2023 Mid-American Conference Season Preview & Best Bets: Toledo Poised to Repeat

Over the last 20 seasons, the Mid-American Conference has gone from one of the better Group of 5 conferences to a punching bag for programs looking for an early season non-conference win or a bowl win to end the season on a high note. This past bowl season, however, was a glimmer of hope for the MAC – as it finished with a 4-2 record and led all conferences in bowl winning percentage. Certainly, this is somewhat meaningless in the eyes of most, but the MAC had not posted a winning bowl record since 2011-2012 sans the shortened pandemic season. Many of the top programs return key contributors, including the defending-champion Toledo Rockets and the runner-up Ohio Bobcats, but Toledo’s journey back to the conference championship will not be easy – as it has been more than 10 years since a team has won back-to-back championships in the MAC.

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MAC Championship Odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing

Toledo Rockets (+175)

Ohio Bobcats (+290)

Buffalo Bulls (+700)

Miami (OH) RedHawks (+700)

Eastern Michigan Eagles (+900)

Northern Illinois Huskies (+1400)

Central Michigan Chippewas (+2100)

Akron Zips (+2900)

Ball State Cardinals (+4000)

Western Michigan Broncos (+4500)

Bowling Green Falcons (+4500)

Kent State Golden Flashes (+15000)

The defending MAC champion Toledo Rockets are favorites to repeat their success in 2023 despite no one being able pull off that feat in the last decade. The Bobcats are second on the oddsboard after falling just short to the Rockets in the championship game, and there is a significant tier break after them. Behind the Bobcats, Buffalo, Miami(OH), and Eastern Michigan are the only other teams in the conference with odds lower than 10-1. Northern Illinois represents the only program in the 10-1 to 20-1 range, while Central Michigan and Akron are the lone programs in the 20-1 to 30-1. Ball State, Western Michigan, and Bowling Green are currently listed at 40-1 or slightly longer, and Kent State figures to struggle replacing its head coach and every single offensive starter from last season – which reflects in their odds.

Contenders

Toledo Rockets

Jason Candle enters his 8th season as Toledo’s head coach after winning his second MAC title and first since 2017. He has plenty of returning pieces on the roster, starting with quarterback DeQuan Finn – arguably the conference’s best playmaker who compiled more than 2,900 total yards and 30 total touchdowns in 2022. Finn will operate behind an experienced offensive line that returns 3 interior starters along with 3 power conference transfers, and he will utilize a talented group of position players with 3 of Toledo’s top rushers and 2 of its top pass-catchers back in the mix. Running back Jacquez Stuart aided Finn’s dual-threat capabilities nicely last season by averaging 5.7 yards per carry and scoring 4 total touchdowns, and he should be a constant threat with the ball in his hands again this season. Through the air, Finn will love having his security blanket Jerjuan Newton back after he posted 53 catches, 830 yards, and 9 touchdowns. However, Finn has struggled with accuracy in his career and completed under 60% of his passes with 12 interceptions last season. He needs to continue year-to-year improvement in that department if the Rockets want to position themselves for back-to-back MAC titles. 

Toledo’s defense was the MAC’s best last season and 8 of its top 11 tacklers return. In addition to the highest mark in total defense, the Rockets were graded by PFF as the top unit in the MAC in run defense and coverage – as well as a top 3 unit in pass rush and tackling. Their run defense could take a bit of a hit with the departure of Desjuan Johnson, but their secondary remains one of the best in the Group of 5 with 3 safeties and 3 cornerbacks ranking in the top 5 in the MAC in pass coverage at their respective positions. In short, the defense can be relied upon, which is crucial considering Toledo has 3-straight road games against UMass, Ball State, and Miami (OH) in October, as well as back-to-back road games at Bowling Green and Central Michigan to end the season. However, the Rockets are head and shoulders above most, if not all of those teams in terms of talent and returning production. Their road game at Miami(OH) will be their toughest conference test, but it is one they should pass.

Ohio Bobcats 

Like Candle and the Rockets, Tim Albin and the Bobcats return a good bit of offensive production. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke will be back, though we are not exactly sure when. He sustained a knee injury against Ball State in late November and the injury has a recovery timeline of 9-12 months. CJ Harris played well in limited time behind Rourke, but he did not provide the Bobcats with the same upside in the passing attack. Rourke threw for over 3,200 yards with 25 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions last season while adding almost 250 rushing yards and 4 more scores on the ground. Whether it is Rourke or Harris taking snaps in Ohio’s Week 0 matchup against San Diego State, the Bobcats surround the quarterback position with talented playmakers and an offensive line that is made up mostly of redshirt seniors and graduate students. Running back Sieh Bangura is back after posting more than 1,300 total yards and 15 total touchdowns, and O’Shaan Allison will join him in the backfield following an injury. The wide receiver and tight end positions return most of their key pieces as well, including Sam Wiglusz and Jacoby Jones – who combined for over 1,500 yards and 17 total touchdowns in 2022. 

