Bucks vs. Suns NBA Finals Game 2: Solar Power

Everything went smoothly for the Phoenix Suns in Game 1. Is there any reason to put the Milwaukee Bucks in Thursday’s Game 2 NBA picks?

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns

Thursday, July 8, 2021 – 9:00 PM ET at Phoenix Suns Arena

It’s over. Okay, technically, the Milwaukee Bucks are only down 0-1 in their best-of-seven NBA Finals series versus the Phoenix Suns, but after what Phoenix did to them Tuesday night in Game 1, it sure feels like it’s over. The Suns smashed Milwaukee 118-105 as 4.5-point home faves on the closing NBA lines, pulling away in the second half and fending off a late Bucks surge to win by double digits.

We’ve seen this movie before, though. Just when it seems like the Bucks are down, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has been tamed, something weird happens. It almost happened in Game 1, when Brook Lopez closed in on Chris Paul while the latter was shooting a three; Paul barely avoided a sprained ankle or worse. What craziness will we see Thursday night in Game 2? Will it be enough for us to change our best bet from Phoenix to Milwaukee?

The Body Politic

We ain’t scurred. Let the chips fall where they may, but from a basketball standpoint, Phoenix had the winning blueprint in Game 1. While each team had 88 field-goal attempts, the Suns got to take an extra 10 free throws, and they beat the Bucks even though Milwaukee shot 16-for-36 (44.4 percent) from downtown, compared to 11-for-34 (32.4 percent) for Phoenix. Positive regression isn’t coming to save the Bucks.

There isn’t a lot of room for Antetokounmpo to improve, either. Despite missing the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals with a hyper-extended left knee, Giannis suited up in Game 1 and didn’t look the worse for wear. He was still out-played by Deandre Ayton, though. Here are their Box Plus/Minus numbers from Tuesday night, as provided by Basketball Reference:

• Antetokounmpo: plus-6.7 BPM

• Ayton: plus-9.6

That’s basically it right there. When Antetokounmpo and the Bucks run into a team with one or more bigs who can “body up” the two-time league MVP, they’re in trouble. Milwaukee escaped the last two rounds in large part because Kyrie Irving and Trae Young were injured and couldn’t take advantage. Unless the same thing happens to Paul, who scored 32 points in Game 1 and posted a plus-17.0 BPM, the Bucks are toast.

Super Khris At Best

Unless Khris Middleton gets hot again. No matter what the lamestream media will have you believe, Middleton (plus-1.3 BPM on the season, minus-0.6 BPM in Game 1) is no superstar. He’s an excellent shooter, too good to be brushed aside as merely a volume scorer, but Middleton is overmatched defensively in this series. Does the betting public even notice this? Of course not.

With all that being said, FiveThirtyEight project Phoenix to win Game 2 by five points, and the Suns are 5.5-point home faves on the NBA odds board at Heritage Sports as we go to press. We’re willing to overlook that projection here at the home office, based on the dynamics of this particular matchup, but it does give us enough pause to size down our bets. It’s the NBA Finals. Anything can happen – even the Bucks winning.

NBA Pick: Suns -5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Suns -5.5(-108)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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