only 3 games.
B. Rookie QBs
1) (from 2013-2020, Six rookies started game #1)
2) Trevor L, Zach W & Mack J started – Justin F and Trey L played)
3) In 2022 only one QB in F3 (Kenny Pickett) rounds, so not the same
4) 2023 will see several
3. TOP SIX
A. Coaches – including OC’s & DC’s
1. Best & Worst. What to look for in 1st year
2. New OC’s & DC’s when changing schemes
B. QB rotations
1. Best Groups
2. #3 QB with exp is a buy sign
3. The number on the roster
4. A mobile QB at the back of the rotation is a positive
C. Information and whether to use it
1. Elite QB’s mean #1 OL
2. Game planning
3. Track which coaches follow through and which use “coach speak”
D. Records – true of fake
1. Teams with good records but were deceiving
2. Teams that were poor records but bad luck
E. Stats – what to look for
1. QB Preseason stats for the L2Y
2. Offensive and defensive sacks
3. PPG and YPF diff
F. Scheduling & Situations
1. How off HOF Game and game #2 off win vs off loss has changed
2. Prepping like a reg season game
3. Teams that face each other in the reg season
4. Unique travel & QB injuries
5. 2-0 vs 0-2 teams
THE WAGERTALK 2023 NFL PRESEASON GUIDE
2023 QB Rotations – includes starts both career and with the current team, career games played, and seasons with the current team.
2023 Schedule Team Logs – game-by-game logs since 2016 with lines and totals. Bold – won game SU. Excludes 2020 (no Preseason – covid)
Year by Year SU, ATS, and O/U records plus Head Coaches, OC’s, and DC’s. The gray highlight is consecutive seasons.
Preseason QB Stats for the L2Y. Sorted by Yards, Highlight is still with the current team.
AND MUCH MORE…..
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