Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan Best Sports Picks Carlos Ulberg vs Khalil Rountree Jr Dominick Cruz vs Pedro Munhoz Drew Dober vs Diego Ferreira Israel Adesanya Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira Jordan Espinosa vs Su Madeargi Joseph Benavidez vs The Couch Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Dustin Jacoby Song Yadong vs Sean O’Malley Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev Tim Elliott vs Kai Kara France UFC Betting UFC Picks

Handicapping the Fights to Make After UFC 259 Part 2

March 10, 2021
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UFC 259, on paper, was the best fight card in the history of the UFC. There were 5 undefeated fighters on the card, 6 with one loss, and 12 with between 2 and 4 defeats. That is insanity!

We had 4 world champions fight on the night but only two of them ended up getting the victory. We had several prospects look amazing as well as The GOAT, The Lioness, Amanda Nunes, doing her thing with a first round triangle arm bar combo for the tap out.

The co-co-main event, of course, ending with controversy as Petr Yan was disqualified for kneeing Aljamain Sterling in the face while he was clearly on the mat and not even attempting to get up.

Petr Yan Illegal Knee

It was a clear foul and Petr Yan was winning the fight 2 rounds to 1 on 2 of the 3 judges’ scorecards. He was on his way to winning the 4th round also so it would have taken a finish from Sterling to get his hand raised.

I don’t like all the crap that Sterling is getting about this. He did the right thing. He knew the rematch would be scheduled immediately. These two will pick up where they left off and if Petr is truly deserving, he will get his belt back soon enough.

Please Note:
Aljo is going to make more money in the rematch because he is the champion and he also got his win bonus on Saturday at UFC 259. I think he did the right thing-take the money, don’t act like you won the belt, and fight again in a few months.

I wanted to handicap some future potential matchups for some of the competitors from UFC 259. This includes both Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan who will in fact be fighting each other. Something tells me that Sterling won’t be the slight betting favorite this time around.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Dustin Jacoby

Both fighters are roughly on the same schedule and this would make for a contrasting of striking styles that really interests me. Dustin Jacoby is the better guy on paper but Kennedy just beat a striker even more highly touted than Dustin in Carlos Ulberg.

Dustin Jacoby is a one or two strike at a time kinda guy while Kennedy Nz loves to put together a seemingly endless stream of strikes. Eventually, one is going to catch you. Then, it will be two and before you know it, the guy is hitting you with a 3 punch combo when he couldn’t touch you with one in the first round.

One of the things I am focusing on right now with my handicapping are the rounds and which fighters are best early on and which guys are likely to take the third. I think this fight, it is safe to say that Dustin Jacoby would probably win the first round.

Dustin Jacoby Kicking

Also, Kennedy, as long as he hasn’t taken too much damage but he proved himself to be durable at UFC 259, will likely win the third round. You can’t keep these tall athletic fighters with reaches over 80 inches down for long.

Maybe they get the job with the UFC a little early in their development because of their projected ceiling but don’t write these guys off. Let them get a couple of losses then get a couple of wins and you can have a near 2 to 1 live underdog as we saw with Kennedy last week.

Kennedy is coming around and this fight would be very close. I think it comes down to who wins round two. That is if it goes to a decision. Both men are giants, so this one could end at any moment.

Dustin Jacoby (-130) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (+110)

Jordan Espinosa vs Su Madeargi

Jordan is always getting matched up with fighters who want to take him down.

I get it. He is a good striker with poor takedown defense. It isn’t a hard puzzle.

It doesn’t appear that Espinosa has much of a future left with the company and if he has another fight on his contract, I say give him a chance against another striker. It’s a win win if you’re the UFC.

If he looks good and wins, then he did it with striking and it was an exciting fight. Then, hopefully you can sell him as a fun fighter the next time out. If he loses, then Su looks even better. The Chinese market is obviously bigger than the Jordan Espinosa fan cub.

Su Madeargi Punching

Also, if Jordan loses, the company will have a great deal of leverage during contract extension negotiations if that even happens. I think they would just be happy to cut him but it never hurts to have a young athletic guy on the roster who can take a whoppin’.

I like Su here by a fairly close margin. He is the more dynamic striker and I think that will make the difference against Jordan Espinosa.

Su Madeargi (-180) vs Jordan Espinosa (+160).

Tim Elliott vs Kai Kara France

I love this matchup! Both men, of course, are coming off of big wins this past Saturday at UFC 259. Tim Elliott was able to grind out Jordan Espinosa showing that his 34 year old body still works.

Tim is one of the best takedown artists in MMA today. His biggest problem is that he has trouble holding guys down. Elliott is also very reckless on the mat choosing to scramble his way out of everything or at least try.

His opponent, who is ranked just above him, Kai Kara France is a striker with solid takedown defense. We saw Bontorin get his back but ultimately Kai finished him off with strikes by the end of the first round.

This is striker vs grappler and the grappler is a takedown machine!

Kai has excellent footwork, though, and get ups. He is also the younger man by a whopping 7 years and you better believe that counts for a lot. Every five years younger, with the elder in their 30’s, of course, should account for a 10% change in the implied probability to win.

