How The Bucs Can Beat The Texans’ Offense

With the Bucs upcoming matchup against the Texans, I thought it would be fun to look at some of Houston’s tendencies on offense and defense to try and build a game plan of how to limit their success. Most of the data pulled for this comes from the excellent research done by Arjun Menon who has previously interned with both Pro Focus Football and the New York Jets. You can find much of this data here.

When The Texans Are On Offense

On defense the Bucs can do a few things to help pose problems for the Texans offense.

Be Prepared For The Bucs To Stop The Run on First Down

The Texans are tops in the league when running the ball on 1st down in neutral situations, opting to gain yards on first down over 73% of the time. They aren’t great at it with a success rate of 33% ranking them 23rd in the league. The Bucs should be prepared to run out their base defense (three linemen, four linebackers, four defensive backs) on first down throughout the game. This matchup should also play well for Bucs head coach Todd Bowles’ preference to run cover-3 looks with a rolled-up safety in the box. I would use strong safety Ryan Neal in this roll and not run a bunch of rolling disguised looks as Bowles has often done this year.

Put Bucs’ NT Vita Vea in the 3-technique/4-i In Over Fronts On Early Downs

The Texans run the ball on first and ten 62% of the time. If they line up under center (which they do 60% of the time) that number goes up to 71% of the time. They also find the most success when running through the right “B” gap behind right guard (and former Buc) Shaq Mason.

Over 60% of the Texans’ runs off right guard have been successful runs. Most of the time when a team is using a tight end in 11 of 21 personnel (as the Texans do over 83% of the time on 1st/2nd down) he will be lined up off the right tackle. The Bucs should run over fronts putting the 3-technique tackle “over” to that side of the ball with Vea playing that role. This would put the Bucs’ best run defender in direct conflict with their most successful runs. This would require the Bucs to use Greg Gaines more on early downs and rotate Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall on the backside.

HOU has had their most success running the ball behind RG Shaq Mason. Would love to see the Bucs run a similar front with Vea playing a 3t/4i and Gaines as the NT with Kancey/Hall as the backside 4i. pic.twitter.com/Kvw2VaKmXZ

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023

Test Texans Center Michael Deiter

This should go without saying, but the Bucs must pick on Houston’s weak spots. The Texans have been ravaged by injuries on their offensive line. They have lost three centers to the injured reserve already this year in veteran Scott Quessenberry and rookie 2nd round pick Juice Scruggs prior to the season, and now rookie 6th round pick Jarrett Patterson just this week. Per Ourlads, the team is now turning to Michael Deiter.

Deiter has 19 uninspiring snaps this season and previously oscillated between bad and average over three years with the Dolphins. The Bucs should test Deiter by running some of their “Double Mug” looks where they bring both inside linebackers into the a-gaps in order to test Deiter’s ability to effectively call the line protections and see how well he can handle two faster, more agile pass rushers.

#gobucs run double mug very well. TB uses this look a lot where JTS and LVD would drop (CAR #50 and 49), SHaq would play the role of Burns off DEF left side (CAR #0), VIta from 1t (CAR #95) and Kancey from 3t (CAR #96) pic.twitter.com/3wl4cwOnsF

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023

Don’t Fear The Deep Ball

Texans’ rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked promising to start the season, but there are still elements to his game that the Texans are either shying away from all together or have not incorporated into their gameplan as of yet. One of those elements is throwing deep. Per PFF, Stroud has only attempted 19 passes of 20+ air yards or more on the season. That is 25th in the NFL and accounts for just 8% of his total throws (tied for 23rd among all quarterbacks with at least that many attempts).

Last week against the Panthers Houston only attempted three deep shots of 20+ air yards. All three came off of play-action with motion attached pre-snap.

CJ Stroud attempted just three passes of 20+ air yards last week against CAR. All 3 came off of PA with a pre-snap motion. 2 were with an orbit-return motion at the snap. pic.twitter.com/bqLYHIgVJi

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023

Play Bucs’ Corners Closer To The Ball

This works off of the last point. The Bills ate the Bucs defense up last week in part because the Bucs were playing too far off the ball. Routinely Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean were lined up on the outside 10 yards off the line of scrimmage with immediate bails after the snap. Bills quarterback Josh Allen was able to take advantage of this all game long with quick throws to wide open receivers in the flats for easy gains on catch and runs.

If the #GoBucs play off like this against HOU Stroud can/will take advantage. https://t.co/vmBgy3yihR pic.twitter.com/caAbfnUrlg

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023

Allen had an average depth of target of just 6.2 yards, but his yards per attempt was a healthy 8.1 because many of those throws were high-success rate throws with easy yards after catch built on top. Additionally, it helped Allen keep his time to throw down (2.38 seconds). 30 of his 39 attempts had an average time to throw of 1.81 seconds or less. This negated the ability for the Bucs pass rush to even attempt to get home. Similarly, Stroud isn’t afraid to hit a wide-open receiver underneath and allow their ability to gain extra yards help his offense move down the field.

Interesting dichotomy between how CAR plays each side of this. To the top they get their outside CB closer to the line and muddy the routes. On the bottom it’s a soft coverage similar to the Bucs. Stroud immediately decides he likes the soft spot drop look better. pic.twitter.com/c5dr2PU6DE

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023

The Texans’ pass game features over 61% of their throws going nine yards down the field or less. If the Bucs choose to play off-zone similar to how they did against Buffalo it could be death by a thousand cuts.

Be Ready To Jump Out Routes on Third Down

Early in the HOU/CAR matchup the Texans were able to convert mutliple 3rd downs bc CAR was playing their corners off and HOU went to speed/quick outs. CAR adjusted their corners to play closer to the line and HOU wasn’t able to go back to the well. pic.twitter.com/MO4ykZcCWE

— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) November 2, 2023