Chiefs vs. Broncos Week 18 Picks: Can Kansas City Cover the Spread at Mile High?

The very first Saturday Week 18 matchup in NFL history pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos. We break down all the betting angles with our Chiefs-Broncos picks.

The 11-5 Chiefs actually have something to play for in the final week of the NFL season. With their loss last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, they fell out of the top seed in the AFC and were overtaken by the Tennessee Titans who have the tiebreaker. The Titans play the Houston Texans on Sunday, so while it’s a long shot the Chiefs can take the top spot they will likely play most of their starters just in case Tennessee slips up.

For the Broncos, 2021 will mark a fifth straight season with a sub-.500 record. With little motivation heading into the finale, the only thing they can look forward to is possibly playing spoiler. The last time these teams played the Chiefs won 22-9 in Week 13.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL’s Week 18 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Broncos Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 8, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Weather: 41 degrees, mix of sun and clouds

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened up as 10-point favorites, with the line creeping up to 11.5. This is due to the fact the Chiefs still have a (somewhat small) chance of getting the AFC's top seed. They'd also earn the only bye week. Eighty-four percent of the handle and 79% of the bets are on the Chiefs to cover the spread. The spread is still 10.5 at some books, and some are still offering the key number of 10.

The total has seen movement but not to the same extent as the spread. Since opening at 44.5 points, it has ticked up slightly to 45 points. Sixty-five percent of the public is on the Over, but 80% of the handle is on the Under. The initial 44.5 matched the total in Week 16 against the Pittsburgh Steelers as the lowest in a Chiefs game this season. That's mostly due to the Broncos, who average just 19.4 points per game on the season.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks

Chiefs -10 (-110) ★★★★
Under 45 (-110) ★★

SEE ALSO: NFL Week 18 Parlay Picks

Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions

Chiefs -10 (-110 via BetMGM)

Motivation is always a big thing to consider for the final week of the regular season, and the Chiefs have plenty of it. Playing the day before the Titans, they have to win to have a shot at the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs should have a full complement of weapons at their disposal, outside of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder).

Since going 2-7 against the spread to start the season, Kansas City covered in six straight games before losing to the Bengals. In that game, they were gashed for 415 yards in the air, 266 of which was from rookie receiver Ja'Marr Chase.

That won't be a problem against the Broncos. They average the 19th most passing yards per game, but most of those games were with Teddy Bridgewater starting at quarterback. He was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday while still in the concussion protocol.

Projected starter Drew Lock has thrown for 398 yards in his two starts this season, but the Broncos failed to get over 13 points in each of those games. He also didn't look good in mop-up duty against the Bengals in Week 15 or the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12. Lock's QBR of 13.6 for the season doesn't put him in the top 32 quarterbacks, and it's below the likes of Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold.

In their last game, Bridgewater actually recorded more passing yards than Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. However, he threw only one touchdown and the Broncos were able to get into the Chiefs' red zone just twice. Bridgewater threw an interception that led to a pick-six.

Kansas City's bend but don't break defense has been a big part of its turnaround. That should help the Chiefs cover the spread against an anemic Broncos offense.

Under 45 (-110 via DraftKings)

These two teams combined for 31 points in their last matchup. After a brief offensive explosion against the Detroit Lions the following week, Denver scored 13 or fewer points in its last three games.

The Chiefs scored 31 or more points in four straight games, but those were all against defenses ranked outside of the top 10. Despite all their warts on offense and questions at QB, the Broncos defense is ranked ninth in the league by total yardage and seventh against the pass. They're also a league-best 12-4 to the Under in 2021.

I foresee a similar score to the last head-to-head matchup. The Broncos pass defense will play a lot of Cover 2 High and be able to somewhat contain the Chiefs, but they just don't have the offensive upside to make this go Over the total. You may want to wait until closer to kickoff to bet this; however, as the public perception of the Chiefs and their offense could help tick this total up in the coming days.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Chiefs-Broncos picks made on 1/6/2021 at 4:32 p.m. ET

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