Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 15

Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 15!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

• Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.

What do these metrics tell us?

• My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
• Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP ideally.
• xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value.
• While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

• Kyren Williams has been the RB1 in Expected Points over the last four weeks, leading the Rams’ backfield in routes (64%), opportunity share (40.3%), and targets per route run (20%). To put his usage into perspective, the average value of his opportunities equates to 19.2 Expected Points, which is 16.4% higher than the RB2 in my usage model – Christian McCaffrey.  And if you need even more confidence in starting Williams, the Rams are set to face a Commanders defense that has allowed a top-10 running back performance in each of their last four matchups. With the game script likely favoring the Rams’ running game, I fully expect Williams to receive over 20 opportunities yet again in Week 15.

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