The Milwaukee Bucks start their playoff series against the Chicago Bulls. Can the defending champions repeat their success from last season? Let’s dive into this matchup with our Bulls-Bucks picks.
Few playoff series between a No. 3 and a No. 6 seed seem over before the first tipoff, but that’s the case here.
The Chicago Bulls have been fading down the stretch with DeMar DeRozan cooling off, and Lonzo Ball’s absence is hurting their defense. As a result, most analysts have already penciled the Bucks into the East semifinals.
A consensus narrative would usually create opportunities for contrarian betting angles, but not with this series. The Bulls have played the Bucks three times since the All-Star Break, and they neither won nor covered in any of those games. As much as it pains me to side with the public, that feels like the only move.
Here are my Bulls-Bucks picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bulls vs. Bucks Game Info
Date/Time: Sunday, Apr. 17 at 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Bulls vs. Bucks Odds Analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks opened as only 9.5-point favorites, but their advantage has ticked up to 10.5 across the market. That’s because the Bucks are drawing 64% of the tickets and 83% of the cash.
The total hasn’t moved much. It opened at 229, but you can find it at 228.5, 229, or 229.5 depending on the book. No clear consensus emerges from the betting trends, either. Only 64% of the cash is on the Over.
Bulls vs. Bucks Picks
- Bucks -10.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★
- Under 229.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
- Bucks wire to wire (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★★
SEE ALSO: NBA Best Bets for Sunday
Bulls vs. Bucks Predictions
Bucks -10.5 (-110)
I rarely target a double-digit favorite. It’s even rarer for me to call a double-digit spread a four-star play. But the Bulls have been so awful lately that I can’t responsibly hope for a backdoor cover.
The Bulls have gone 7-16 against the spread since the All-Star break. That includes an 0-3 ATS streak against the Bucks that featured six-, 28-, and 21-point losses. Chicago wasted a 40-point performance from DeRozan during its most recent loss to Milwaukee. Only Patrick Williams and Coby White also scored in double-figures during that game. Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Alex Caruso combined for 16 points over 72 minutes.
The Bulls aren’t the same team without Ball. They're 4.5 points more efficient with Ball on the floor. The club is also 8.8 points less efficient with Dosunmu and 1.2 points less efficient with White. The three-man combination of Ball, DeRozan, and Vucevic is a net +5.5 in 2021-22. Replacing Ball with Dosunmu leads to a lineup that's a net -6.3.
Chicago will bounce back in 2022-23 if it can get Ball at full strength, and the team's depth improves. However, the Bulls won’t turn things around in time for this series against Milwaukee.
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Under 229.5 (-110)
The Bucks slowed things down during their first playoff series in 2020-21. After playing at the Association’s second-fastest pace that year, they didn't play 100 possessions in any of their four contests against the Miami Heat. After Milwaukee already played at a slower pace during the 2021-22 season, I’m comfortable with backing the Under here.
The Under cashed during two of the three Bucks-Bulls meetings this season, with totals of 230, 224, and 233. Milwaukee is 21-20 to the Over at home in 2021-22, but Chicago is 22-18-1 to the Under on the road. The teams are a combined 4-2 to the Under with four-plus days off.
None of those trends scream value in either direction. However, other books list the total at 228.5 or 229, which means there's value here. We’re getting a great deal at this price through DraftKings, and while the total isn’t my favorite play for this game, it’s more viable than other props.
SEE ALSO: Pelicans vs. Suns Picks
Bucks wire to wire (-112)
Targeting the Bucks on the wire-to-wire market means we’ll need them to end every quarter with the lead, and that should be easy. Milwaukee is the NBA’s second-best team in the first quarter, and I doubt Chicago will be able to take the lead back for any meaningful amount of time.
The Bucks own the Association’s second-best first-quarter margin at +2.5. In contrast, the Bulls sit in 18th with an average margin of -0.5. The first quarter ended in a tie once over the three meetings between these teams since the All-Star break, but the Bucks held a 13-point lead and a six-point margin during the other two contests. The Bulls never led at the end of a quarter in any of those matchups.
With Milwaukee a -265 favorite to win the first quarter, targeting them on the wire-to-wire market is a no-brainer. If the Bucks hold a 72.6% chance of winning the game’s first frame as the implied odds indicate, is their chance of never surrendering the lead again really only 52.8%?
Where to Bet on Bulls-Bucks Picks
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Bulls-Bucks picks made 4/17/2022 at 11:19 p.m. ET.
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