US Politics Super Bowl Props – Joe Biden’s SB Interview Betting Odds

It’s Super Bowl Prop Bet Season!

In the world of sports handicapping, it gets no better than Super Bowl weekend.

No other event generates such enormous interest in betting lines and football wagering. And the NFL oddsmakers reward the unparalleled levels of enthusiasm with an ever-growing number of ways to put more action on the big game each year.

Super Bowl prop bets have become a cultural phenomenon — an integral part of mainstream discourse during the two-week lead-up to the NFL’s annual finale. It’s exciting to see the many new and creative ways the bookmakers always find to set odds on every aspect of the NFL’s presentation.

It started with a few extra lines covering the coin toss, winning team’s Gatorade color, and National Anthem length – now those markets are industry-standard annual traditions. The top football betting sites release lists of thousands of proposition markets ranging from the mundane to outlandish.

US Politics X Super Bowl Props

Included in the massive selection of props being offered in 2021 are over a dozen Super Bowl LIV X US politics crossover wagers.

Between Trump’s polarizing nature and the 2020 election, political betting emerged as a legitimate betting category over the last few years. It makes sense for online oddsmakers to continue celebrating this newfound popularity by combining political odds and Super Bowl props! It’s the perfect combination: the fastest-growing – but still young – form of betting with “ol’ reliable.”

Whatever the case, I was beyond thrilled to discover 16 Super Bowl political props across three different top-ranked betting websites this week. We will be covering the topics and odds being offered, along with picks and predictions in this series of four blog posts.

This page is dedicated to the betting lines pertaining to Joe Biden’s White House interview airing ahead of the action this Sunday on CBS.

It’s become a tradition for the President to piggyback on the Super Bowl’s massive, captive television audience, granting a sit-down chat to the network broadcasting the game.

“It’s an audience that is not just going to be the true believers,” said Thomas Alan Schwartz, a presidential scholar at Vanderbilt.

99.9 million people watched last year’s Super Bowl, making it the most-watched TV event of 2020.

“The Super Bowl is one of the secular national holidays we have that tends to promote unity, the idea being that we all like watching the game. It’s an opportunity to hit an audience that he would otherwise have a hard time finding,” Schwartz added.

President Biden was interviewed by “CBS Evening News” anchor Norah O’Donnell; the network released some excerpts on Friday. It will be broadcast in its entirety at 4 PM EST on Sunday, roughly two-and-half hours before kick-off.

BetOnline – Which Word Will Biden Say First?

Said First Odds
Pandemic +100
Unity +200
Healing +250
Impeachment +400

By all accounts, Biden has two or three key messages he’s hoping to convey to the nation this weekend; they’re the same themes he’s espoused since winning the election.

  • It’s time to heal our deeply divided nation.
  • We are working to gain control of the pandemic and return to normalcy.
  • There are ongoing negotiations over a stimulus package that he hopes to send through congress soon. (Naturally, he won’t talk about how “$2,000 checks immediately” turned into “means-tested $1000 – 1400 checks by April,” but that’s a topic for another article.)
I feel comfortable eliminating “Impeachment” at +400 off the top.

Biden has continually reiterated that he wants to cooperate with Republicans and avoid deepening the country’s partisan divide. For better or worse, Donald Trump is still extremely popular among roughly 35-40% of GOP voters – the most vocal section of the party.

The interviewer will eventually ask about Trump’s impeachment since the media needs the former President for ratings. Still, I’m confident she’ll be respectful enough to wait until later in the conversation.

I have to go with “pandemic” at +100 here.

There’s no way to discuss the earliest days of the Biden presidency without mentioning the unfavorable conditions under which he entered office. The virus casts a shadow over everything.

Plus, the American people want to hear about the stimulus checks they were promised. They’ll prioritize that topic and promise viewers help is coming before hitting the Capitol riots and “unity,” or impeachment.

What Biden Says First
Pandemic
+100

MyBookie – Who Will Joe Biden Select to Win the Super Bowl?

(Biden must give pre-SB interview on CBS for act)

Biden’s Pick Odds
Kansas City Chiefs -120
Declines to Pick a Side -130
Tampa Bay Bucs +250
Wonders If They Can Both Win +500

I did some research and found videos of Joe Biden discussing previous Super Bowls – the Philadelphia Eagles’ win, in particular.

Dr. Biden grew up in Philadelphia while the President grew up in Scranton, PA, and spent most of his life in the Delaware valley nearby. He was thrilled when the Eagles upset the Patriots.

He also wasn’t shy about sharing his rooting interests:

At the same time, Mr. Biden wasn’t in office at the time of those clips. He’d recently finished eight years as Obama’s VP and couldn’t have imagined he had another presidential campaign in him – much less a successful one!

Just watch how his press secretary dodges a question about the President’s rooting interest:

Could that be indicative of the angle the White House is taking on Sunday?

There’s only one reason I’m willing to risk betting “Yes” at +150 odds: Tom Brady’s vocal support for Donald Trump the past four years.

Nobody in the Biden administration will ever so much as hint that Brady’s political leanings could impact the President’s pick, but the Democrats love performative messaging.

It’s like a reverse racist dog whistle. Nobody will address the elephant in the room. Nevertheless, they’re not going to predict another championship ring for a wealthy, white Trump supporter when the other option is a young Black superstar with no such baggage.

