2-Point Conversion: Baker Mayfield Is Bucs’ Difference-Maker

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs moved one step closer to winning the NFC South championship and making the playoffs with a convincing, 30-12 win over the slumping Jaguars. Tampa Bay used a strong showing by the defense, which created four takeaways, and the Bucs’ surging offense to jump out to a 30-0 lead in the third quarter.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield connected on a pair of touchdowns with Mike Evans, while safety Antoine Winfield Jr. had an interception, a sack and a fumble recovery for the 8-7 Bucs.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Baker Mayfield Proving To Be A Difference-Maker At QB

Baker Mayfield told on himself last week in the Bucs’ 34-20 win over the Packers at Green Bay.

Mayfield proved he was capable of having multiple elite performances throughout the year, and he could become even better than the stop-gap QB many believed he was when he signed with Tampa Bay in free agency.

After a three-touchdown, one-interception game where he completed 78.1% of his passes for 246 yards in a 26-9 win at New Orleans in Week 4, Mayfield did it again at Green Bay. Not only was it a better outing against the Packers, it was literal perfection, as Mayfield became the first opposing QB to post a perfect 158.3 QB rating at Lambeau Field. He did it completing 78.6% of his passes for a season-high 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Mayfield followed that game up with a stellar, turnover-free affair against the Jaguars on Christmas Eve in a 30-12 win. He completed 26-of-35 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns – both to Mike Evans, who now has 13 on the year to lead the NFL. Evans is just one TD away from tying his single-season franchise record of 14 scores in 2021.

Mayfield has gone from journeyman quarterback when he arrived in March to a potential QB of the future in Tampa Bay throughout the course of this season. He’s gone from being more of a field general and a game manager earlier in the season to becoming a bonafide play-maker later in the year as the Bucs have won four straight games during their playoff push.

Gaining experience within Dave Canales’ new system, becoming familiar with Canales’ play-calling and getting to know his teammates and offensive counterparts over the last 15 games have all led to where Mayfield is right now.

He’s become a difference-maker in Tampa Bay. And one that might stick around per a pre-game report by NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport that suggested that Mayfield and the Bucs have a mutual interest in a contract extension.

And where is Mayfield right now? Among the league’s best quarterbacks on of the hottest teams in football – a team that is on the cusp of winning the NFC South with a victory against New Orleans at home next Sunday.

I wrote in a previous 2-Point Conversion following a 24-18 loss at Buffalo that Mayfield was not a difference-maker as a quarterback. It wasn’t a terrible game for Mayfield. In fact, he completed 58% of his passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions versus the Bills. But Tampa Bay’s offense struggled as a whole, generating just 302 yards in the game, including only 27 yards in the third quarter while falling behind, 24-10, before eventually losing.

My definition of a difference-making quarterback is one who rises to the occasion to help his team win, usually in crunch-time. Mayfield got robbed of that opportunity at the end of Tampa Bay’s 39-37 loss at Houston, where his last-minute touchdown pass to Cade Otton didn’t prove to be enough to get the win due to a late-game collapse by the defense. That loss came after losing at Buffalo, and was one of six defeats over a seven-game span, as Tampa Bay slumped to 4-7.

The Bucs finally got on a roll by following up a 21-18 win over Carolina with a season-changing, 29-25 win at Atlanta. Mayfield struggled mightily in both games, averaging 173 passing yards and completing exactly 48.3% of his passes in each game. Yet the key for him and the Bucs was a combined three touchdown passes and just one interception.

Mayfield was quite bad throughout the game against the Falcons, but saved his best for his final two passes late in the contest. The first was a 32-yard catch-and-run to Chris Godwin and then the subsequent game-winning touchdown on his next throw, an 11-yard touch pass to Otton for the game-winner.

After a terrible strip-sack near the end zone in the first quarter that led to a quick Green Bay touchdown last week, Mayfield shrugged off the turnover and proceeded to pass for four touchdowns and nearly 400 yards. In three straight wins Mayfield has proven to be what the Bucs have needed him to be – a difference-maker under center.

