Articles baker mayfield Best Sports Picks Chris Godwin Dave Canales Featured Mike Evans Rachaad White Trey Palmer Tristan Wirfs

Film Review Week 8: Bucs Offense vs. Bills – First Half

October 30, 2023
financialfreedomllc20

The Bucs offense had opportunities to put up more than just 18 points in their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Buffalo Bills. In order to illustrate this point, over a two-part series I thought it would be best to go drive-by-drive into the offense and highlight the highs and lows contributing to its current state of affairs. I will break up the series into the first and second half of the game.

Drive One

The Bucs opened the game on their own 27-yard line. They started the first drive in familiar fashion with a pistol run. The result was anything but familiar, actually. Thanks to good lateral push from the offensive line and a decisive cut and drive from running back Rachaad White, the Bucs offense was able to lead off with six yards. They followed that play up with a man-beater that got multiple receivers open. And quarterback Baker Mayfield found receiver Trey Palmer over the middle with a tight-window throw.

The throw and catch netted a first down and offensive coordinator Dave Canales decided to press the envelope with a “dog” concept with Chris Godwin running a shallow out from the slot underneath Mike Evans’ deep corner from the one. This put vertical stress on the outside corner in a Cover 2 scheme and opened Evans up on what would have been a 20-yard pass.

Then the snowball began. A false start penalty on Tristan Wirfs put the Bucs offense in a 2nd & 15 situation. Tampa Bay tries to pick up some yards with a quick bubble screen to Trey Palmer, but the play never got off the ground due to Palmer slipping and Deven Thompkins blowing his block. For what it’s worth, Thompkins has missed multiple blocks on the perimeter for screens this season. If Canales is going to integrate bubble/perimeter screens into his offense, he needs to make sure his smallest receiver is not a part of the frontside blocking scheme.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Faced with a 3rd & 15, Mayfield tries to find tight end Cade Otton over the middle on a short curl to just gain a few yards and set up a coffin corner punt. Otton got the ball knocked out of his hands and the drive was over.

Major Success/Failure Points: The Mayfield pass to Evans and the false start doomed the drive. Play structure for the passes was solid as Mayfield had his first read open on every pass attempt. Pass protection was good for the drive and Mayfield made one good throw followed by one questionable one (as you can see from my tweet, it’s hard to say if it was Mayfield or Evans who was truly to blame). Play sequencing was OK, but on the Wirfs false start, he jumped into a run set on 2nd & 10. It could have been a play-action call, but Canales has been known to run on 2nd and long.

Drive Two

The Bucs led off their 2nd drive of the game halfway through the first quarter with a slightly out-of-the-box play call that gained 14 yards on a Godwin end around. On the ensuing play, they go back to the traditional run well with an inside zone. The Bills had a light box against the Bucs’ seven-man offensive front, so the play had a chance to succeed, but left guard Aaron Stinnie tripped coming off of his double team leaving an unblocked linebacker in the hole for White to try to contend with. The result was just a two-yard gain.

On the next play, the Bucs attempted a designed flat screen to White with Cade Otton, Ko Kieft and Rakim Jarrett. Otton lands his block and Jarrett obliterates the cornerback on a snatch-and-trap, but Kieft lets his mark go by and White gets a minimal gain.

On 3rd & 5, Baker tried to find Cade Otton deep over the middle on a seam route with a layered throw that is typically a throw he struggles with. The pass was incomplete, but Buffalo was called for defensive pass interference, a 21-yard infraction that gave the Bucs a new set of downs and set them up at the Bills’ 40-yard line.

Following a one-yard run by Ke’Shawn Vaughn, the Bucs avoided near disaster with a botched shotgun snap that Mayfield deftly recovered and launched a purposeful incomplete pass to avoid a loss of yards. For what it’s worth, had the snap been clean, Mayfield most likely would have found Evans hot for a quick 5-7 yards in the face of a safety blitz off the edge.

On 3rd & 9, Baker hit Evans on a quick slant. This set up a 4th & 2, where head coach Todd Bowles elected to take a field goal that was blocked.

Major Success/Failure Points: Play designs were effective, but again I have some small concerns with personnel usage (Thompkins as a lead blocker on a screen). More first down runs, which has been a main sticking point for me all season.

The other factor in stalling the drive is Bowles’ decision to opt for the field goal on 4th & 2 from the Bills’ 32. I understand going for it in that situation would be extremely aggressive (and I readily admit that I am biased toward that thinking), but there was a good case to be made for the road underdog being aggressive in that situation.