So, we know he’s not going to take the Buccaneers.

The question is whether he answers at all.

Florida is significantly more critical to the Democratic Party than Missouri. If Biden doesn’t want to be perceived as supporting MAGA Brady, I don’t see how he can make a pick at all.

That leaves us with two options:
  • “Decline to pick a side” at –130; or
  • “Wonders if they can both win” at +500.

Watching those old clips, the President clearly has at least a base of football knowledge. He’s comfortable and familiar talking about the game, so he knows both teams can’t win.

Still, that won’t stop him from sharing his desire to see everyone come out on top. It’s very on-brand right now for “Mr. Unity.”

I think Biden is going to try and take both teams as a cute rhetorical tactic to avoid taking a position and possibly make some Bucs fans mad.
Who Will Biden Pick to Win?
Wonders If They Can Both Win
+500

MyBookie – Will Joe Biden Make a Super Bowl Winner Selection?

(Biden must give pre-SB interview on CBS for act)

Super Bowl LIV props

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes+150
  • No-200

Based on everything in the previous section, I have to pick “No” at –200 here. If Biden had a personal connection to either of these teams, it might justify taking a side – but he doesn’t.

From what I was able to find, President Biden supports two NFL franchises:

  • The Eagles, due to his PA ties and wife from Philly; and
  • The Green Bay Packers. Here’s a quote from a 2011 interview at a Wisconsin radio station:

    “I went to a Catholic boys school in Claymont, Delaware, taught by an order of priests called Norbertines, who have their abbey house in De Pere,” Biden told John Mercure on WTMJ.

    “I have loved the Packers – not just because, back in those days, it was Bart Starr, Paul Hornung and the rest – but every Sunday the Packers won, the headmaster, Rev. Justin E. Diny, would get on the PA system, literally, and say, ‘Gentlemen, no last period today.’ Made every one of us Packers fans.”I’m fearful I’ll go to hell if I don’t root for the Packers; Father Diny may come back. I can’t go against Father Diny; he’ll come out of his grave if he knew I was rooting for somebody else.”

Joseph R. Biden, ever the politician.

Now I can’t help but wonder if he just claims to support whichever team is politically convenient at the moment. In 2011, he and Barrack were in the midst of a tightly contested reelection campaign.

That further solidifies my belief that he’ll pass on picking either side. Because Florida is the more electorally significant state – but then you’re back at the Brady-Trump issue again. And if you can’t support the Florida team, at the very least, you’d want to avoid going against them.

It’s like the movie War Games: “The only way to win is not to play.”
Not only am I confident that “No” at –200 is the smart play here, but I’m also feeling even better about “Wonders if both teams can win” at +500.

That’s Joe Biden’s MO — give the opposition nothing to work with while framing his refusal to answer as positively as possible.

“Come on, man! We’re all Americans; we’ve been through so much this past year, I just want us all to win. And that’s why I promise you’re $7.50 checks will be in the mail by August (for qualified citizens making less than $15k per year) with full bi-partisan support!”

We are going to have to make our own stimulus checks through Super Bowl prop betting!

Will Biden Pick a Winner?
No
-200

BetOnline – Will Joe Biden Mention the Eagles in the Interview?

Super Bowl LIV props

  • Matchup Odds
  • Yes+200
  • No-300

Okay, — we have video evidence of President Biden supporting the Eagles before! The only question is, why would they come up during the interview on Sunday?

If he’s not interested in picking either of this year’s teams, maybe he’ll bring up the last Super Bowl in which he was genuinely invested. That way, he can still come across as the “everyman” who can talk football without committing to either of Sunday’s teams.

The Eagles could also come up organically as the last team to beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl.

To me, that possibility is what makes “Yes” at +200 worth the risk.
  • If he doesn’t pick the Bucs or Chiefs, doesn’t it seem within the realm of possibility that Norah O’Donnell might ask President Biden his favorite team or most cherished Super Bowl memory?
  • Or if they’re discussing Tom Brady’s historic 10th trip to the Super Bowl and 6 Super Bowl rings, isn’t it believable that Biden might mention the last time he fell short in the big game?
+200 moneyline odds have an implied probability of 33.3%

I realize Sunday’s interview isn’t all about football, but the Super Bowl is the backdrop of the entire interview, so it’s going to come up.

For this bet to have value, you must believe there’s a better than 33.3% likelihood of Biden merely mentioning the Philadelphia Eagles. I think they’re just relevant enough to Sunday’s storyline and the President’s personal life to be worth it at +200 odds.

Will Biden Mention the Eagles?
Yes
+200

MyBookie – Which Team Name will be Said First by Biden?

Super Bowl LIV props

  • Matchup Odds
  • TB Buccaneers-120
  • KC Chiefs-120

Betting on which of the two teams Biden mentions first is essentially a coin flip (with a 17% vig at –120 on both sides). It just depends on what the interviewer asks and how she frames the question.

It feels like the presence of Tom Brady on the Buccaneers gives Tampa Bay a slight edge. But the interviewer could just as easily know that’s what people are expecting and save her Bucs questions for later.

All I can offer is some advice from the Arnold Rothstein character on HBO’s Boardwalk Empire series:

“Flip a coin; when it’s in the air you’ll know which side you’re hoping for.”
Which Team Will He Say First?
Tampa Bay Bucs
-120

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