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March Madness Top Picks, Odds and Printable Bracket: Favorites, Values, and Longshots for the NCAA Tournament

March 18, 2022
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The bracket is officially set for the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament. This page looks at the odds and discusses the favorites, contenders, and longshots for March Madness, along with our top NCAA Tournament picks.

Let’s dance.

The 2021-22 March Madness tournament will begin on Tuesday with the First Four. Indiana and Wyoming, and Texas A&M Corpus-Christi and Texas Southern get things started in Tuesday’s action. Wednesday’s schedule features Rutgers and Notre Dame, and Wright State and Bryant. Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament then gets underway on Thursday.

Below, we track the NCAA Tournament odds with our top college basketball futures picks and all the details for March Madness.

SEE ALSO: 2022 March Madness Field Set

2021-22 March Madness Odds

(Odds as of March 14)

DOWNLOAD OUR PRINTABLE MARCH MADNESS BRACKET

March Madness Picks

NCAA Tournament Predictions

  • Kentucky to win National Championship (+850 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Bennedict Mathurin to win Most Outstanding Player (+1300 via FanDuel)
  • Iowa to make the Final Four (+390 via FanDuel)
  • Arkansas to make the Final Four (+1400 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Arkansas to win NCAA Tournament (+8000 via DraftKings)

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

March Madness Favorite Picks

Gonzaga Bulldogs (+350 via Caesars)

Gonzaga is the top-ranked team on KenPom and in the NET rankings. Head coach Mark Few's team fell one win short of winning it all last year when losing to Baylor in the National Championship game. Forward Drew Timme and center Chet Holmgren provide the Bulldogs with an interior presence that should help them avoid an early upset during March Madness.

In addition to earning the top overall seed on Selection Sunday, Gonzaga is the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament at +350. Gonzaga's odds shortened once the brackets were released and I do not believe this was an appropriate move. Memphis, a potential opponent in the second round, has been playing much better basketball of late. A potential Sweet 16 matchup against either UConn or Arkansas could also prove difficult for Gonzaga. The road to the Final 4 will not be an easy one for the Bulldogs. Gonzaga is an elite team; however, I believe the price point of +350 is too short.

Key Wins: Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech

Kentucky Wildcats (+850 via FanDuel)

Although this is not head coach John Calipari's most talented team at Kentucky, it is his most cohesive. According to KenPom, the Wildcats are ranked third in the nation. Kentucky opened the season with odds of +1600 at BetMGM. During the course of the season, the Wildcats reached odds as high as +2200 but enter March Madness at +850 to win the National Championship. As a result, they represent one of BetMGM's biggest liabilities.

Among all the favorites in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, Kentucky is the one in which I would consider investing. We are getting +850 on a team of this caliber only because the Wildcats didn't win the SEC tournament or regular-season championship. This team has impressed me throughout the season, and I love Kentucky's path to the Final Four. The fact that Purdue is the No. 3 seed in the East Region does not deter me from backing the Wildcats. In fact, it is quite the opposite.

Key Wins: Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama

Arizona Wildcats (+650 via DraftKings)

Tommy Lloyd, a first-year head coach, has made an immediate impact with Arizona. Under the guidance of the long-time Gonzaga assistant, Arizona has been ranked as the second-most efficient team in college basketball by KenPom. The Wildcats are led by Canadian guard Bennedict Mathurin.

The odds for Arizona to win the National Championship began the season at +5000 at BetMGM. The Wildcats were as high as +7000 at other sportsbooks. Due to the opening odds, Arizona represents the largest liability for many sportsbooks.

The Pac-12 regular season and tournament champion will be a popular pick for the National Championship. Arizona's Sweet 16 matchup has the potential to be a repeat of a game it won in Illinois earlier in the season. Its bracket is filled with champions from some of the top conferences, including Villanova, Tennessee, Illinois, and Houston.

As an alternative to buying the Wildcats at +650 to win the National Championship, I would purchase Mathurin at +1300 to win Most Outstanding Player. Mathurin's price represents a much better value in the event Arizona wins the National Championship.

Key Wins: Illinois, UCLA

Kansas Jayhawks (+1300 via FanDuel)

After the brackets were announced, nobody saw a larger change in their futures odds than the Kansas Jayhawks. Prior to the brackets being released, Kansas was trading at around +1600 and is now as short as +700 on PointsBet.

The movement in the Jayhawks' odds was directly related to how the public perceived their bracket. There are few top teams in the Midwest Region, especially with Providence occupying the No. 4 seed. Although the Midwest presents the Jayhawks with an easy path to the Final Four, I do not believe they have the roster to win two games in New Orleans if they make it there.

In terms of Kansas' futures numbers, FanDuel offers the highest price at +1300. Most sportsbooks offer these odds at around +850.

