Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2020, Part 2

In Part 2 of The Fantasy Footballers TRUTH about RBs episode, hosted by Mike Wright and his new best friend Jason Moore, the guys dig into the RBs that missed the top-8 in 2020. Like with the QBs, these 2nd tier guys are important, because they are likely to come cheaper in drafts next season, and picking the right player could make or break your season. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about.

If you missed Part 1, I covered that for you as well and if you’re looking for even more great info, we have two RB-focused articles for you to check out. Jeff Greenwood put together the 25 Stats from RB in 2020 and I did some research on the correlation between defenses and RB targets.

Quick Explanation

The Fantasy Footballers base RB fantasy points on .5 PPR Scoring. Consistency scores are based on a player’s Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:

Great Games are more than 21 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 11 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 7 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score

9. Nick Chubb (ADP: RB13/ 2.03) – Consistency Rank: 5
1st half of season consistency rank: 27 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 3

12 games — 190/1067/12 — 18 targets for 16/150/0 — 1 fumble
Great 33% | Good 83% | Bust 17%
Defenses: -1.15 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.15 fantasy points on average at Home

How awesome was Nick Chubb in 2020? He was a top-10 RB while missing 25% of the season! Early in the season, it looked like Kareem Hunt might be the better Browns RB but after Chubb returned from injury, it was clear he was the best back in Cleveland. He is the only modern-era RB to put up these type of numbers in fewer than 13 games. He is not quite a top-tier back in this current situation but he is a back worth rostering in 2021 for sure.

10. Kareem Hunt (ADP: RB25 / 5.03) – Consistency Rank: 26
1st half of season consistency rank: 15 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 31

16 games — 198/841 /6 — 51 targets for 38/304/5 — 2 fumbles
Great 13% | Good 50% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -6.36 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.94 fantasy points on average at Home

Hunt was great in the 1st half of the season and was helped along by Nick Chubb‘s injury but this final ranking feels inflated. He is an incredible insurance back but what we saw in the 2nd half is probably what you can expect more of in 2021. The Browns came out of their bye with both backs healthy and they used Chubb far better for fantasy purposes. There is a good chance Hunt will be overdrafted in 2021 and that will make him hard to trust. He is still a fine fantasy asset but be careful when you draft him.

11. Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: RB3 / 1.03) – Consistency Rank: 17
1st half of season consistency rank: 16 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 24

15 games — 244/979/6 — 71 targets for 52/338/2 — 6 fumbles
Great 13% | Good 60% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -0.23 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.6 fantasy points on average at Home

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The thing about Zeke’s 2020 is that you need to look at the 1st five weeks when he played with Dak Prescott. He was the RB5 overall and never finished worse than the RB16 in any of those games. After Dak, and a plethora of other Cowboys injuries, including Zeke himself, Zeke fell off of a fantasy cliff. To make matters worse, he fumbled the ball six times this season. Not good. You have to expect a bounceback next season, especially if Dak is back, and there is a good chance his ADP drops in 2021 but there are certainly red-flags surrounding Elliott in 2021.

12. Antonio Gibson (ADP: RB26 / 5.04) – Consistency Rank: 18
1st half of season consistency rank: 24 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 14

14 games — 170/795/11 — 44 targets for 36/247/0 — 2 fumbles
Great 7% | Good 57% | Bust 14%
Defenses: -8.76 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.91 fantasy points on average at Home

It was not an ideal beginning of the year for Gibson and he ended with turf toe issues but that middle was a thing of beauty. He is going to be a great fantasy asset in this system and is likely to be even better next season. Everything we saw this year was still while he was in a committee with JD McSmooches. Gibson should see far more work as a sophomore back in 2021 and, because he ended the year injured, he should be a value in fantasy drafts.

13. Melvin Gordon (ADP: RB21 / 4.01) – Consistency Rank: 24
1st half of season consistency rank: 17 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 29

15 games — 215/986/9 — 44 targets for 32/158/1 — 4 fumbles
Great 13% | Good 53% | Bust 27%
Defenses: +0.52 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.05 fantasy points on average at Home

Gordon had his weeks in 2021 and was far better when Phillip Lindsay was out but this is as “meh” a season for an RB13 that one can remember. He didn’t help people a lot in 2020 and he just didn’t feel like a top-tier RB. Lindsay is a restricted free agent and if he were to leave, that might make Gordon more valuable in 2021 but he is not a player to target in next season unless he falls in drafts.

