2023 AAC Conference Season Preview & Best Bets: Roadrunners keep rolling

The 2023 college football season is finally on the horizon. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on August 26 and won’t slow down until December. Last season’s National Championship game saw Georgia knock off TCU in lopsided fashion to claim its second straight national title. Could we see the Bulldogs 3-peat this season? It’s certainly possible.

With the offseason chaos in the rearview mirror, it’s time to delve into the futures market for each conference. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the American, a conference that is no stranger to making some noise against Power 5 opponents. There are a number of major contenders at the top, and I could conceivably see up to 5 teams potentially winning this league come December. This should be a league with plenty of strong offenses, with scoring galore all season long. Let’s take a look at the odds and best bets to make before the season starts.

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AAC Championship Odds

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing

Tulane (+210)
SMU (+340)
UTSA (+470)
Memphis (+600)
Florida Atlantic (+650)
Temple (+2400)
Navy (+2900)
East Carolina (+5000)
North Texas (+5000)
South Florida (+5500)
UAB (+6000)
Rice (+60100)

The American looks a bit different this season, as Houston and UCF have migrated to the Big 12. However, the defending champion Tulane Green Wave are still the top dogs in a conference that should be ultra competitive this season. Will Tulane be able to repeat in 2023, or will a newcomer steal the spotlight? Let’s take a look at the serious contenders for the American Athletic Conference title and my best bets.

AAC Contenders

Tulane

The defending champions should be optimistic about their chances to repeat heading into the 2023 campaign, but it won’t be easy. It all starts with quarterback Michael Pratt, who was one of the top QBs in the nation a season ago, putting up 3,488 total yards and 37 touchdowns last fall. The Green Wave have a great offensive line and Pratt should have plenty of time to get the ball out quickly and lead his offense to paydirt on a consistent basis. However, Tulane will have to replace Tyjae Spears in the backfield, along with its top 2 wide receivers from a season ago. There will certainly be a drop-off at the skill positions, but I still trust Pratt and head coach Willie Fritz has always gotten the most from his players.

On defense, the Green Wave have a solid foundation in place for new defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, but don’t expect the same level of success in the secondary and at linebacker. In total, Tulane will need to replace 5 starters from last season’s group, so there is work to be done on the defensive side of the ball. The conference schedule isn’t the easiest, with road games against Memphis and Florida Atlantic before closing the season at home with UTSA. Even with some regression looming, the Green Wave will be a formidable obstacle for any contender in this conference.

SMU

The Mustangs won the schedule lottery this season, plain and simple. Following the departure of Tanner Mordecai, SMU gets a new rising star in Preston Stone at the quarterback position, plus the Mustangs won’t have to face Tulane or UTSA until a potential conference title game. The loss of wide receiver Rashee Rice is undoubtedly a massive blow for this offense, but that shouldn’t stop SMU from tallying plenty of points throughout the season. The addition of 5 offensive linemen from the Power 5 level via the transfer portal will certainly help, as well as reinforcements at running back to help Stone succeed under center. There are plenty of questions on defense for the Mustangs, but those shouldn’t be answered until a Nov. 18 meeting with Memphis.

Memphis

Speaking of Memphis, the Tigers should be on the upswing this season after a couple years of mediocrity. The offense should be the best its been in a few seasons, especially since Memphis returns one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Seth Henigan (over 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2022). In total, over 80% of the offense returns for the Tigers, plus they’ll have the services of Old Dominion transfer Blake Watson out of the backfield. Don’t expect much from the defense, but that’s not how the Tigers have traditionally won games anyway. The nonconference schedule has some tricky games with Missouri and Boise State coming to town, but the Tigers’ conference slate is very manageable. If Memphis is able to knock off Tulane at home on October 13, a +600 AAC future would suddenly become quite valuable.

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AAC best bet: UTSA Roadrunners over 7.5 wins (-140)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

There are compelling cases to be made for a number of bets in the futures market for this conference, but my best bet will focus on the UTSA Roadrunners to win at least 8 games this season. This program has been one of the best stories in college football over the last 2 years, but head coach Jeff Traylor and company weren’t satisfied with just dominating Conference USA. This marks the first year in the American for this program and I expect the Roadrunners to pick up right where they left off in December.

Frank Harris is 23-5 as the starting quarterback over the last 2 seasons, and that’s more than enough for me to label this team as an instant contender, even factoring in the step up in class. Losing Zakhari Franklin on the outside could’ve been a potentially crushing blow, but the Roadrunners still have a pair of excellent wideouts in Joshua Cephus and De’Corian Clark. With 16 returning starters on both sides of the ball, there is plenty of experience up and down this roster. That alone should have UTSA thinking conference championship and a New Year’s Six bowl in its inaugural season in the AAC. I’m projecting the Roadrunners as favorites in 9 games this fall, and that’s not factoring in a coin-flip against Houston in Week 1. Just asking them to clear 7.5 wins is more than reasonable.

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