Mayfield out-dueled Trevor Lawrence on Sunday, and came into the game with a better TD:INT ratio, too. In fact, Mayfield’s 2023 season is up there with some of the league’s best quarterbacks. He entered the Jaguars game tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes in the league and now ranks tied for fourth with Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Denver’s Russell Wilson.

2023 NFL Top Passing Touchdown Leaders

Dallas QB Dak Prescott – 30 TDs, 7 INTs
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy – 29 TDs, 7 INTs (plays on Monday)
Buffalo QB Josh Allen – 27 TDs, 15 INTs
Detroit QB Jared Goff – 27 TDs, 10 INTs
Green Bay QB Jordan Love – 27 TDs, 11 INTs
Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield – 26 TDs, 8 INTs
Denver QB Russell Wilson – 26 TDs, 8 INTs
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa – 26 TDs, 10 INTs
Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes – 25 TDs, 13 INTs (plays on Monday)
Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford – 23 TDs, 9 INTs

Mayfield, who was a bargain in Tampa Bay, signing a one-year, prove-it deal worth $4 million, has outplayed New Orleans’ Derek Carr, who signed a five-year, $125 million deal this past offseason. Carr has thrown for 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions for the 7-8 Saints this season, but Mayfield has been the best quarterback in the division.

“He’s been outstanding,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said of Mayfield. “He’s been outstanding in December. That’s what you want from your quarterback in December. Everybody knows each other’s plays right about now, but when you’re trying to make a push and your quarterback is playing great, it gives you a chance.”

Tampa Bay has never really found success drafting a quarterback. Both Super Bowl-winning QBs were free agent additions in Brad Johnson in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2020. Re-signing Mayfield wouldn’t necessarily preclude the Bucs from drafting another quarterback, but it might not have to be in the first round. With Mayfield playing as well as he is right now, quarterback is not a need in the 2024 NFL Draft, especially with the Bucs showing interest in re-signing him after this season.

Tampa Bay’s last three first-round quarterbacks have been Trent Dilfer (1994), Josh Freeman (2009) and Jameis Winston (2015) – none of which were re-signed after their rookie deal expired. The Bucs’ last four division titles have actually come at the hands of veteran free agent additions – Johnson in 2002, Brian Griese in 2005, Jeff Garcia in 2007 and Brady in 2020.

It seems like the difference-making Mayfield will be the next name on this list for Tampa Bay.

STATEMENT 2. Todd Bowles’ Job Security Is Vastly Improving

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles looked like a dead man walking back when Tampa Bay was 4-7. But four straight wins have cooled his hot seat off quite a bit. At 8-7 with two winnable games left versus New Orleans and at Carolina, the Bucs are poised to win the NFC South division again and could finish 10-7. That would represent a two-win improvement over last year’s 8-9 record.

Should the Bucs finish with six straight wins and end the regular season with a 10-7 record, a third straight NFC South title and another home playoff game, that alone should bode well for Bowles staying on as head coach in 2024 – regardless of the outcome of the playoff game. The Bucs have only won six straight games in the regular season – back in 1999 under former head coach Tony Dungy. So that would be quite a feat.

A home playoff win should all but close the door on a possible coaching change, but losing one of the next two, plus a possible loss in the Wild Card game at home could complicate things – especially if Tampa Bay gets creamed in the playoffs like last year.

What’s working in Bowles’ favor is the fact that the offense has shown real signs of life in recent weeks. Bowles took a risk in hiring a rookie play-caller in Dave Canales, but that move is paying off big time in Tampa Bay as Canales has grown into his role and improved the offense. Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 30.3 points per game over the last three games.

On Sunday against Jacksonville, Bowles’ defense was just as dominant, pitching a shutout at halftime before Tampa Bay increased its lead to 30-0 in the third quarter. The best thing Bowles has done as a head coach is get this team to stick together and keep fighting. Bowles’ steady leadership has this team above .500 for the first time since October and he should commended for the Bucs’ four-game winning streak.

“Well, we’re piecing it together,” Bowles said. “We’re piecing it together – everybody’s playing for each other. Everybody is locked in and we’re trying to get in [to the playoffs]. We’re clawing, we’re scrapping, we’re doing everything we can. Those guys have great attitudes – the leaders have been great for us getting us through tough times, coming out on the other side, and we know it’s not over.”

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1. Is YaYa Diaby A Candidate For NFL Defensive Player of the Year?

Absolutely. YaYa Diaby, a third-round pick this year, is becoming a real force against the run and the pass. He had 1.5 sacks against the Jaguars in a real coming out party, also forcing a fumble and recovering it while taking down Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Diaby now has a team-high 6.5 sacks this season, which is tied with Rams defensive lineman Kobie Turner for the most sacks by a rookie defender this season. He has the edge with one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries this season, while Turner has yet to create a takeaway.

Diaby had five tackles on Sunday, including two tackles for loss on back-to-back plays in the run game. That gives him nine tackles for loss on the season, which is just one behind teammate Calijah Kancey. The Bucs’ rookie defensive tackle leads all rookies in tackles for loss, but Diaby is hot on his trail.

There is no clear front-runner for NFL Defensive Player of the Year this season. So why not Diaby, who is coming on strong?

QUESTION 2. What Made Devin White Play So Well vs. The Jaguars?

It was the fact that Devin White was benched last week by head coach Todd Bowles, who opted to start K.J. Britt in his place versus Green Bay. Well, technically, White benched himself as he opted out of the Packers game last week.

But White sitting out obviously helped motivate him to play well upon his return from his foot injury and his benching against Green Bay – however it happened.

White had a key, first quarter interception of Trevor Lawrence – the first of four Bucs takeaways on defense (two picks, two fumble recoveries). That was his second INT of the year. White also had four tackles, half a sack and two quarterback hits in a very good performance against Jacksonville. It’s the type of performance the Bucs have waited all season to see from White, who is in a contract year.

Britt started the game, but White subbed in for nickel packages and wound up playing the majority of the snaps next to Lavonte David, who had a team-high eight tackles, a tackle for loss and a sack against the Jaguars.

“Coach Bowles, he tried to tell everybody… You know, once he got me in a rhythm and got me going, he was going to let me go,” White said. “And that’s what he did. And I really appreciate him, you know, much more than anything because he helped me out. He helped me to be able to get back to myself by taking the game away from me and telling me to go heal up and then bringing me back on my own will when I felt right. I really appreciate him for that.”

Sometimes benching a player can actually be what’s best for the player. It’s not necessarily a punishment for poor play, but a chance to reset and get back to playing good football. That seemed to be the case with White on Sunday.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1. Bucs Beat The Saints To Win The NFC South

A win over the visiting Saints next week would allow the Bucs to win the NFC South division by virtue of a series sweep. Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is currently 3-0 against New Orleans, and the Bucs won the division last year with a Week 17 home win against the Panthers.

Riding a four-game winning streak, Tampa Bay has some real momentum heading into a game where the team can clinch the NFC South crown. New Orleans has lost four of its last six games, including a Thursday night loss at Los Angeles against the Rams. Bowles’ mojo continues to work as the Bucs turn the voodoo around on the Saints for a second consecutive series sweep.

Even if the Bucs lose to the Saints, who are a game behind Tampa Bay at 7-8, there is a chance that the Bucs can still win the division with a victory at Carolina in Week 18.

PREDICTION 2. Bucs Re-Sign Baker Mayfield In 2024

Regardless of whether the Bucs win or lose in the playoffs, Tampa Bay seems destined to re-sign quarterback Baker Mayfield. Getting Mayfield back as the team’s starting QB in 2024 accomplishes several things. First, it aids in the re-signing of wide receiver Mike Evans, who clearly has a rapport with Mayfield given the fact he’s having one of his best statistical seasons at age 30.

Second, Mayfield is well-liked by both head coach Todd Bowles and general manager Jason Licht. Continuity is king in the NFL, and another year in Dave Canales’ offense, which Mayfield is a perfect fit in, could produce even better results in 2024.

And if for some reason the Bucs falter down the stretch and there is a head coaching change, remember that Mayfield played for Todd Monken in 2019. Monken is the Ravens’ offensive coordinator, and he would have to be considered a strong candidate to replace Bowles if it came to that. In years past, Monken had some very nice things to say about Mayfield, so there’s that.

But right now, the combination of Bowles and Mayfield has Tampa Bay streaking … into the postseason – likely as NFC South champions.