Bucs’ Bet On Youth Likely To Bust

The Bucs have made their final cut downs to field their initial 53-man roster. And while much of the roster was a given, but there were some surprises. We knew the team wanted to get younger and more athletic this year, but the end results surprised even the most attuned follower of the Bucs.

So Bucs will have six undrafted rookies on their initial 53 — RB Sean Tucker, WR Rakim Jarrett, OLB Markees Watts, nickel Christian Izien, CB Derrek Pitts and S Kaevon Merriweather. Not sure I’ve ever heard of that many on any NFL team in one season.

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) August 29, 2023

The team will roster an astounding 13 rookies to begin the season. That includes seven of Tampa Bay’s eight draft picks and six undrafted free agents. Last year the Bucs had the oldest roster in the NFL with an average age of 27.1 years. The year prior they were 30th at 26.7. This year, based on my back-of -the-napkin math, the Bucs’ initial 53-man roster this year will sport an average age of 25.6 years, shaving off 1.4 years per player.

Rookies Helping Bucs Get Younger

Those 13 rookies are doing the heavy lifting in terms of de-aging the Bucs roster. But is counting on this many first-year players really evidence that the Bucs are “reloading” as they claim to be? Most rookies do not have a significant positive impact on their team’s performance. Many can actually be a net negative as they learn the speed and level of play of the NFL.

The Bucs are placing no less than five in significant roles as either starters or key backups who will rotate heavily (Kancey, Mauch, Diaby, Palmer, Izien). That’s a lot of faith in a group of players who have not played a regular season down as of yet.

But what are the odds that all of these players will live up to the expectations the team has of them?

All of them? 

The odds are infinitesimal.

Early Draft Picks Are Likely To Stick And Play

The players the Bucs drafted on day one and two are likely to get extended looks and opportunities to prove they are NFL players. There are two reasons for this. The first is the potential each displays.

There is a reason the Bucs selected each using their premium picks. Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, offensive guard Cody Mauch and outside linebacker Yaya Diaby all have elite athletic traits and enough good film in college to have warranted their selections early in the draft. The Bucs will give them every opportunity to translate those gifts to the NFL level.

The other reason is the investment the team has already made in those players. In using premium picks on those players, general manager Jason Licht has put his reputation as a player evaluator on the line. He needs to justify that reputation by having these picks work out.

On top of that the Bucs have made significant financial investments in some of these players. Kancey’s entire $15 million deal is fully guaranteed. Two thirds of Mauch’s deal is guaranteed.

The Bucs need to recoup some of these draft pick and financial investments in the form of quality play. That’s part of the reason why last year’s second-round pick Luke Goedeke is being given the opportunity to start this year at right tackle despite objectively horrid play last year during his rookie campaign.

Kancey will be asked to start, and that is fair. Most first-round selections are placed in the starting lineup immediately.

Some Later Round Picks Being Asked To Step Into Significant Roles Early

When a team drafts a player using a day-three pick or signs that play as an undrafted free agent the thought process is the player has a trait or two the team hopes they can develop. In time and with that development the player can become a contributor on the field.

If they thought the player could be a starter or significant contributor early, they wouldn’t risk losing that player to another team by waiting to select them. Significant quality contributors are hard to come by in the NFL.

To see the Bucs give several later round players roles that will necessitate significant contributions should both excite fans AND cause for concern. Rookie sixth-round pick Trey Palmer is already being crowned the “next big thing” in Tampa Bay due to a strong preseason. But the odds that he is ready to be WR3 his rookie year are certainly low.

Only nine rookie receivers reached the 50-target threshold last year. Eight of them were day one or two picks. The lone exception was Green Bay’s Romeo Dobbs, a fourth-round pick. The year it was again only nine receivers who reached the 50-target plateau as rookies. Again, only one was a day three pick. Again, it was a fourth-round pick (Detroit’s Amon Ra St. Brown).

Yes, Palmer is talented. And yes, based on the very small sample-size of early training camp/preseason returns it looks like the Bucs may have gotten a steal when they selected him in the sixth round. But trusting a sixth-round pick, or a second-year undrafted free agent (Deven Thompkins) or a rookie undrafted free agent (Rakim Jarrett) to be WR3 is a big gamble.

Add to that head coach Todd Bowles has announced rookie undrafted free agent Christian Izien as the starting nickel. Izien is plenty athletic but did not hit his stride until his last year at Rutgers. And even then his best season didn’t have enough to get him a draftable grade. The likelihood he is a starting-caliber player in the NFL is remote.

Even The Slam Dunks Are Anything But

Of the 32 players selected in the second round last year less than half were asked to be starters. Very few of those could be considered consistent, reliable starters. It doesn’t happen that often. Second-round players typically fall into one of two categories.

The first are players drafted to be depth pieces in year one who hopefully take over in year two. The second are guys who are asked to start right away and struggle as they learn the pace and level of play of the NFL. By year two they have the requisite experience and development to hopefully make a big leap.

The Bucs are (for the second consecutive year) looking for a rookie second round pick to step into their offensive line and be a quality player from the jump. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No.

Cody Mauch is probably going to struggle this year. And that happens more than Bucs fans will likely admit. Alex Cappa struggled his first year and didn’t play much.

Luke Goedeke struggled so much he was eventually benched. Yes, Ali Marpet looked good from the start, but Donovan Smith didn’t. Most rookie offensive linemen aren’t good their first year. And the ones who do look good are typically first rounders. So the Bucs are gambling with Mauch on top of the receiver situation.

Bucs Better Stay Healthy

The reliance on rookies doesn’t stop with the players the Bucs are consciously deciding to give snaps to. It continues with how they have chosen to add those rookies as depth. One injury to either Antoine Winfield or Ryan Neal and undrafted free agent Kaevon Merriweather will be seeing snaps.

If Izien goes down sixth-round rookie Josh Hayes is likely to play significant snaps. The Bucs entire secondary past their starters is a who’s who of “who?” littered with players who were on nobody but the most ardent draftnik’s radar just 12-24 months ago.

With so much youth and inexperience and lack of pedigree littering the Bucs roster this year it is just simple math that the team is going to struggle as they rely on these young bodies. That’s not to say one or two, or even a few of these players hit to varying degrees.

But to expect all to live up to the roles they will be asked to play is a fool’s errand.