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NL Central Offseason Odds, Needs, Targets, Outlooks & Values

November 11, 2020
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In his rookie managerial season, former Cubs backstop David Ross took the team (and many of his former teammates) to the top of the NL Central, winning the division by three games over the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds.

The Cubs were subsequently swept by the Marlins in the Wild Card round, however, while none of the three teams the Central sent to the postseason survived the Wild Card round.

That’s not to say the division wasn’t competitive. The Central was the only division in the NL to sport three teams over the .500 mark and one of three in baseball, joining the AL East and Central, while they were the only division in baseball to send four teams to the expanded postseason.

That said, changes could be on the horizon for the reigning division champs after another postseason disappointment while they haven’t made any playoff noise since ending their 108-year World Series drought in 2016.

Whether the constant Kris Bryant trade rumors transpire into action is to be determined, but with both he and Javier Baez scheduled for free agency after the season, the left side of the Cubs infield could be in for a makeover.

Nonetheless, let’s check in on the whole division as we look into some NL Central offseason odds, needs, free agent targets, season outlooks and value ratings for their 2021 futures!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Chicago Cubs

  • Last Season: 34-26 (1st in NL Central)
  • Playoffs: Lost Wild Card vs. Marlins (2-0)
  • 2021 World Series Odds: +3300
  • 2021 National League Odds: +1600

Offseason Needs

Starting Pitching

Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish and teammate Kyle Hendricks were two of the better pitchers in the National League last season, so why the starting pitching need?

The club lost Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana to free agency, a year after Cole Hamels hit the open market as well. Alec Mills is remembered for his no-hitter over the Brewers on September 13, but he also accumulated just 0.2 fWAR with a pedestrian 6.64 K/9 in his 62.1 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.44 FIP ball on the season.

They’re also essentially without a fifth starter with right-hander Colin Rea projected for that spot, but Rea owns a career 4.79 ERA with a 7.04 K/9 in 148.1 innings and has thrown all of 14 innings of 5.79 ERA ball since 2016, so having Rea fill that spot for a contender is a risky proposition, to put it mildly.

The team also has youngster Adbert Alzolay in for heavy work out of the rotation, and despite nice results in his 21.1 innings of work between the rotation and bullpen last season, the 25-year-old has serious command issues and will not be relied upon for a full starters workload in 2021.

Free Agent Targets

Starting Pitching

One thing we need to keep in mind with the Cubs is that they haven’t been eager to add payroll of late. Contrarily, they have made an effort to cut payroll – hence the Bryant rumors – as they added minimum-cost depth last offseason with additions such as Jason Kipnis and Jeremy Jeffress being the highlights of their winter.

The Cubs currently have $150,485,000 on the books for the 2021 season, the third-highest current payroll in the league behind the powerhouse Dodgers and Yankees. While it doesn’t appear they’re going to re-sign Bryant or Baez – and have their expensive final trip through arbitration off the books for the 2022 season – I don’t see the Cubs going out and shopping at the top of any free-agent lists this offseason.

Rather, low-cost additions will be had here. I don’t see them in reclamation project territory as they intend to contend in 2021, but cheap veteran should be the target here.

That type of rotation help could very well include a reunion with Lester, who is open to the idea. It could also include the likes of long-time Cardinal Adam Wainwright, Rick Porcello, Mike Fiers or Matt Shoemaker. They could also look into reunions with the likes of Brett Anderson, Jeff Samardzija, Quintana, or Jake Arrieta. None of these vets are going to break the bank. Not in this economy.

I expect them to get help, but I don’t see front-page newspaper additions on the north side this winter.

Outlook

Just one need for a team in transition? That’s exactly the point.

Much of the Cubs’ offseason is going to focus on the trade market. They’ll see what’s out there for Bryant, Baez and even catcher Willson Contreras, to be sure. Should nothing come to fruition on the trade front, I would expect low-key additions and another run for it with this core in 2021.

After all, they did win the division and played at a 92-70 pace last season. They lost bullpen pieces such as Andrew Chafin and Jeffress to free agency, but keep in mind this Cubs bullpen ranked second with a 2.96 ERA in the month of September. Aside from a disastrous first week or two to the 2020 season, this Cubs bullpen was very good.

