MLB Best Bets for Monday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Nine of Monday’s 12 MLB games are series openers, as just three games are wrap-ups from the opening weekend. Here is our look at the odds, movement, and best MLB bets for Monday’s action.

Just one undefeated team remains after the opening weekend (Tampa Bay Rays), while neither of last year’s NLCS competitors (Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers) are over .500. However, optimists would argue that there was good money to be made on several underdogs since Opening Day, as three of the four teams that lost 100+ games last season notched at least one win.

Starting pitching depth will be tested early this week, as all teams use their fourth or fifth starters today. How will that affect the games’ outcomes?

Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, FOX Bet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB Schedule and Odds

(Odds via Draftkings)

• Cleveland Guardians (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals (-115)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+160) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-190)
• Milwaukee Brewers (-155) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+135)
• Colorado Rockies (+115) vs. Texas Rangers (-135)
• Boston Red Sox (-125) vs. Detroit Tigers (+105)
• Oakland Athletics (+175) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-210)
• New York Mets (+130) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-150)
• Toronto Blue Jays (-110) vs. New York Yankees (-110)
• Washington Nationals (OFF) vs. Atlanta Braves
• Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-130)
• Miami Marlins (+125) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-145)
• San Diego Padres (+125) vs. San Francisco Giants (-145)

SEE ALSO: MLB Cy Young Odds and Picks

Monday’s MLB Best Bets

• Moneyline: Twins (-125 via BetMGM) ★★★★
• Spread: Rays -1.5 (+106 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Total: Blue Jays-Yankees Over 9 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★
• Upset: Tigers (+105 via FOX Bet) ★★★
• Prop bet: Mets-Phillies Under 5 F5 Innings (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★
• Parlay: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits (-280) + Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 hits (-275) + Hunter Renfroe Over 0.5 hits (-210) = +160 ★★

SEE ALSO: MLB MVP Odds and Picks

Monday’s MLB Top Picks

Moneyline: Twins (-125)

We are backing the Minnesota Twins to beat the Seattle Mariners for the second consecutive day.

Seattle starting pitcher Chris Flexen was 7-5 at home compared to 7-1 on the road last year, but his records do not tell the whole story. Flexen’s ERA was 0.83 runs higher on the road, and he allowed five more home runs in 15.2 fewer innings pitched. In addition, his 1.342 WHIP in his 14 road starts was well below league average, and Flexen’s road record would have been a lot more mediocre if he did not often receive generous run support. Flexen’s propensity to give up the long ball is dangerous when facing a Minnesota offense that belted six home runs (by five different players) yesterday.

BetMGM is offering the best moneyline odds for Twins backers, while most other sportsbooks are at least at -130.

Spread: Rays -1.5 (+106)

Despite Oakland’s series finale victory over Philadelphia, the A’s look like a team destined to struggle all year long. Nevertheless, the A’s benefitted from a weak Phillies bullpen to push across four runs late after being held scoreless on two hits over four innings by starter Zach Eflin.

Unfortunately for Oakland, Tampa Bay’s bullpen is a strength of their team, not a liability like Philadelphia’s is. In addition, the A’s had difficulty with right-handed pitching. Entering Sunday, Oakland had six players in their lineup with a strikeout percentage of 25% or more against righties last year. Thus, we like for Rays starter Luis Patino to generate a lot of swings and misses and for the Rays to keep Oakland’s scoring down en route to a runline cover.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering plus money on Tampa Bay’s runline.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Total: Blue Jays-Yankees Over 9 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays have seen 18 runs scored in two of their first three games this year and bring their deep lineup to the Bronx for the first of 19 meetings with the Yankees.

New York is coming off a taxing series against Boston, which saw their bullpen used for 18.2 innings over the first three games, as no Yankees starter lasted longer than four innings. That is a recipe for disaster when facing the high-powered Blue Jays offense, and we do not expect Jameson Taillon to be an innings-eater in his season debut.

Upset: Tigers (+105)

A storied rivalry like the Yankees and Red Sox will often play its series finales on Sunday Night Baseball to broadcast their games nationally. While that is good for the fans, it hurts the team that has to travel the next day. In this case, that’s the Red Sox.

Detroit does not have to leave the comfort of its city after playing host to the White Sox, while Boston flew into Detroit early this morning after its game against the Yankees ended late. That is the primary reason we like the Tigers to pull the upset in this series opener.

Prop bet: Mets-Phillies Under 5 F5 Innings (-110)

New York Mets starter Taijuan Walker was a beast in the first half of last season, pitching to a 2.66 ERA and allowing a slugging percentage of .298, the lowest of any first half of a season in his career. He is opposed by Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez, the converted reliever who shocked many with a 1.36 ERA in 39 appearances (12 starts) last year.

New York’s offense was limited to seven runs over the final two games of the Washington series, though four of them came on one swing of the bat, a Pete Alonso grand slam. We expect both Walker and Suarez to pitch well, but neither to go deep in the game, making the first five innings Under the best play.

Parlay: Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits (-280) + Benintendi Over 0.5 hits (-275) + Renfroe Over 0.5 hits (-245) = +160

Yesterday we cashed a +207 player-prop parlay with three hitters who all had success against the opposing pitcher and all needed to get at least one hit.

We go back to that well today with Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3-for-7 with one home run against Jameson Taillon), Kansas City Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi (2-for-4 with one home run against Aaron Civale), and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Hunter Renfroe (2-for-5 with one home run against Bruce Zimmerman).

Where to Bet on MLB Best Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

MLB odds and best bets from 4/11/2022 at 6:56 a.m. ET

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