Bucs at Saints: Pewter Predictions For Week 4

BUCS at SAINTS

WHEN: Sunday, October 1, 2023 | WHERE: Caesars Superdome | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Chris Myers | ANALYST: Robert Smith | SIDELINE: Jen Hale

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions and offer up our game preview of this week’s matchup. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Bucs’ Pass Rush Gets To Jameis Winston

All eyes will be on Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore as they enter Round 7 of their heavyweight fight – the two have been going toe-to-toe since 2017. But the real rumble will be in the trenches between the Saints offensive line and the Bucs defensive front. Both units are licking their wounds. New Orleans’ offensive line has surrendered 12 sacks in three games, including one last week that knocked quarterback Derek Carr out.

After recording six sacks against Justin Fields in Week 2 the Bucs defense hardly got to Jalen Hurts on Monday night. Tampa Bay’s lone sack came after Hurts tripped on a play. They’ll want to make amends and atone for Monday’s lack of pressure. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka needs to show he can dominate left tackle Trevor Penning, who is not very good.

The Bucs should be able to take advantage of the Saints’ porous offensive line and sack Jameis Winton and pressure him into his interceptions. That’s the key to this week’s game. But Tampa Bay’s pass rush has to be smart, as New Orleans has a deadly screen game that features Alvin Kamara, who returns after a suspension. Being too eager to get to Winston could leave the Bucs defense vulnerable to a big game from Kamara. Having Devin White and Vita Vea at less than full strength doesn’t help up front.

Offensively, Evans needs to continue to dominate, but use his hands to catch touchdowns and not throw punches. Evans can’t let Lattimore get under his skin and get penalized and possibly ejected from the game again. Baker Mayfield needs to be turnover-free again and Rachaad White and the offensive line need to produce in the running game. Another perfect outing from Chase McLaughlin should give the Bucs a close, three-point win, a 3-1 record heading into the bye week and a 1-0 start in the NFC South.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 20, Saints 17
REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 3-0

Matt Matera: By Winning The Turnover Battle, Bucs Win The Game

This game isn’t even being played in Tampa on Sunday and yet you can still feel the tension building up within the city for the Bucs vs. Saints matchup. There’s nothing like a big fight feel in boxing or the UFC. We’re getting that in football as well in this bitter rivalry. No throw Jameis Winston back into the mix along with the always fiery Baker Mayfield in his first foray in a divisional battle and there could be even more fireworks.

Although the two former Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall picks won’t be face each other on the field at the same time, their abilities to control the turnover battle might be most important. Both have a propensity to play “hero ball,” meaning they sometimes attempt to do too much to get their team back in the game after trailing. That means they are more likely to turn the ball over, which Bucs fans are very familiar with when it comes to Winston.

If Mayfield can play turnover-free football, the Bucs should win. They’re already 2-0 when winning the turnover battle this season. Establishing the run hasn’t been the easiest for Tampa Bay, but the Bucs are not playing the Eagles anymore. I’m not saying they’re going to run for 175 yards, but I believe they’re going to be much improved on the ground.

While the pass rush wasn’t able to get home on Monday, the Bucs still have a respectable nine sacks on the season. The Saints offensive line isn’t as formidable as it once was, allowing 12 sacks through three games, which led to Derek Carr’s injury. The Bucs need to take advantage of this and get to the quarterback with their defensive front on Sunday.

Todd Bowles will blitz when he needs to, but I like the idea of the Bucs having more defensive backs in different looks to change the coverage. I’m looking for Zyon McCollum to make his first interception of the season after coming close in his first start. It’s never easy in the Big Easy, but I’m picking the Bucs to win on the road.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Saints 18
MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 2-1

Bailey Adams: Bucs Win A Third Straight Over Saints

The lack of clarity at the quarterback position for the Saints should make this a hard game to call, shouldn’t it? But all week, I just haven’t gotten that feeling. I’ve assumed it’ll be Jameis Winston under center for New Orleans, and I think the Bucs can force him into some mistakes and do enough offensively to escape with a win. And then, I’ve thought, even if Derek Carr suits up, I can’t imagine he’ll be near 100% after spraining the AC joint in his throwing shoulder just seven days ago.