14. Kenyan Drake (ADP: RB12 / 2.02) – Consistency Rank: 21
1st half of season consistency rank: 28 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 16

15 games — 239/955/10 — 31 targets for 25/137/0 — 3 fumbles
Great 13% | Good 53% | Bust 27%
Defenses: -2.9 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -5.38 fantasy points on average at Home

Speaking of meh! Drake was only Good in half of his games and Busted 27% of the time. The start of the season was dreadful but it got better after Week 5. His lack of passing-game work hurt his fantasy season compared to what we saw to end 2019. Drake is a free agent in 2021 and it doesn’t feel like he’ll be back in Arizona so determining his value will be highly contingent on his landing spot.

Mike Davis was the RB15 but the TRUTH is that you don’t need to know the truth about Mike Davis. He is a free agent and if Christian McCaffrey is healthy, Davis will not see the field if he stays in Carolina.

16. Ronald Jones (ADP: RB37 / 7.12) – Consistency Rank: 20
1st half of season consistency rank: 26 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 18

14 games — 192/978/7 — 42 targets for 28/165/1 — 2 fumbles
Great 14% | Good 50% | Bust 21%
Defenses: -8.54 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +0.3 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Jones was talked about in the Buy or Sell section of the show. There is no denying Jones was a value in fantasy drafts last season but it was a weird offseason to get us there after the addition of Leonard Fournette. Fournette has supplanted Jones in the real playoffs and that is making it hard to trust Jones heading into 2021. Fournette is a free agent, so it could be Jones’ backfield again next season, but it is clear that the team would prefer a more diverse back to pair with him. The team could add another back in free agency and they also drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn last year. Bruce Arians hates rookie RBs and may give Vaughn a better shot in 2021.

17. Chris Carson (ADP: RB16 / 2.12) – Consistency Rank: 13
1st half of season consistency rank: 11 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 19

12 games — 141/681/5 — 46 targets for 37/287/4 — 1 fumble
Great 17% | Good 58% | Bust 8%
Defenses: -1.77 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.62 fantasy points on average at Home

Carson was good back for most of 2020 but the Seahawks RB is a free agent heading into 2021. He showed great promise as a pass-catcher but Seattle was using a committee approach late in the season. If he is back with the Seahawks, he should be a very good fantasy RB yet again.

18. D’Andre Swift (ADP: RB31 / 6.05) – Consistency Rank: 16
1st half of season consistency rank: 28 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10

13 games — 114/521/8 — 57 targets for 46/357/2 — 3 fumbles
Great 15% | Good 62% | Bust 23%
Defenses: +0.8 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.63 fantasy points on average at Home

Swift was trending towards being a very good RB but was derailed by an injury to end the season. The problem with looking at 2020 for Swift is that TRUTH no longer exists. The Lions will have a new coach, a new QB, and a lot of other new faces around Swift in 2021. Dan Campbell is already talking about using Swift in the slot and more passing-game usage will obviously help his fantasy prospects. Confidence is high for Swift but the looming possibility of a bad offense hurts his ceiling.

Nyheim Hines was the RB19 and was not discussed on the show.

20. J.K. Dobbins (ADP: RB30 / 6.01) – Consistency Rank: 29
1st half of season consistency rank: 50 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

15 games — 134/805/9 — 24 targets for 18/120/0 — 2 fumbles
Great 7% | Good 53% | Bust 47%
Defenses: -3.31 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.76 fantasy points on average at Home

Dobbins season really came to life when Mark Ingram went down. From Week 11 on, Dobbins was the RB8 and never finished outside of the top-20. No team will run the ball more than the Ravens and that means great things for Dobbins. He has all the measurables, the only real question surrounding Dobbins is where he will go in fantasy drafts next season.

21. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP: RB5 / 1.05) – Consistency Rank: 23
1st half of season consistency rank: 19 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 25

13 games — 181/803/4 — 54 targets for 36/297/1 — 0 fumbles
Great 0% | Good 46% | Bust 15%
Defenses: -7.3 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.75 fantasy points on average at Home

CEH benefitted more than any other rookie from his landing spot. He was not really regarded as a top RB coming into the draft but when he was the only RB taken into the 1st Round of the NFL Draft that shot his ADP up in fantasy drafts. There is no way you were happy with what you got from him as a rookie, but he should be much better next season, and it will be interesting to see how far he falls in fantasy drafts in his 2nd year.

22. Miles Sanders (ADP: RB11 / 1.12) – Consistency Rank: 15
1st half of season consistency rank: 6 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 28

12 games — 164/867/6 — 52 targets for 28/197/0 — 4 fumbles
Great 17% | Good 58% | Bust 17%
Defenses: +3.33 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.9 fantasy points on average at Home

Sanders started the year hurt but it is hard to judge his TRUTH based on the dumpster fire that was Philadelphia in 2020. Sanders’ long runs saved his fantasy day numerous times during the season, and while you can’t take those away from him, it makes him a risky weekly play. This team is likely going to lean on Sanders in 2021 but there are a lot of questions surrounding this team as a whole.

23. JD McKissic (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 32
1st half of season consistency rank: 57 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 20

16 games — 85/365/1 — 110 targets for 80/589/2 — 3 fumbles
Great 6% | Good 38% | Bust 44%
Defenses: +1.79 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.83 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

25. James Conner (ADP: RB15 / 2.09) – Consistency Rank: 19
1st half of season consistency rank: 8 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 32

13 games — 169/721/6 — 43 targets for 35/215/0 — 2 fumbles
Great 8% | Good 62% | Bust 31%
Defenses: +0.51 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.88 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

26. Myles Gaskin (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 6
1st half of season consistency rank: 10 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 2

10 games — 142/584/3 — 47 targets for 41/388/2 — 2 fumbles
Great 10% | Good 80% | Bust 0%
Defenses: -4.62 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -4.58 fantasy points on average at Home

It needs to be noted that the RB1 for the Dolphins is a very valuable fantasy asset. On top of Gaskins’ success, backup Salvon Ahmed had a Consistency Rank of 25. If the Dolphins sell out to get Deshaun Watson, they will not likely have the draft capital to get a great RB, and Gaskin could be a steal in 2021.

27. David Johnson (ADP: RB17 / 3.03) – Consistency Rank: 11
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 15

12 games — 147/691/6 — 46 targets for 33/314/2 — 2 fumbles
Great 8% | Good 67% | Bust 17%
Defenses: +1.7 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.7 fantasy points on average at Home

While it didn’t feel like it, David Johnson was good for fantasy football purposes. There are a lot of questions around this team, starting with “Who will be the QB?” and either David or Duke Johnson could end up being a cap causality. He will not be a fun draft pick but he is not a guy you should forget about when drafting next season.

29. Austin Ekeler (ADP: RB10 / 1.11) – Consistency Rank: 12
1st half of season consistency rank: 20 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 11

10 games — 116/530/1 — 65 targets for 54/403/2 — 1 fumble
Great 10% | Good 60% | Bust 10%
Defenses: -10.6 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.26 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

43. Cam Akers (ADP: RB24 / 4.08) – Consistency Rank: 49
1st half of season consistency rank: 76 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 26

13 games — 145/625/2 — 14 targets for 11/123/1 — 1 fumble
Great 0% | Good 23% | Bust 62%
Defenses: -0.57 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +2.6 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

48. Raheem Mostert (ADP: RB22 / 4.05) – Consistency Rank: 27
1st half of season consistency rank: 7 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 53

8 games — 104/521/2 — 19 targets for 16/156/1 — 1 fumble
Great 13% | Good 38% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -0.63 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -0.35 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

49. Joe Mixon (ADP: RB8 / 1.09) – Consistency Rank: 22
1st half of season consistency rank: 22 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: NA

6 games — 119/428/3 — 26 targets for 21/138/1 — 1 fumble
Great 17% | Good 50% | Bust 17%
Defenses: -9.03 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +12.25 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Was not discussed on the show.

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