Unlike Toledo, Ohio was not very good defensively last year. There are plenty of experienced players in the mix with mostly seniors projected to be in starting roles, but the Bobcats lost their top 2 tacklers, 2 of their 3 leaders in sacks, and 2 of their 3 leaders in interceptions. The Bobcats were also last in the conference in yards per play, coverage, and tackling last season, as well as second worst in total defense and third worst in run defense per PFF. With the uncertainty of Rourke’s recovery timeline, the defense may be asked to step up more than it typically would – which is not something I would be very confident in as an Ohio-backer this fall. However, their schedule does offer some hope, as the Bobcats do not have any back-to-back road games nor do they play Toledo during the regular season. 

Miami(OH) Redhawks

Miami’s schedule is much more daunting than the previously mentioned teams, as the RedHawks will have 4 road games in the first 5 weeks and will have to play Toledo and Ohio in back-to-back weeks in October. Not to mention, they do not have a bye week until Week 10. However, the RedHawks do have Chuck Martin going into his 10th season, who is a head coach with a proven record of success in the conference in recent years. Injuries plagued Miami last year, especially at quarterback, but Brett Gabbert is back this season along with 2 of its top 3 pass-catchers and 9 of its top 11 tacklers from a season ago. The issue with Martin is that his offense is a bit outdated, which could hold the RedHawks back considering their schedule. 

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Teams to look out for

Buffalo Bulls

Coach Maurice Linguist returns to Buffalo for his third season after improving the Bulls from a 4-8 team to a 7-6 team. Continued progression is expected, but the Bulls have to work on consistency in order to seriously compete for the MAC title. They forced more than 25 turnovers last season, yet they won 4 games by just 1 score. Their top 3 wide receivers are gone, but their quarterback and top 2 rushers are back to go along with the conference’s best recruiting class. Defensively, linebacker Shaun Dolac returns after recording 147 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks, and safety Marcus Fuqua returns after accumulating 65 tackles and 7 interceptions in 2022. However, James Paterson and Keyshawn Cobb’s production will need to be replaced after combining for 186 tackles and 18 tackles for loss. Buffalo has to play Toledo, Ohio, and Miami in consecutive weeks late in the season, which is a span of games that will ultimately determine the Bulls’ ceiling in the conference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles

The Eagles were the second best offensive team in the MAC last season according to PFF, but a good bit of the offensive line needs to be replaced, as well as 2 of their top 3 receivers and their quarterback. Samson Evans returns at running back after posting 1,166 yards and 15 touchdowns on 249 carries. Otherwise, there are many question marks offensively. The defense will have 8 starters back in the mix, but allowed over 28 points per game last season and will have a new coordinator in Ben Needlam. Furthermore, the Eagles will have to replace the production of Jose Ramirez, who posted 19.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks last season. Being in the same division as Toledo makes it difficult to see the Eagles making the MAC championship game despite avoiding Ohio and Miami during the regular season.

Northern Illinois Huskies

NIU was not good last year, but quarterback Rocky Lombardi and wide receiver Travyvon Rudolph return from injury – which makes the Huskies worth a mention. While last season’s leading rusher and leading receiver are gone, the Huskies return 5 lineman that each played at least 450 snaps and running back Antario Brown – who had 689 yards and 7 touchdowns on 110 carries. Combined with Rudolph, who accumulated 892 yards and 7 touchdowns in a second team all-MAC season, Lombardi should have some pieces to work with this fall. NIU returns close to 80% of production from what was an average MAC defense, so that unit should not hinder the Huskies’ success this season – but 3 games against Toledo, Ohio, and Eastern Michigan over the course of 4 weeks early in the conference season might.

MAC best bet

Toledo Rockets to win the MAC (+175)

It is a chalky pick, but there are too many question marks behind the Rockets to pick another team to win this conference. We do not know exactly when Rourke will be back for Ohio, and the Bobcats are the only threat to the Rockets on paper at the moment. Sure, the travel situation is daunting considering the Rockets have 3 road games in a row in October as well as back-to-back road games to end the season, but travel within the MAC is not too strenuous with most schools in the same region. Furthermore, the Rockets return so much talent on both sides of the ball, which should propel them over inferior opponents even on the road. Toledo benefits from avoiding Ohio during the regular season, as well as playing its 2 biggest divisional threats in NIU and Eastern Michigan at home. Not to mention, this will be Toledo’s first meeting with Miami since 2011 – meaning coach Martin has not prepared for Toledo’s offense before. The Rockets just have to take care of business and avoid losing games they should win, which has been a theme for this program in the last couple of years.  Assuming they do, the Rockets should clear their win total – currently sitting at 8.5 – and be favored in the MAC championship. 

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