College basketball parlay at mega (+611) odds, today 11/11: Target the total in the Armed Forces Classic

College basketball is here! The 2022-23 season got underway earlier this week and the schedule heats up on Friday. Among the typical college hoops powers in action are Gonzaga, Michigan State, Villanova and Kentucky, plus many others. It’s the first major slate of the season, headlined by a game between the Zags and Spartans.

It’s time to tip off the first weekend of the season with a 3-team mega parlay. Let’s get into it.

Gonzaga vs Michigan State under 148.5 (-110)

UAB -4 (-110)

Kansas State vs California under 133.5 (-110)

Parlay odds: +611

For this parlay we are going with one favorite against the spread, and two games to go under the total. Here is a breakdown of each leg.

Gonzaga vs Michigan State under 148.5 (-110)

For the first time in nearly a decade, there will be a college basketball game played on an aircraft carrier. The previous iterations of the Armed Forces Classic have been an under bettors dream, including the most recent iteration, which featured a low-scoring slugfest between San Diego State and Syracuse. This total has come crashing down since it opened at nearly 155, and it’s easy to see why.  While Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and push the pace, the same can’t be said for Michigan State, as Tom Izzo’s bunch has been outside the top 200 in pace over the last 5 years. Winds are also projected to be a factor, which could alter shots from long distance, further supporting an under position. With Michigan State looking to avoid a track meet, I like this under down to 147.

Read our full Gonzaga vs Michigan State predictions

UAB -4 (-110) over Toledo

This is one of the premier mid-major matchups of the young season, and it features a pair of teams that will be looking to do damage come March. Jordan “Jelly” Walker and Eric Gaines are must-watch players and they’ll be looking to lead UAB to a victory against a strong Toledo offense. The Rockets opened the season with an 85-point outburst in a victory over Valparaiso, but this Blazers backcourt is undeniably one of the best that Toledo will face all season. The Rockets have always been able to put up points, but their defensive numbers have typically been poor by comparison under coach Tod Kowalczyk. When push comes to shove, I’d much rather back the talented guards that UAB will have handling the ball down the stretch. Give me the Blazers in what should be a very fun game.

We’ll have college basketball picks and predictions all season long!

Kansas State vs California under 133.5 (-110)

This is an intriguing matchup, as both offenses should struggle to score efficiently on the opposing defense. In 2021, California ranked 84th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric and that’s likely that the strength of the team will be on the defensive end again this season. The Golden Bears offense struggled, ranking just 222nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kansas State put up 93 points in its season opener, which on the surface may make it seem like the Wildcats’ offense could be strong this year. However, the tempo and pace of their opponent seemed like that had more to do with the game finishing with 80 possessions.

Speaking of possession count, we know that California is going to play slowly under coach Mark Fox. In fact, the Bears have ranked outside the top-300 in tempo in each of Fox’s 4 seasons as head coach. This obviously is conducive to an under in this contest.

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