NCAA Tournament First Round Picks for Saturday

Here we take a look at the NCAAB odds for two of Saturday’s matches. First, in what projects to be the most thrilling game of all of the first round, LSU’s top offense will take on St. Bonaventure’s top defense.

Then we got the Cavaliers against the Bobcats. Everyone loves a good upset and plenty are going to be on Ohio as the 13 seed to upset Virginia who are the fourth seed. But this might not be the matchup that Ohio wanted.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. LSU Tigers

Saturday, March 20, 2021 1:45 PM EST at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall

St. Bonaventure

Tidbit: Great at setting up plays in the half court

LSU

Tidbit: They score more points out of isolation than any team in the nation - many extremely talented scorers on this team.

The Matchup

St. Bonaventure has a top 20 defense and limits opponents to 45.5 percent effective field goal percentage. The problem is that LSU is all isolation basketball and they have some of the best pure scorers in the nation. It doesn’t matter how good your defense is. They’ll score.

On offense, the Bonnies don’t get to the line but will shoot 35.4 percent from three, although they won’t shoot a ton. Off those misses, they’ll be able to rebound off a very poor rebounding on the defensive end by LSU.

If the Bonnies look to score inside, they won’t exploit LSU’s defensive rebounding as much but will shoot at a higher percentage at least.

LSU should put in work on their offensive glass and shoot at a higher percentage from inside. They also shoot 35 percent from three and should get to the line more frequently.

The Tigers want to keep the pace up tempo while St. Bonaventure wants to slow things down. If the Bonnies don’t take many threes and shoot inside, they’ll stick around with LSU but their opponents will likely hit more shots from long range and get to the line more often.

Closer shots from St. Bonaventure mean less offensive rebounds too. I like LSU in this spot for my NCAAB picks. They just took down Arkansas and almost won the SEC against Alabama.

NCAAB Pick: LSU -1.5 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

LSU -1.5(-112)

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Ohio Bobcats vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Saturday, March 20, 2021 7:15 PM EST at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall

Virginia

Tidbit: Jay Huff will have reverse dunks in this game.

The team had to forfeit the ACC semifinal due to a positive COVID test. But don’t forget, they won the championship in 2019 and are capable of getting there again with Sam Hauser and Jay Huff leading the way down low. Both are seniors and have plenty of experience at this stage. We’ll have to see if they’re all healthy and able to play in this tournament.

Ohio

Tidbit: Jason Preston is a triple-double threat and has LaMelo Ball vibes.

This team is ranked 29th in offensive efficiency behind Preston and almost upset Illinois earlier this year. Ohio absolutely smoked Cleveland State, the clear Horizon favorites and tournament champions earlier in the season too.

Breakdown on Ohio

Most games they’re going to have the best player in Jason Preston. He's a clear NBA talent and an elite point guard. He has the ball in his hands and is a playmaker. This gives them a chance against anyone.

However, this team is much deeper than just Preston. They’re one of the top passing teams in the country. The problem is that Ohio might struggle to rebound against more physical rebounding teams in the country.

Teams have to be dominant inside when rebounding on the defensive end and Virginia is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the nation.

The Matchup

Behind Preston, Ohio has the 13th highest effective field goal percentage and won’t turn the ball over against Virginia. They’ll get their opportunities and this team can shoot. They’re shooting 36.6 percent from three and 56.4 percent inside while average at the foul line with 70.6 percent from the line.

Ohio assists on most of their buckets this season, ranking 23rd in assists to field goals made this season. They’re balanced and don’t get to the line very often. That should stand true against Virginia.

Virginia, despite being known for incredible defense, has fantastic offensive numbers. Virginia has an effective field goal percentage of 56.1 percent and turns the ball over just 15.4 percent of the time, good for 15th in the nation.

They are shooting 38.1 percent from three and 55.3 percent from inside. Also 81.7 percent from the foul line. Virginia is extremely efficient and that Ohio defense really isn’t all that.

Virginia is a slow tempo team going up against a fast Ohio team. Ohio will want to dictate the tempo but Virginia will slow things down, defend well and force Ohio into some tough shots.

A lot of people are going to be taking Ohio in this match-up but it’s a bad draw for Ohio. Can they cover the spread? It’s possible. Can Ohio win this game? It’ll be very hard.

Virginia is efficient. Ohio might get out to an early lead but when that happens, look to live bet Virginia on the top sportsbooks. They’ll come storming back.

NCAAB Pick: Virginia -7.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Virginia -7.5(-105)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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