We’ve got an NFC West showdown as the Los Angeles Rams head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals in a must win game for both teams. Arizona should have won against New England and will be looking to bounce back against the Rams but the question for us is; can the Cards cover in this spot?
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, December 06, 2020 – 04:05 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Arizona Needs this Game to Make Playoffs
The Arizona Cardinals lost a game to the New England Patriots this past weekend which puts them in a tough spot. In a division as competitive as the NFC West, losing games like that will cost you a spot in the playoffs. I’m not sure who the worst team in the division is and that's because everyone has shown the ability to beat each other, including the division leading Seahawks. For that reason, this is a must win game for the Cards if they have any hopes of making an appearance in the playoffs.
The problem with this theory is that every game in this division is a must win and the Rams are the better team of the two, which is reflected on the NFL odds. I say that based on a few factors but can simplify it by asking one basic question; what does Arizona do better than Los Angeles? I think Kyler Murray is a better player than Jared Goff but even that gap is marginal for now. Murray will continue to develop and separate himself from Goff in my opinion but the mistakes are still there and he is still in the learning phase of his career. Outside of the quarterbacks, the Rams are just better, especially on defense.
This line opened at a Pick'Em which to me is way short of the correct number. On the SBR odds page, the line now sits at Rams -3 at most of the top online sportsbooks which seems about right. If it moved up to 3.5, I might look towards Arizona as a home dog but I just don't see the Rams letting this one get away. The key factor is the fact that Los Angeles has already lost to San Francisco, who are last in the division, twice already. They've already beaten division leaders Seattle once so the two games they have against Arizona become so much more important. I'm taking the Rams -3 (+100) at Bovada.
Over Is the Play Here Because of Arizona
My initial lean was to the Under here because the Rams defense is playing at a very high level. What made me change my mind is the speed at which Arizona plays the game. Their up tempo offense means more plays for both teams than the average NFL game. I also think that Sean McVay knows that anything less than 24-28 points isn't enough to feel comfortable against a team that never stops attacking.
Also, the other reason I like the over is that the Arizona defense is simply not good. I have a lot of confidence in Sean McVay's ability to come up with a game plan to exploit all of Arizona's defensive weaknesses, of which there are several. Of all the teams with playoff aspirations, this Cards defense to me is by far the worst and I see this game going over the total of 48.5 which is where it is still sitting after opening at 48 earlier this week.
NFL Parlay:
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