Drive Three

After stopping the Bills offense with a great goal line stand, the Bucs offense was tasked with the difficult challenge of trying to drive 99 yards for a touchdown. They would not accomplish that mission. To begin, Tampa Bay ran for two yards to try and create some space between them and the goal line.

On second down, Mayfield had a mesh concept develop against zone that saw Evans get open on an underneath drag. Mesh is more of a man beater, which is what Canales probably thought they would be facing. Evans was the second or third read and ultimately that caused Baker to be late on potentially getting Evans the ball. Mayfield tried to get the ball to Chase Edmonds as a checkdown, but the pass felt incomplete as Edmonds had a Bills defender draped all over him.

On third down, Canales dialed up a good play call to get Palmer behind the linebackers on an over route, but Bills linebacker Terrell Bernard made a hell of a play to deflect the pass. Sometimes the defense just makes a good play.

Major Success/Failure Points: The first down run was understandable here. The mesh against zone can be a net-negative attributed to Canales. The final play of the drive was a good design and a good throw where the defender just made a great play.

Drive Four

Now down 10-0, the Bucs started the fourth drive at their own 25 with back-to-back pistol runs that combine for just four yards. In both instances, an offensive linemen got moved too far laterally into the designed hole and some hesitation from White limited the possible outcome.

On 3rd & 6, Canales dialed up a beauty of a play. Using Palmer’s speed from the number two position to the right, he attacked a Cover-4 look from Buffalo with a clear route that drew both the outside corner and deep safety. That left the deep outside hole shot open for Godwin to exploit on a deep out from the three position.

Bucs RB Rachaad White

Bucs RB Rachaad White – Photo by: USA Today

The 31-yard gain put the Bucs in great field position at the Bills’ 40-yard line. They followed that up with a run where White was able to press a crease, find the outside and get up field for an impressive 26-yard gain. Unfortunately, a holding penalty on Palmer turned 1st & 10 at the Buffalo 14 into 1st & 13 at the Buffalo 43.

A false start on right tackle Luke Goedeke pushed it back even further to 1st & 18 from the 48. That’s a 34-yard swing. The next play, Canales had a Cover 3 beater dialed up that would have Mayfield hit Jarrett on a 13-yard out against a leveraged corner protecting a deep third. But Jarrett was unable to come down with the pass.

The next play saw Baker hit Godwin on a short curl to get half the needed yardage back setting up a 3rd & 9. On that play, Evans had a quick win at the line of scrimmage but Mayfield was unable to get him a clean pass due to right guard Cody Mauch allowing pressure. The Bucs would finish the drive with a 57-yard field goal.

Major Success/Failure Points: Play design was fantastic and even held back by the 1st & 18 situation, Canales was able to dial up several plays to give the offense a chance at continuing the drive. Back-to-back penalties were the real drive killer here.

Drive Five

The Bucs were set up in fantastic position after a forced turnover, beginning their fifth drive at the Buffalo 23. Canales started the drive off with a fantastic play call, running a play action screen to White that picked up 20 yards and put the team in a 1st & Goal situation.

On the very next play, Mayfield hit Godwin on a quick slant that featured a good throw and a fantastic contested catch to tie the game at 10-all.

Major Success/Failure Points: Canales was in his bag with the play-action screen pass to set up the scoring play. Execution by the offense was on point for both plays.

Drive Six

This was possibly the most maddening offensive drive I have seen in quite some time. Let me set the scene for you. The Bucs had just allowed a touchdown to go down 17-10. There is 2:40 left in the first half and the Bucs get the ball back on their own 25-yard line. I understand the idea of balance and with 160 seconds left on the clock, the Bucs’ coaching staff was likely thinking of how to ensure Buffalo didn’t get the ball back with sufficient time to score again.

But that goal should be secondary to… scoring as many points as possible yourself. So, when Canales dialed up his eighth first down run of the game, I didn’t agree with it, but I understood it. Nevertheless, he did call it, with a small variation coming out of traditional shotgun from a more spread-out look. The shotgun counter call worked as White found a crease for 15 yards to start the drive off well.

