MLB Wednesday parlay at mega (+957) odds today 6/28: A bad spot for Kodai Senga

Welcome to another busy Wednesday in Major League Baseball. The day begins with a 12:20 PM first pitch in Atlanta between the Twins and Braves and goes through the afternoon until the final first pitch of the day takes place in Oakland between the Yankees and Athletics. With so many games on, I’ve crafted a 3-team parlay that pays out at over 9/1 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Below is my mega parlay, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks in addition to my best YRFI/NRFI bets.

Brewers ML (+125)

Rangers -1.5 (+100)

Angels -1.5 (+135)

Parlay odds: +957

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Milwaukee Brewers ML (+125) over New York Mets

I can’t believe the Mets are doing this again. Didn’t they learn their lesson last time? Allow me to explain. Kodai Senga has been an excellent addition to New York’s starting rotation. With a 3.52 ERA and a 3.90 xERA, he’s having a solid rookie season. Some Japanese pitching stars who transition to Major League Baseball struggle to acclimate because of the different-sized ball and the workload. Senga has shown no issues with gripping the baseball, evidenced by his forkball, but he has shown that he isn’t ready to pitch on 4 days of rest. He has primarily started with 5 or 6 days of rest, which is similar to what he would get in Japan, but the Mets are going to try and start him on 4 days of rest on Wednesday. New York has done this only 1 other time this season, and it was a disaster. He lasted only 2.2 innings and allowed 4 hits, 3 runs, 1 home run and 5 walks to the Blue Jays. It’s simple – 4 days of rest is not enough. But what are the Mets going to do on Wednesday? Exactly what they shouldn’t.

Senga starting on 4 days of rest alone makes me want to side with the Brewers, but add the fact that Wade Miley is starting for Milwaukee, and I’m 100% in. At 36 years old, Miley has been surprisingly effective this season with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He’s made only 10 starts since he missed a month of action with a lat injury, but since returning, Miley has been lights out. He’s thrown back-to-back shutouts against the Pirates and Guardians as the lefty surrendered just 5 hits in those 11 innings. Miley has a great chance to make it 3 shutouts in a row because the Mets’ offense is not only slumping, but they also have struggled against left-handed pitching. New York owns a 86 wRC+ and a 26.7% strikeout rate against southpaws in June heading into Tuesday night’s game. I had the Brewers projected as slight favorites, so I’ll happily take them at plus odds.

Texas Rangers -1.5 (+100) over Detroit Tigers

If I had to choose a lefty that I fade more often than Patrick Corbin, it would be Joey Wentz. The Detroit starter has been horrific this season with a 6.72 ERA and a 5.47 xERA paired with a 5.46 FIP. He also has just a 63 ERA+, so all signs point to Wentz not having a good season. He’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in June and will have to travel to the hitter’s paradise known as Globe Life Field for Wednesday’s start. This will be the southpaw’s first trip to Arlington this season, but it won’t be his first start against the Rangers. At the end of May, Texas knocked Wentz around in Detroit for 7 hits in 4.1 innings but managed to only get 1 run across – an odd occurrence from a powerful lineup. It only gets worse for Wentz too because he’s been worse on the road than at Comerica Park this year. In 6 starts away from home, the lefty is 1-5 with a 7.48 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average.

The Rangers were one of baseball’s best offenses in April and May, and they’ve continued that trend in June. That’s been especially true against lefties as Texas owns a 124 wRC+ against southpaws in June which is the 5th-best mark in that span. Between Marcus Semien at the top of the order, Corey Seager having an MVP-caliber season and the incredible production from the bottom half of their order, the Rangers have formed one of the most balanced and powerful lineups in the league. On the hill for the home team will be Dane Dunning, who is 4-1 with a 3.16 ERA since being moved into the starting rotation. Based on his advanced metrics, he is due for some negative regression, but he continues to run from it. In his last 13 innings against the Blue Jays and Yankees, Dunning has allowed only 4 runs and 11 hits. Until a team really gets to Dunning, I’m going to keep backing him and expect more damage against Wentz from the Texas lineup. 

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Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+135) over Chicago White Sox

Jaime Barria is extremely underrated. The Angels arm has switched between the bullpen and starting rotation this season, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be a permanent member of the Angels rotation. As a reliever, Barria has posted a 1.67 ERA in 27 innings and has limited hitters to a .196 batting average. That led him to make a few appearances as a starter, and in 4 outings, Barria has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.086 WHIP. Opponents have just a .222 batting average and a .279 on-base percentage against the right-hander when he starts. He has an excellent slider, fastball and changeup combination which should work well against a White Sox order that ranks 30th against sliders, 23rd against fastballs and 27th against changeups. Essentially, the White Sox struggle against everything that Barria throws.

Lucas Giolito on the road is different from Lucas Giolito at home. In the South Side of Chicago, Giolito has a 2.36 ERA with a 0.906 WHIP and has limited hitters to a .199 batting average. However, in 8 starts on the road, the right-hander has a 4.64 ERA with a 1.547 WHIP and is allowing a .271 batting average. And even worse for Giolito is that he is facing an Angels offense that has a 134 wRC+ in June before Tuesday’s game. I’ve stayed away from Los Angeles this season because of their inconsistency, but with Barria on the mound for them and their offense facing a pitcher who struggles on the road, I’ll take them to win by a few runs.

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