For Example:
If we handicap this fight and Kai Kara France comes out as the (-135) favorite before age is considered, I think this betting line gets on the move to somewhere around (-185).

Tough fight to call but I will give the edge to Kara France because of the age difference. I think Elliott wins the first round like he often does but then Kai starts to come on late, defending more takedown attempts from Elliott and tiring Timbo even more.

Kai Kara France (-135) vs Tim Elliott (+115)

Joseph Benavidez vs The Couch

I would love to see Joe B hang it up but the guy is such a fierce competitor and has been competing at the highest level since he joined the UFC. It’s going to be very difficult for a guy like him to ride off into the sunset.

At least he has Megan Olivi. She seems like a sweetheart and will take good care of him even if his pockets get lite.

Relax for a bit, Joe and try to let your mind calm. That will calm your body and hopefully you don’t have any more post concussive symptoms. That stuff scares me so much.

Song Yadong vs Sean O’Malley

Oh, Salty Sean! There you are. We missed you so much. That’s a lie. Nobody misses that dude.

He still will not take responsibility for his loss to Marlon Vera. The guy specializes in calf kicks, you have a history of being hurt by them, he kicks your lower leg, you have nerve issues and get finished in an instant.

How is this not a clean win for Chito? I went into that fight a fan of O’Malley because I thought, hey tall skinny striker like me, just a lot better. That’s pretty rad. But Chito Vera broke the boy down and unfortunately for Sean, it doesn’t appear Marlon was able to make a man out of him.

I like his chances quite a bit here against a recent former opponent of Chito, Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong. Here’s the thing with Song. The blueprint on how to beat the guy is already out there. Stay away from his right hand and pick him apart.

That sounds like a good fight for Sean who has long limbs and the ability to strike with timing from distance.

I give Sean the edge here but not by much. Song is still only 23 years old and should be improving from fight to fight. You know also that Urijah Faber and the coaches over at TAM will have him kicking that calf early and often.

I still like Sean here, though.

Sean O’Malley (-177) vs Song Yadong (+157)

Dominick Cruz vs Pedro Munhoz

Cory Sandhagen is waiting on his title shot next and Frankie Edgar needs to rest his head. That leaves Cody Garbrandt which really doesn’t make sense right now and one of the men to defeat Cody, recent winner Pedro Munhoz.

The Brazilian has an exceptional calf kick and it will be very interesting to see if he can implement it against someone as elusive and unpredictable as Dominick Cruz. Also, can Pedro find that chin?

Cruz was being more aggressive than normal in his fight against Casey Kenney at UFC 259.

I don’t think he would be so comfortable dipping his head hard in the pocket against a power puncher the likes of Pedro Munhoz.

They are both on the same schedule and coming off of wins. Rob Font is the only other name in the mix but I would love to see him fight Jose Aldo next. There are a ton of exciting matchups to be made at 135 pounds.

I love this Bantamweight Division! As for this matchup, I am going to give Cruz the edge here also.

Pedro is not known for his footwork and Dom is going to be in and out of there on him. If it’s a 3 round fight, I favor Cruz.

If this turns out to be a Fight Night main event and we are scheduled for 5 full rounds, I will edge Pedro as he has excellent energy efficiency and more time to catch the former world champion on the button.

Dominick Cruz (-130) vs Pedro Munhoz (+110)

Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev

Thiago Santos is always going to be able to sell a fight because fans know he is incredibly aggressive and has the ability to knock out any fighter on the roster at any weight.

Thiago also may be the downright scariest guy on the roster.

Thiago Santos In UFC Ring

Just looking at him will make any man get some goosebumps and a knot in their stomach. Thiago has now lost 2 fights in a row, though, to Glover Texiera and at UFC 259, he fell victim to the technical prowess and youth of Alexander Rakic.

Thiago is 37 and has never been the same since he tore every knee ligament known to man against Jon Jones and fought for 15+ minutes more.

Jon Jones Vs Thiago Santos

The UFC is surely looking to move away from Santos and I think a matchup against Magomed Ankalaev would expedite that process.

Ankalaev will likely challenge for the belt one day but at a much younger age than when Thiago did it at 35. Magomed needs a step up in competition after his win over Nikita Krylov or should I say a bigger name.

Magomed Ankalaev Vs Nikita Krylov

Krylov is a guy I would rate with Santos right now considering the age of the latter.

Magomed had some issues but was able to pull away for the win. I think this fight will play out much like the Alexander Rakic fight and tell us a lot, hopefully, about a potential future showdown between Ankalaev and Rakic.

I believe Ankalaev gets his hand raised against Thiago Santos 70% of the time.

Magomed Ankalaev (-250) vs Thiago Santos (+200)

Drew Dober vs Diego Ferreira

Both fighters are roughly on the same fight schedule and each are coming off of a loss that ended a win streak. Diego Ferreira lost to Beneil Dariush in a rematch again and Drew is, of course, coming off of a devastating dominating loss to Islam Makhachev.

