Last week Swinger made his first 5 STAR PLAY of the season and hit it when the Buffalo Bills covered the number over the LA Chargers. Let’s see what NFL picks he has for us this week!
Crystal Ball is Murky
Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 20-16-1 ATS (+5.89 units)
Last week I wound up laying points with all three of my top NFL picks. For a guy who talks an awful lot about square play and mocking the masses, I’ve been exactly what I despise – Joe Q. Public, Square of the Year. It’s true because that’s what happens when your crystal ball is murky. You tend to manufacture opinions that are based on which team will win the game (which most of the time is the favorite) and then assuming if they win, they will cover.
Well that’s stupid, right? It’s why we have a point spread and why so many recreational sports bettors get pounded year after year. There is value in underdogs because most of the time the oddsmakers slant the line more towards the favorites because they will get the square money no matter what, so why not make them lay a bad line? Of course, if the books overdo it, the sharps will pounce and gobble all of that value on the inflated underdog.
So, what’s my point? Well, last week was more of the same as I had the Giants -6 over the Bengals for two units. Sure enough, the Giants won but failed to cover in a 19-17 win. I saw that coming and even said in last week’s column, “who are the Giants to be laying six?” which is why the wager was cut down to just two units. If only I took my own advice.
Oh, and my three-unit play on the Rams -6 ½ was another beauty. They not only failed to cover, but they lost outright to the 49ers. Gee, who would have thought that would happen after the Rams were still celebrating a huge win over the Bucs the week before, only to face a weak sister in the 49ers, with a big game looming the following week against the Cardinals. Nope, didn’t look like a trap game at all. This is what happens when you’re not seeing the board clearly.
However, it wasn’t all bad, as I cashed with my first five-unit play of the year when the Bills survived a late scare by the Chargers and covered the 5 ½ point impost in a 27-17 victory. Funny, it feels more cathartic to kvetch about my losses than to revel in my covers. I must say though, that was a good one. All in all, we lost only 0.44 units last week after going 1-2 ATS. Let’s strive to do better, shall we?
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 6, 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
The Vikings nearly lost to the Panthers last week but eked out a 28-27 win while the Jags fell for the 10th consecutive time this season in a 27-25 loss to the Browns. But you know what? The Jags looked better in defeat than the Vikings did in victory.
And you know what else? Mike Glennon looked good last week and should be able to take advantage of a banged-up Vikings defense. Oh, and by the way, if we toss the Jags’ 27-3 loss to the best team in football, the Pittsburgh Steelers, we see that Jacksonville has lost three of their last four games by an average of 2.6 points per game.
The last time I checked, the Vikings were 5-6 on the season and lost to the Cowboys two weeks ago, and barely edged the Panthers last week, failing to cover on both occasions. Kirk Cousins runs hot and cold, so I’m not sold on him shredding a weak Jags defense. If we take a look at the NFL odds being dealt at some of the best online sportsbooks, we can see that the Jags are getting 10 to 10 ½ points. Sounds like way too many to me, grab the live dog here.
Free NFL Pick: Jaguars +10 ½ (-118) at BookMaker for 3 units (visit our BookMaker Review)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 6, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
The Raiders gave the Chiefs all they could handle a few weeks ago but ultimately bowed, 35-31. Last week they were visibly deflated because they were never within shouting distance of the Falcons in a 43-6 thrashing. Two consecutive losses, one good, one terrible. Which team shows up this week?
Well, I believe that Derek Carr and the Raiders' offense will have it much easier against Gang Green than they did last week when they were completely out of sync against the Falcons. But the thing is, Sam Darnold is rumored to get a healthy offensive line this week and have all of his weapons at his disposal.
Perhaps I am more bullish on Darnold than most, but the boys over at BetOnline are dealing the home team at +9, which sounds like a bargain to me. However, let’s not forget they’re still the Jets, so let’s be cautious and bet this game for the minimum.
Free NFL Pick: Jets +9 (-125) at BetOnline for 1 unit
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, December 6, 2020 - 1:00 PM ET at Lambeau Field
As you know, I lamented my recent penchant for backing favorites, thus, it is no coincidence that my first two picks this week were both substantial underdogs. However, this big home favorite looks too good to pass up. Can you imagine how badly Aaron Rodgers will carve up the Eagles’ secondary? It’s going to be criminal.
Plus, with the way Carson Wentz is playing for the Eagles, I can’t see him matching Rodgers offensively. He is dazed and confused out there, and his protection, or lack thereof, is not doing him any favors. Let’s not overthink it, let’s bet it. Lay the lumber and back the Pack in this one at the best betting sites.
Free NFL Pick: Packers -8 (-108) at Heritage Sports for 4 units (Visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (4-8, -4.80 units)
Let’s give the Woodman a little credit. Two weeks ago, he advised a square play with the Dolphins laying -3 ½ at Mile High, and the Fish got hooked in a 20-13 loss to the Broncos. Yet, he remained bloodied but unbowed when he went right back to the poison well of Week 11 and backed the Fish again, only this time they were installed as seven-point favorites over the woeful Jets. And guess what? That well-turned from toxic waste to crystal clear Evian, as the Dolphins pounded out a workmanlike 20-3 victory, and the Woodman finally cashed to improve his record to 4-8 ATS.
Okay, so the Woodman has gone from the penthouse in previous years to the outhouse this year, but he says he’s got another winner coming in the form of the New York Giants +10 against the Seahawks in Seattle. According to our man, Big Blue will hang and bang with the Hawks just enough to cover the number at Bovada. Sounds good to me, how ‘bout you?
Woodman’s Pick: Giants +10 (-110) at Bovada
The post Swinger’s Week 13 NFL Picks appeared first on Picks.
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