Craig Kimbrel found his game and looks the part of a big bounce back arm in 2021. Roman Wick, Ryan Tepera, Duane Underwood Jr. and Kyle Ryan are fairly reliable themselves. As the other 29 teams will do, the Cubs will add bullpen help, but I reserve that “need” for teams that really need their bullpen game to step up if they are to contend. The Cubs can contend with this group, especially if they add reliability to the back end of their rotation.

As it stands today, I don’t see why this Cubs group can’t repeat as NL Central champs. Are any of the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers or Pirates noticeably better? Not in my opinion.

Keep in mind that at this time last year, the Cubs were +2500 to win the World Series, with almost the same group.

We’ll see how the trade market develops in the coming months, but for now, I’m a fan of these Cubs futures if the Bryant, Baez, Contreras trio remains intact for one last hurrah.

Futures Value Rating: 7/10

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Last Season: 30-28 (2nd in NL Central)
  • Playoffs: Lost Wild Card vs. Padres (2-1)
  • 2021 World Series Odds: +3300
  • National League Odds: +1600

Offseason Needs

Catcher

Long-time Cardinals backstop and nine-time Gold Glove winner Yadier Molina is now a free agent, leaving a gaping hole behind the dish in St. Louis. The nine-time All-Star is said to be seeking a multi-year deal on the open market, but whether that comes to fruition with fiscal responsibility being practised almost across the board remains to be seen.

One way or the other, the Cardinals needs to find a solution behind the dish.

As it stands right now, the work behind the plate is to be split between Andrew Knizner and Julio Rodriguez. Knizner has hit well in the minors and the 25-year-old is excellent in controlling the run game, but he’s not yet ready for full-time duty while Rodriguez is just 23 himself, and despite also controlling the game well in the minors, needs far more seasoning with just 47 plate appearances above the High-A level to this point.

Knizner is a fine backup at this point, but the Cardinals need a starting catcher moving forward.

Second/Third Base

The Cardinals declined Kolten Wong’s 2021 option, leaving the 2020 Gold Glove winner as a free agent for the time being. While they could always circle back on Wong at a cheaper rate, the team has Tommy Edman penciled in as their starting second baseman at this point.

And honestly, that would probably work fine. The only problem is that it would push Matt Carpenter back into full-time duty at third and while FanGraphs had him with a passable 0 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at the hot corner in 2020, Statcast placed him in the league’s 20th percentile in outs above average (OAA). Add in that the now 34-year-old has seen a dramatic dip in offensive production since a monster 2018 season and Carpenter is likely no longer suited for everyday duty, but rather could take reps at third, first and DH against right-handed pitching.

So, it would appear the team could be in the market for help at second or third. Edman played elite defense at both spots in 2020, with FanGraphs giving him 1 DRS and a 12.7 UZR/150 in 52 innings at second and 2 DRS at third. Heck, he even logged 96 innings at shortstop where he posted 3 DRS and a 6.2 UZR/150. Add it up and Statcast placed him in the league’s 94th percentile in OAA.

Paul DeJong’s defense ranked in the 2nd percentile in OAA over at Statcast, and while FanGraphs loved his defense up until 2020, the best bet is for the 27-year-old to remain the team’s everyday shortstop while the club explores help at second or third.

Free Agent Targets

Catcher

Of course, the goal is to retain Molina and have him finish his sure-fire Hall of Fame career where it began. Things don’t always work out that way, however, and St. Louis isn’t the only team in need of catching help as the Mets, Phillies and Rays immediately come to mind with others certainly in that mix as well.

That said, don’t expect the Cardinals to dive into the J.T. Realmuto sweepstakes. They rarely, if ever, out-bid anybody on the free-agent market and I would expect the Mets and Phillies to go toe-to-toe for his services this winter with the Mets appearing to have a monster financial advantage over much of the league with the sale of the team to new owner Steve Cohen, who wasn’t on the wrong end of baseball’s financial losses in 2020.