I think the Bucs have it within themselves to beat either Saints quarterback, get to 3-1 and head into their early bye week with at least a share of the NFC South lead. And it’s not just the turnover-prone nature of Winston or the iffy health of Carr that gives me confidence in this Tampa Bay team this week.

The Bucs have rushed the passer pretty well this year. They have a deep rotation of edge rushers and some linebackers and safeties with elite blitzing ability. And if Vita Vea is healthy and able to play, he’ll cause trouble up the middle. New Orleans’ offensive line certainly isn’t Philly’s. The Saints have surrendered 12 sacks in three games, and that’s something Todd Bowles’ defense needs to expose.

Offensively, I like the Bucs to run the ball better this week. The Saints have a top-10 run defense, but it’s not the top unit in the league that the Eagles brought to town last week. Between a better day from Rachaad White, more explosive plays from Baker Mayfield and more involvement from Chris Godwin, I think Dave Canales’ offense does enough in this game to win it.

It’ll be another complementary football type of win for the Bucs, who need to keep getting takeaways while limiting their own giveaways. If they do that and contain the returning Alvin Kamara, chalk up a third straight win over the Saints.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Saints 20
ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 3-0

Josh Queipo: Bucs Lose Close One To Start A Losing Streak

Three weeks into the 2023 season and it isn’t time to have difficult conversations about the Bucs … yet. But it is time to start posing some uncomfortable questions. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales said on Thursday he was still going to be stubborn about running the ball. The uncomfortable question that needs to be asked is will he at least change up the spots where he runs the ball?

Later that night the Lions ran David Montgomery 32 times for 121 yards, averaging less than four yards per carry. For much of the game that average was closer to three. No one complained about their strategy not yielding results because Montgomery was often picking up three yards when only two were needed. Can Canales follow this model to manufacture greater success out of a struggling run game? I have my doubts.

The second uncomfortable question has to be about the Bucs thin depth on defense. The Eagles exposed it. The Saints have the ability to do likewise.

At this point I am very concerned with what the answers to these questions most likely are. The Saints are without their starting quarterback, Derek Carr, which will give the Bucs a puncher’s chance. But with the weapons the Saints will utilize (running back Alvin Kamara and receivers Michael Thomas and Chris Olave) matched up a banged-up Bucs back seven I think the Saints will clear the 20-point hurdle the Bucs offense has yet to do this season.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Saints 23, Bucs 20
QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 3-0

Adam Slivon: Bucs Survive Superdome, Defeat Saints

Heading into Week 4, the Bucs are primed to face the first of their many NFC South rivals in the Saints.

They line up with them perhaps at an opportune time as Derek Carr is officially questionable with a right shoulder injury. If he does play, he is unlikely to be 100%, and if he doesn’t, the Bucs’ defense would face Jameis Winston. 

Regardless of who is under center, it serves as a favorable opponent for the defense to continue getting takeaways despite their own injuries. Jamel Dean and Calijah Kancey are both out and Carlton Davis III, Vita Vea, and Devin White are questionable. If the latter trio does suit up, they should do enough chip to in and cause problems. 

Alvin Kamara returns at running back, but he hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry since 2020. The Saints offensive line has not gotten better, and the Bucs’ front seven is a lot more likely to generate pressure than they did against the Eagles.

Correspondingly, that only would give Baker Mayfield and the offense more chances to string together scoring drives. Chris Godwin is the X-Factor in this one as New Orleans’ secondary lacks depth behind Marshon Lattimore. Godwin has yet to find the end zone but I believe he does so this week.

Up front, New Orleans lacks experience outside of Cam Jordan, who has been quiet this season. If Luke Goedeke can neutralize him, plenty of lanes should be clear for Rachaad White to have the kind of success the team (and fans) have long been waiting for.

This game serves as a chance for the Bucs to have momentum heading into their early bye week. On paper, they have the edge in talent, and with the Saints uncertainty at quarterback, Tampa Bay looks primed to come out on top and start the season 3-1.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Saints 13
SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 3-0