Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 9

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 9!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• The New York Giants have struggled mightily to start the year, dealing with injuries and inconsistent quarterback play early in the season. Despite that, Saquon Barkley has been the only bright spot in this offense, producing three RB1 performances in his five healthy games. Similar to last season, he continues to be the focal point for the Giants, averaging an impressive 50.5% opportunity share since returning from injury. To put that number into perspective, the RB2 in that metric is Josh Jacobs, who is nearly 10 percentage points lower at 40.5%. As a result, it should not come as a surprise that Barkley is the RB2 in my Expected Fantasy Points model over the last four weeks with 20.2 xFP. In addition, as you can see above, Barkley has some room for positive regression as he has also averaged -5.7 Fantasy Points Over Expected. And against a Raiders defense that has allowed the third most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the running back position, I expect him to have a very efficient game this week. 

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