If Realmuto and Molina are 1-2 on the catching market right now, then N0.3 is former Tiger and White Sock James McCann who is coming off a pair of fine seasons in Chicago. The team could also look into a left-handed bat to platoon with the right-handed-hitting Knizner, and that market includes Alex Avila and Jason Castro. As a last resort, a reunion with Matt Wieters is always a possibility after he spent the last two seasons with the organization behind Molina.

Second/Third Base

Edman’s defensive versatility and premium defense at three infield positions could come in handy this offseason.

If the Cardinals were to look into the third base market, they’ll find… not a whole lot. Justin Turner is the lone every-day option available on the open market, with names such as Eric Sogard and Todd Frazier coming in behind him. One wild card of sorts could be former D-back and Athletic Jake Lamb who posted an .882 OPS in 45 at-bats with the A’s after they brought him in off waivers from the D-backs midway through the 2020 season. He would strictly start against right-handed pitching, however, and his defense hasn’t been frowned upon of late.

Barring a trade for a third baseman, the more logical spot to upgrade is at second where Kong could theoretically return. However, there’s also the 2020 AL Gold Glove winner Cesar Hernandez available as he rebounded with the bat as well atop the Indians’ lineup last season. The team could also look into Tommy La Stella or Jonathan Schoop – the latter of whom mashed with the Tigers in 2020 while also finishing as a Gold Glove finalist at the keystone.

Of course, this is all assuming DJ LeMahieu is priced out of their market – which he likely is – but second base certainly seems like the better position to target on the open market this winter.

Outlook

I don’t have the Cardinals addressing any pitching needs here – and likely all teams, they will in some form – but the current depth charts in the rotation and bullpen look impressive.

The rotation should get both Carlos Martinez and Miles Mikolas back, and when they’re healthy those have been a pair of productive arms for this Cardinals team. Add in ace Jack Flaherty, Kwang-Hyun Kim and his 3.88 FIP from last season and it appears the top is set in the top four with the likes of Austin Gomber and Daniel Ponce de Leon sharing reps as the fifth and sixth starters. Depth additions could come, but the rotation is not a glaring need.

Nor is the bullpen. The quintet of Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes, Andrew Miller, Jordan Hicks and Genesis Cabrera is a group chock-full of electricity. Hicks had a setback from his Tommy John rehab before opting out of the 2020 season, but should be good to go for the 2021 season, potentially with some limitations.

Nonetheless, when you’re top five is that good, there isn’t a major need there. There are four arms in that group capable of closing games while all can pitch in high-leverage situations. The team will add depth, but the bullpen is not a glaring need, either.

As usual, the Cardinals should be competitive. The biggest issue is either bringing back Molina or finding some sort of viable catching option to replace him. Knizner is loaded with upside, but a veteran platoon partner would be required if Molina isn’t retained.

The offense is set in terms of what their everyday lineup should look like, and it’s not going to be the best offense around. There’s plenty of capable bats and their middling 2020 results should be taken with a grain of salt given the plethora of double-headers the team was forced into playing.

I’m more on the pitching side here as we could be looking at perhaps the most underrated pitching staffs in baseball. The Cards aren’t flat-out better than the Cubs, but with identical odds for the 2021 World Series and National League Pennant, I’m seeing identical value here, although I’d like to see what they do at the catching position before I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is.

Futures Value Rating: 7/10

Cincinnati Reds

  • Last Season: 31-29 (3rd in NL Central)
  • Playoffs: Lost Wild Card vs. Braves (2-0)
  • 2021 World Series Odds: +1800
  • 2021 National League Odds: +1000

Offseason Needs

Shortstop

Freddy Galvis is a free agent after he spent the last season and change with the Reds, and his services will be in demand given his quality work with the glove, pop at the plate, speed on the bases and affordability.

As it stands right now, the job is that of Jose Garcia’s, a 22-year-old Reds prospect that appeared in 24 games last season, but struggled mightily at the plate, hitting .194 with a 1.5% walk rate, 38.2% strikeout rate, .400 OPS and -0.6 fWAR.

You can’t blame the kid as he hadn’t logged a single plate appearance above the High-A level prior to 2020, and he’s surely in for far more seasoning in the minors (hopefully) in 2021.