The follow up was a seven-yard pass to White in the right flat to get the ball near midfield. Following the two-minute warning, the Bucs decided to continue to integrate their run game, but Mauch got caught off-balance coming off his double team trying to take Bills’ linebacker Tyrel Dodson shooting the gap. Dodson was able to blow up the run for no gain and set up a third down.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

Mayfield hit Godwin on a quick five-yard speed out to get the Bucs into plus-territory and a new set of downs. Now, keep in mind they also allowed 40 seconds to tick off the clock before they snapped the ball. The ensuing play saw Tampa Bay’s offense work with more urgency getting the snap off in just 25 seconds. After passing up his first read on a stick concept to the left, Mayfield found White on a checkdown over the middle for six yards. The Bucs used their second timeout of the half with 47 seconds left on the clock.

Coming out of the timeout, Goedeke committed another false start turning a 2nd & 4 into a 2nd & 9. Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver would blow up Mauch on a bull rush to get to Mayfield for a sack and a six-yard loss. This put the Bucs offense into a bad spot at 3rd & 15. Mayfield hit Otton on a check release underneath a Bills defense dropping everyone deep to protect the first down. Otton was able to get a catch and run for 12 yards, putting the Bucs in 4th & 3 at the Buffalo 41.

This would have led to a 58-yard field goal attempt. The Bucs had already hit from 57 earlier in the game and they lined up for the attempt. That attempt was a sham as they could not draw the Bills offsides, but rather than call a timeout with one second left on the play clock, Bowles elected to take a delay of game and punt. Remember when I said goal one when on offense should be to score points? When asked about it after the game Bowles gave his reasoning for the course of action as this:

Bucs HC Todd Bowles

Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photo by: USA Today

“It was too much for a field goal, we were going to take a penalty there. And then were sitting there going for it, but if we don’t get it they have a field goal in mind. And with a 17-10 ballgame at the time we figured we’d still have a ballgame instead of giving it away in the first half.”

Excuse me? Your kicker had previously hit from 57 earlier in the same quarter so the wind conditions were likely similar. And for a guy who routinely preaches that he “trusts” his defense when defending other decisions to not go for it on fourth down, he basically said, “I don’t trust my defense to stop the opposing offense from going 12 yards in 19 seconds.”

And while I’m on it, can we just put to bed the whole “I trust my defense” bit? Coaches use it all the time to justify scared decision-making, but the logic is flawed and backward. If you truly trust your defense, then you shouldn’t be afraid to put them in a more challenging position in the event your offense is unsuccessful at converting a fourth down attempt. Making a decision that in effect gives your defense more field to protect is not trusting them at all. Please stop using this cop out.

Major Success/Failure Points: The coaching decisions made throughout this drive were criminal and it led to the Bucs not scoring at all. It was embarrassing to say the least. The play-call sequencing backed the team up and the pre-snap penalty on Goedeke was a backbreaker.

Bucs Offense Overall First Half Takeaways

Bucs RB Rachaad White and QB Baker Mayfield

Bucs RB Rachaad White and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

I agree with Bowles during his post-game presser that penalties were possibly the biggest issue the team had on offense in the first half. They lost 49 yards to penalties, while a big run was wiped out and three drives ended up stalling in large part due to them.

Quarterback play in the first half was average to solid. Mayfield had the big-time throw to Palmer, but missed Evans for the big gain on the ensuing play. The offensive line pass protected very well as Mayfield was only pressured a few times. Stinnie and Mauch allowed a couple of pressures overall and the line play would have supported nine traditional runs for 56 yards had the big gainer not been negated by Palmer’s holding penalty.

Play construct in the passing game was great and it created two explosive passes in the Godwin deep out and the White screen. The play sequencing was pretty good from second down on, but was extremely frustrating on first downs where they called eight runs to just six passes.

For what it’s worth, while this was the most success the Bucs had running the ball this season, the team’s expected points added per play on first down runs for the first half was -0.0106 and they were successful by EPA standards on just 37.5% of those plays. By contrast, the team was successful on 67% of their pass calls in the first half on first down and had an EPA/play of +0.363.

Mayfield finished the first half 11-of-20 for 118 yards and a touchdown. He had a turnover-worthy play in the over-the middle pass to Palmer that was deflected, and although that was a good decision and a great play by the defender, it was an inaccurate pass overall. He also missed on the Evans deep ball but was also let down by the Jarrett drop. The running game was more efficient than in weeks past.

Across the NFL, teams average about two points per drive. The Bucs fell short of this in the first half, netting only 1.67 points per drive. But the opportunities to score more were there. Better decision-making and fewer penalties probably get the offense 3-10 more points and shows a more efficient offense.

The post Film Review Week 8: Bucs Offense vs. Bills – First Half appeared first on Pewter Report.

https://www.pewterreport.com/film-week-8-bucs-offense-bills-first-half/

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet