Pelicans vs. Clippers NBA Picks: Big Line Move Towards Road Team

Paul George is officially out, but has the market overvalued his worth when it comes to the spread for Friday’s game? Find out with our Pelicans-Clippers picks.

The final spot in the Western Conference Playoffs will be determined tonight as the eight-seed Los Angeles Clippers will play the nine-seed New Orleans Pelicans.

To say that even qualifying for the NBA Play-In Tournament was remarkable for the Pelicans (42-40-1 against the spread, 34-49 Over/Under) would be an understatement. The franchise appears to have whiffed on Zion Williamson with the top overall pick in the draft back in 2019. Williamson has yet to play a single game for New Orleans all season and does not appear poised to do so. Nonetheless, the Pelicans rebounded from a 1-12 start to the season to win 36 games and finish ninth in the West. They took care of San Antonio in their first play-in game to advance.

As for the Clippers (40-42-1 ATS, 39-42-2 O/U), they too have dealt with numerous injury absences over the course of the season. The fact that L.A. managed to win 42 games despite being a shell of themselves for much of the year was truly remarkable. Although they lost their first play-in contest to Minnesota, the Clips will have both home court and a rest advantage tonight. Unfortunately, thanks to a stunning game day development, they will be without superstar Paul George for the game as he has entered health and safety protocols. On the bright side, the Clippers also played without him for the majority of the regular season.

Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Clippers (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Pelicans vs. Clippers Game Info

Date: Friday, April 15, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Pelicans vs. Clippers Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers initially opened the Clippers as a 4-point home favorite for Friday’s NBA Play-In Tournament battle. Up until the news that Paul George would be unavailable, the market mostly held firm at that number. With PG13 now ruled out, the consensus spread has now swung all the way to a pick’em. The Pelicans are a 1-point favorite across the majority of the NBA betting market.

The total has also seen an adjustment from the opening line, albeit a lesser one. An initially listed total of 217 had been knocked down to 216 across the NBA betting market prior to the Paul George news. Now, the total sits at 215.5 across most major sportsbooks. Some have already lowered it one notch further to an even 215.

Pelicans vs. Clippers Picks

• Clippers +1 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★
• Under 215.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★
• Brandon Ingram Under 24.5 points (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★★

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Pelicans vs. Clippers Predictions

Clippers +1 (-110)

While no Paul George is certainly a blow to L.A., the silver lining here is that the Clippers played 51 games without George in the regular season due to injury. If there is any team that can still rise to the occasion in this scenario, one has to believe it would be the Clips.

As for the Pelicans, no one can deny that the way in which they were able to turn their season around was impressive. The trade deadline acquisition of a veteran star in guard C.J. McCollum paid massive dividends in the latter portion of the season. Both he and Brandon Ingram have been tremendous in leading New Orleans to the NBA Play-In Tournament.

Although the Clippers beat the Pelicans by 19 back on April 3, George was very average. Should bettors rush to trust Marcus Morris Sr. to carry the load offensively as he did in that previous encounter when he scored 22? Probably not. What they can trust, however, is that L.A. coach Tyronn Lue will have a lethal defensive game plan ready to deploy. 

The Clippers were one of the NBA’s best defensive teams all season long. On the full season, they allowed 109.4 points per 100 possessions, the eighth fewest in the league. Considering the various injury absences the Clips dealt with, that efficiency rating over the full year becomes even more impressive. The injuries also suggest that L.A. can maintain that level of defensive play in tonight’s game.

Along with Morris, point guard Reggie Jackson will become a key cog offensively for the Clippers. With George out, the availability of Luke Kennard (currently questionable) becomes even more important. At the end of the day, it’s tough to argue that George is worth five whole points to this point spread. Thus, the best value is to ride with the Clips as a home underdog.

SEE ALSO: Clippers’ Paul George Ruled Out for Friday’s NBA Play-In Game, Oddsmakers Adjust

Under 215.5 (-110)

The same focal point that was discussed for why the Clippers will win this game also applies when handicapping the total for this contest. Although there is an argument to be made that the return of George made the Clippers more capable offensively down the stretch of the regular season, the defense remained the key ingredient for this team. 

The other key element to consider here is the pace at which both sides play. The Clippers complemented their stingy defense with a below-average ranking in Pace Factor. On the season, L.A. used an average of 98.51 possessions per game. Contrary to public opinion, the Pelicans actually played even slower than that. NOLA’s Pace Factor on the year finished at 98.02, 21st in the NBA.

While the Pels are known for being in higher-scoring affairs, a sub-par defense was the main reason for this. Not only did that defense improve somewhat down the stretch, but the Clippers do not pose nearly the same offensive threat as some teams in the league. Remove George from the equation and that sentiment echoes even louder.

Finally, one could argue that the greatest personnel advantage that the Pelicans have in this matchup comes on the interior. Center Jonas Valanciunas dominated the Clippers on the glass across numerous regular-season meetings, going over double digits in rebounds in three of the four games. If New Orleans wisely elects to play through their big man down low, this could also inhibit the overall tempo of tonight’s game.

Ingram Under 24.5 points (-112)

The reason to bet that Ingram will score less than 24.5 points tonight is more a reflection on the line being off than anything.

Ingram was notably impressive in the Pelicans’ first play-in game on Wednesday. He scored 27 points to help power New Orleans to the win. The San Antonio team that Ingram achieved that output against is a far cry from the Clippers outfit that he and the Pelicans will face Friday, particularly when it comes to defensive capabilities.

The other key difference in opposition to note concerns pace. The Spurs were actually one of the six fastest teams in the NBA this season. The same cannot be said for the typical pace of the Clippers. 

On the full season, Ingram averaged 22.7 points per game. While this is a solid scoring average, it also falls nearly two full points below tonight’s prop total. Thus, Ingram would need to exceed his typical production by over two points to achieve the bare minimum needed to go Over. Playing on the road against a savvy L.A. defense, that kind of performance figures to be much easier said than done.

Where to Bet on Pelicans-Clippers Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Pelicans-Clippers picks made 4/15/2022 at 1:55 p.m. ET.

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