These two were already scheduled to fight in May and then again in November and both fights fell through. Let’s put it together for about 10 weeks from now or so. We can keep them both active.

I feel like this is a good fight for Drew Dober. He can get taken down but Diego isn’t that guy. He is a pressure fighter who wears guys down then gets them to the mat and does work.

Drew is still in his prime at 32 while Diego just turned 36 in January. Those are a big 4 years and I like Drew Dober to win a striking battle here against Diego Ferreira.

It is close, though.

Drew Dober (-140) vs Diego Ferreira (+120)

Carlos Ulberg vs Khalil Rountree Jr

Because, why not? Carlos is a very highly touted striker who the company would love to see succeed as he has the country of New Zealand behind him training at the popular successful gym in Auckland, City Kickboxing.

Khalil I believe has come back to the states after spending nearly the entirety of 2020 in Thailand down in Phuket. He trains like a Thai fighter and that is going to get him taken down and mauled by much of the division.

Against Carlos Ulberg, though, I think it will just make for a fun fight!

Even though Khalil is my boy, I have to edge Ulberg here. Rountree has been putting in uninspired performances as of late and he is not getting any more of our money.

Carlos Ulberg (-220) vs Khalil Rountree (+180)

Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan

Yes, I saved the obvious but also best for last. Aljamain Sterling is another guy I have trained with before and it sucks to see him catching so much crap from all the keyboard warriors.

Anthony Smith had this happen with Jon Jones and he could have taken the belt but chose not to. Sterling was smart, though, and he was still in the fight. If he would have scored something significant in the 4th, he would have been tied on two cards and ahead on the other.

It wasn’t like he was completely dead in the water. The fight was trending in that direction, though, don’t get me wrong. Aljamain Sterling looked alright in the beginning of the fight but not much more than that.

He was trying to place his strikes instead of just throwing them. I’m not sure why either because he wasn’t worried about the takedown. Aljo was trying too hard and it showed.

Petr Yan just kept to his game and trusted that eventually he would get to Sterling and he did. Aljo wasn’t quitting or anything but he was feeling the pace and eventually fatigue makes cowards of us all.

Lombardi said that I do believe and boy is he right. I don’t mind getting beat up if I can fight back. It’s a fight but if I’m gassed and getting whooped just so I don’t quit-life sucks!

I am going to favor Petr Yan heavily in the rematch as I imagine most will.

Petr Yan (-220) vs Aljamain Sterling (+190)

Israel Adesanya vs Winner of Whittaker and Costa

There isn’t too much to say here. Israel Adesanya has already smoked each man and we don’t know who is going to get the w.


Let’s just say Bobby Knuckles gets the W and a rematch ‘Straya vs the Kiwis.

I have it (-320) Adesanya and (+275) for Whittaker.

Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira

Finally, Glover is getting another shot at the world title. He fought Jon Jones for the belt once upon a time but he has somehow, some way scratched and clawed his way back to the top.

Glover Teixeira And Jon Jones Fight

Now, is his time but he is going to have a supremely confident man standing across from him inside the Octagon. I don’t think Glover gets it done this time.

He is 41 years old now and could be 42 by the time the two men actually fight. That is just too much for me to get behind and it will certainly affect the handicapping.

Jan is primarily a striker and if he gets put on his back by Teixeira, it might be a long night. I don’t think Glover will get there, though. The size of the Octagon will certainly play a factor in this fight.

The large Octagon favors the champion and the smaller Octagon favors the challenger who wants to wrestle.

The age is a big reason why here but I have to line it this way.

Jan Blachowicz (-188) vs Glover Teixeira (+168)

In Conclusion

There you have it, team. Handicapped potential future fights for every competitor from UFC 259. It was the best show ever on paper and the eye test didn’t disappoint.

Being able to properly handicap a fight is the first step and perhaps the most important in being a successful better on UFC/mixed martial arts fights. From there, it is decision making and bet sizing. A proper handicap comes first from not knowing the betting line before you cap the fight. You are surely going to have a decent idea if your knowledge base is up but you can’t know.

If you already know the betting line, then you are already biased. We are human and we need to make that fact work for us and not against us. That’s the key to life, essentially.

Please Note:
We will watch tape on both fighters as well as check their Instagrams for anything strange as well as doing our best to diagnose their current mental state. Interviews are very important too along with statistics. Nothing is more important than tape, though, and we can’t rely on our memories all the time. Maybe you can but not this guy. After we do all of that, then we assign an implied probability like 60% to win. If the betting odds agree, then there is no edge on the sportsbooks and over time, we wouldn’t make that much money on these plays.

If we value a fighter at 70% and we can get him for a 60% price tag like (-150), then we make the play. That is a 10% edge. We really only need 5% to make a play. I like to size my bets by one unit per 5% edge we have on the books.

Sometimes, this could mean a 4 or 5 unit bet but it isn’t often. We know at least one of the fights we broke down today will happen again. Aljamain Sterling will now be the champion defending his belt against Petr Yan.

I have Yan here this time, though, all the way.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/handicapping-the-fights-to-make-after-ufc-259-part-2/

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