Amid the threat of the Saudi Golf League poaching some of the PGA Tour’s biggest names, our golf betting experts offer up their picks for the 2022 Masters in an attempt to get some early value.
While the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods, and Brooks Koepka have pledged their allegiance to the PGA Tour, the upstart Saudi Golf League is still eyeing Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Adam Scott, among others. By betting on the 2022 Masters early, golf fans can guarantee themselves some value if any of those top names end up pulling out.
Also hanging in the balance of the lookahead odds is the availability of Tiger Woods. He didn’t participate last year following a car accident, though he did return to play with his son, Charlie, at the PNC Championship in the fall.
With that in mind, Esten McLaren and Jon Metler shop the top U.S. sportsbooks for their early 2022 Masters picks.
2022 Masters Info
When: Thursday, April 7 – Sunday, April 10
Where: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, GA
How to watch: ESPN, CBS, Masters.com
2022 Masters Odds
Augusta National Course Profile
The 86th running of the Masters will be played on the longest version of Augusta National seen to date. The par-72 venue was extended to 7,510 yards, with additions made to the par-4 11th and par-5 15th.
That added difficulty only compounds matters for the best golfers in the world. The tight tree lines, severe elevation changes in the fairways, and undulating greens will pose their usual tests. Just four holes played below par last year as Hideki Matsuyama claimed the green jacket at 10-under par.
The only six eagles carded last year were all on par 5s, with the 570-yard eighth coughing up three of them. The most difficult hole on the course was already the 505-yard, par-4 11th, which has now been lengthened.
Masters Key Stats
- Strokes gained: off-the-tee
- SG: approach
- Percentage of yardage covered by tee shots - Par 5’s
- SG: around-the-green
- 3-putt avoidance
- Experience
Marc Leishman was the only player in the top 5 from last year's Masters to not gain strokes off the tee. As a matter of fact, four of the top six players averaged better than 0.79 SG: off-the-tee per round.
With the exception of one player each of the 11 golfers to finish T-10 or better gained strokes on their approach last year. The lackluster iron play came from a player you would least expect, now-world No. 1 Jon Rahm. He lost 0.20 strokes per round on approach and still finished T-5.
How did Matsuyama secure his first Masters victory? It was achieved by excelling in SG: approach and SG: around-the-reen. In addition to ranking fifth or better in each of those statistics, he also gained strokes in all other major categories, including 3.25 SG: tee-to-green per round to rank second in the field behind Jordan Spieth.
Experience Reigns
When it comes to playing at Augusta National Golf Club, experience is very important. No one has won in their first Masters appearance since Fuzzy Zoeller did so in 1979. In his rookie season last year, Will Zalatoris turned in one of the best performances in recent memory, as he finished as the runner-up, just one stroke behind Matsuyama. Lefty-swinging Scotsman Robert MacIntyre also impressed with a T-12 finish in his 2021 debut.
Zalatoris and MacIntrye were around +15000 and +30000, respectively, prior to the start of Round 1. Matsuyama was +6000 while defending champion Dustin Johnson was the pre-tournament favorite at +800.
Spieth, the 2015 Masters champ, leads all golfers with at least two visits to Augusta National with an average of 2.94 total strokes gained on the field per round.
2022 Masters Picks: Favorites
Viktor Hovland (+2200 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Hovland is No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) but he has just the 11th-best odds to win the Masters at most major sportsbooks. The 24-year-old Norwegian has two visits to Augusta National under his belt, with a T-32 finish as an amateur in 2019 and a T-21 last year. He has five career victories to his name, including three on the PGA Tour, in addition to claiming the 2021 Hero World Challenge.
Hovland struggled with his approach game last year, but that's typically a strength, as he's averaging 0.84 SG: approach per round this season. He was third in last year's field with 1.28 SG: off-the-tee per round, and his short game actually stood up better than usual on the difficult terrain in Augusta.
The youngster should be expected to keep playing often in the lead up to early April. Another win against any of the strong fields we'll see will propel him further up the OWGR and drop his odds for the Masters. - McLaren
Patrick Cantlay (+2000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Masters futures bought this early are all about price-shopping and grabbing players whose prices will be shorter in April. For me, there is no doubt that Cantlay will be shorter than +2000 the week of the Masters.
I will frame it to you in this way: the Masters Tournament will have the top players in the world. At the Genesis Invitational this week, we will see each of the top 10 players in the OWGR competing in California. Why is Cantlay +1200 this week and +2000 on a course he is better suited for in Augusta?
.@patrick_cantlay has been on
. pic.twitter.com/agRNDYJW5D
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 16, 2022
.
SG: off-the-tee is the most meaningful stat to me when searching for players to play in the Masters and Cantlay currently ranks among the top five on the PGA Tour in this category.
The +2000 from FanDuel Sportsbook is the best number available on Cantlay, and some sportsbooks (such as DraftKings) already have him as short as +1600. - Metler
2022 Masters Picks: Contenders
Will Zalatoris (+3700 via FanDuel)
This number is far too high for last year's runner-up and PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. Over the next few months, I'll be backing anyone I'm betting in a weekly event to also win the Masters, and I have Zalatoris winning The Genesis Invitational.