Key Wins: Texas Tech, Baylor

Duke Blue Devils (+1700 via FanDuel)

This will be Coach K's last March Madness before Jon Scheyer takes over head coaching duties. Duke has a number of star players, most notably freshmen forward Paolo Banchero.

In the wake of their loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament, the Blue Devils' odds of winning the NCAA Tournament increased. The odds of Duke winning the national championship were +1200 before the ACC tournament began.

Duke is in a tough bracket with many programs that play very efficiently on the defensive end. In terms of longshots, I am backing Arkansas. Since Arkansas has been inserted into Duke's bracket, I am fading Duke. The Blue Devils boast numerous NBA prospects, but their inefficiency on defense has me passing at a price of +1700.

Key Wins: Gonzaga, Kentucky

Baylor Bears (+1200 via DraftKings)

Do not be misled by a Baylor team that dealt with injuries all season. This team is capable of winning again. The top scorers for head coach Scott Drew's team are guards Adam Flagler and James Akinjo.

The fact that the Bears were bounced early from the Big 12 tournament made no difference to the selection committee. They were still given the No. 1 seed in the East Region as a reward for winning the Big 12 regular-season championship.

In the last few weeks, Baylor's odds have remained stable. They were priced at +1200 before the Big 12 tournament began, and they are still at +1200 after the brackets were released.

Key Wins: Villanova, Kansas, Texas

March Madness Value Pick

Iowa Hawkeyes (+2500, via FanDuel)

We have seen this before, where a team gets hot, wins its conference tournament, and the momentum carries with it to the NCAA Tournament. Iowa reminds me a lot of the Kemba Walker-led UConn Huskies team of 2011 that cut down the nets.

As with the 2011 Huskies, the Iowa Hawkeyes are led by an NBA lottery pick. Forward Keegan Murray is one of the most efficient players in college basketball and one of the top scorers. Murray also demonstrated what he can do during big games, averaging 25.75 points per game in the Big Ten tournament.

Due to their +2500 price point and the bracket in which they were placed, the Hawkeyes represent one of the best value plays. There is not much of a gap between Iowa and other top seeds in the Midwest Region, such as Kansas and Auburn. One could argue that Iowa is currently the best team in the Midwest Region.

I prefer Iowa's Final Four odds over its National Championship odds when I am purchasing futures. Despite my belief that the Hawkeyes are the best team in the Midwest Region, I am less confident that they will be able to win two games in New Orleans.

Key Wins: Purdue

March Madness Longshot Pick

Arkansas Razorbacks (+8000 via DraftKings)

My attention is immediately drawn to the SEC when looking for longshots. Arkansas dominated the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. Defense wins in March and the Razorbacks rank 16th in college basketball in defensive efficiency. Guard JD Notae makes tough shots and Eric Musselman has proven he is capable of coaching teams to deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

The Razorbacks won 15 of their last 18 games, including a victory over then-No. 1 ranked Auburn and No. 6 Kentucky. In spite of their impressive win streak, their odds were never shortened and they have been largely forgotten about by the sportsbooks.

The Razorbacks are currently the best value of any longshot on the board. Since Arkansas may face Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, its odds have been adjusted from +5000 to +8000. Despite this potential matchup, I would not fade the Razorbacks. I see this as an opportunity to purchase an extremely inflated number on a really talented basketball team. They can beat Gonzaga and Notae is the same type of player who caused problems for Gonzaga when it played Baylor in the National Championship last season.

Key Wins: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky

SEE ALSO: March Madness Longshot Picks

March Madness Betting Strategies

Matchups and where you are placed in the bracket are an essential part of March Madness. As a result, the futures numbers have been adjusted following Selection Sunday. Due to their potential opponents, odds on Villanova and Kansas were immediately made shorter, while Duke and Purdue had their odds grow longer.

When you are backing one of the top teams, you should avoid those with a style that makes them susceptible to upsets. In the past, top teams that had size and an interior presence did not suffer upsets over the first weekend. They are able to convert their advantage on the inside into easy points and take care of business against inferior opponents. An elite team built around 3-point shooting is susceptible to an upset. Your tournament could be over with one bad night from behind the 3-point line.

Using the KenPom rankings to predict March Madness success

When deciding who to bet on to win the National Championship, there is also the KenPom trend to consider. Among the last 19 champions, 18 finished with offensive and defensive efficiency inside the top 20. The only team to break this trend was the 2014 UConn Huskies.

The following teams fit this trend this season:

  • Gonzaga
  • Arizona
  • Baylor
  • Houston
  • UCLA

NCAA Tournament History

When/Where is the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament?

Where to Bet on March Madness

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SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

The post March Madness Top Picks, Odds and Printable Bracket: Favorites, Values, and Longshots for the NCAA Tournament appeared first on Picks.

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