No. 29 in the OWGR, Zalatoris racked up four top-10 finishes in 2021, in addition to his runner-up at Augusta National. He has begun the 2022 calendar with a T-6 at The American Express and a playoff loss to Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open. He leads all qualified golfers with 1.21 SG: approach per round this season, and that's complemented by 2.09 SG: tee-to-green and 0.64 SG: off-the-tee per round. He's fourth on Tour in par 4 efficiency: 450-500.
I fully expect him to break through with his first PGA Tour win before April. We're wise to back him at a higher number while we can. - McLaren
Cameron Smith (+2700 via FanDuel)
At +2700, Smith is priced as if he is the 13th-best golfer in the Masters field, which is grossly inaccurate. On any golf course, he is easily one of the top-10 golfers in the world. With his current form, he is a top-five player coming into Augusta National.
Smith has not yet established himself as a household name, which is reflected in his price. The reason why I like his price point is that he should have odds of +1600 to win the Masters. I am therefore purchasing the +2700 before the narrative unfolds and I am stuck with a much lower outright price the week of the Masters.
34-UNDER
Lowest score in PGA TOUR history.
Cameron Smith wins the @Sentry_TOC, his fourth win on TOUR. pic.twitter.com/wEYol5QCwE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 10, 2022
Smith has a strong track record at Augusta National, averaging 1.71 strokes gained across his 20 rounds played. He has finished T-5, T-51, T-2, and T-10 in his last four appearances at the Masters.
The best price for Smith can be found at FanDuel, where he is +2700. The majority of sportsbooks, including DraftKings and PointsBet, have him listed at +2500. - Metler
2022 Masters Picks: Mid-Range Targets
Abraham Ancer (+8000 via PointsBet)
I'm quite certain these odds will be the highest we see for Ancer, who reached a career-high No. 11 in the OWGR after winning the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational last August. He briefly slipped back to No. 20 and enters the week of The Genesis Invitational at No. 18 following a T-43 finish in the WM Phoenix Open.
Ancer has twice participated in the Masters, with a T-13 result in 2020 and a T-26 in 2021 for an average of 1.77 total strokes gained on the field per round. His short game and iron play have struggled mightily this season, but he's still averaging 0.56 SG: off-the-tee per round. With that as our key stat this week, we'll focus there while trusting the other two areas to eventually come around.
He's tied for 37th in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards and an adequate T-74 in 3-putt avoidance for the 2021-22 season. He gained strokes on the greens of Augusta National last April, and he proved he can beat the world's best with his win in the WGC event. - McLaren
Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600 via PointsBet)
Due to his lack of distance off-the-tee, Fitzpatrick is not a player I normally back at Augusta National. He averages only 287.2 yards in driving distance, which places him 194th on the PGA Tour. Driving distance is something I covet when looking for Masters bets, but I cannot get over the price of +6600 via PointsBet.
Fitzpatrick has gained strokes in every category this season, and his iron play has improved immensely. He averaged 0.01 SG: approach for the 2020-21 season. For 2021-22, his SG: approach average is 1.12.
During the week of the Masters, I expect his odds to be much shorter than the +6600 you can find at PointsBet. In fact, Barstool Sportsbook agrees with me because they have him listed at +4000. I believe he will be even shorter than the +4000 that is currently available at Barstool in April. I am really high on Matt Fitzpatrick this season, and I am all over the +6600 odds at PointsBet. - Metler
2022 Masters Picks: Longshots
Francesco Molinari (+12500 via BetMGM)
These odds are a gift for Molinari, as he's as low as +8000 at Caesars. He has averaged 0.45 total strokes gained per round across 34 career rounds at Augusta National, including a T-5 finish in 2019. He missed the cut the following fall but rebounded for a 52nd-place finish last April.
More importantly, I'm impressed by Molinari's form early in 2022. After playing a light schedule in 2020 and 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, he started his 2022 calendar with a T-6 finish at The American Express. While that was followed by finishes of T-62 and T-43 and the Farmers Insurance Open and WM Phoenix Open, respectively, they're quality starts heading into a Florida swing where he typically plays some of his best golf.
His most recent PGA Tour victory was at the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational. A strong showing there in early March — against an elite field — and his odds to win the Masters will plummet. - McLaren
Luke List (+15000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
List is not necessarily a player I expect to see his odds shorten between now and the start of the Masters in April. Based on his price point and current level of play, he is my favorite bomber play on the board.
List is already a winner on the PGA Tour this season, having won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. I was drawn to List because of his dominance in some of the statistics I value when betting the Masters at Augusta National. His SG: off-the-tee and SG: approach metrics are very strong and he is currently fifth on the PGA Tour with an average driving distance of 319.0 yards.
Keep an eye on List's price in the coming weeks. There might be a better number than the +15000 available at DraftKings. At the moment, List's odds are only available at DraftKings and Caesars, so it is possible that other sportsbooks will offer him at higher odds. - Metler
Where to Bet on 2022 Masters Futures
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Picks made on 2/17/2022.
The post Masters Picks: Early Value Bets Amid Threat of Saudi Golf League appeared first on Picks.
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