The Reds simply do not have a capable shortstop on the roster at the moment, but there’s a good bet they will before spring training kicks off – again, hopefully – in February.

Starting Pitching

It’s always possible the Reds are able to retain Trevor Bauer – the top pitcher on the free-agent market – but it’s fair to say they’ll face some stiff competition in that battle, and this is a team that handed out a pair of $64M contracts last winter to Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos.

With Bauer gone for the time being, the Reds still have two elite starters to front the rotation in Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo, however the bottom three of Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley and former-starter-turned-reliever-turned starter Michael Lorenzen don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Former fifth starter Anthony DeSclafani is also a free agent.

Losing Bauer would be a big deal. Whether you like him or hate him, I’d be shocked if he didn’t win the 2020 NL Cy Young and his dominant five-start stretch pitched the Reds into the postseason before he gave his team every change to win Game 1 of the Wild Card round against the Braves with 7.2 innings of shutout ball, allowing two hits and no walks against 12 strikeouts over the best overall offense in baseball.

While they’re strong at the top, losing one head of the three-headed monster – along with DeSclafani – has the Reds facing some rotation needs for 2021.

Free Agent Targets

Shortstop

In short, there are four MLB free agent targets and a potential Korean target as well. The team could look to bring back Galvis or take a run at one of Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons. They could also look into 25-year-old Ha-Seong Kim who has posted monster numbers in the KBO over the last two season, most recently hitting 30 homers, stealing 23 bases, scoring 111 runs, driving in 109 and posting a .218 ISO, .920 OPS, .411 wOBA and 141 wRC+ a season ago.

For good measure, his 12.1% walk rate was above his 10.9% K-rate.

The Reds will face stiff competition for his services as well. Teams with shortstop needs could also find a one-year stop-gap before exploring the likes of Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Baez next winter with all five scheduled to hit the open market after the 2021 season. Given the Indians’ intent to trade their all-world shortstop Lindor prior to the 2021 season, the Reds could also explore a Lindor trade/extension to solve their shortstop needs for the long haul with one of the best in the business.

The shortstop market is an interesting one moving forward, but the Reds need to satisfy that need perhaps more than any other team in baseball.

Starting Pitching

They’ll work to bring Bauer back into the mix, but your odds never improve once 29 other teams have the opportunity to negotiate with the right-hander.

If they can’t retain Bauer, expect the team to go bargain hunting. After all, that’s what this year’s free agent market is going to be about. There’s already a wealth of free agent pitching options on the table, and plenty more will arrive come the December 2 non-tender deadline, especially this year with tightened financials across the league.

For now, they could look into the likes of James Paxton, Julio Teheran, Taijuan Walker, Porcello, Lester, Anderson, Hamels, Shoemaker and Fiers, among others. If they are really looking for bargain options or even reclamation projects, they could look at Gio Gonzalez, Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer and Garrett Richards.

It’s obvious who the big boys are at the top with Marcus Stroman and Bauer the clear-cut top two options, but for teams that are looking for 4th/5th rotation options, the list is clearly quite long, but not devoid of quality.

Outlook

It’s a little bit difficult to know what to make of this Reds team.

In 2019, they got elite pitching from both their starters and bullpen, but their offense fell apart. They addressed the offensive needs with Moustakas, Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama last winter, but bad luck was a major factor in the Reds ranking 17th with a .312 wOBA. They hit for plenty of power with a sixth-ranked .191 ISO, but despite Statcast telling us they tied for 13th with a 36.9% hard-hit rate, they finished dead last by a mile with a .245 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Just how unlucky was that BABIP? It was the second-lowest mark since 1950. Only the 1968 Yankees and their .241 mark have posted a lower BABIP than the 2020 Reds over the last 70 years. Ya, that’s pretty unlucky.

So, let’s cut the offense some slack. By all accounts, this offense was far better than their 17th-ranked .wOBA tells us they were, and save for Galvis, the offense looks identical from a personnel standpoint heading into next season.

If they don’t add depth to the rotation, it’s not going to kill them. After all, Mahle, Miley and Lorenzen are pretty much depth pieces themselves, but I’d at least like to see them try and add a No.3 type starter to the mix, especially with Lorenzen not having started regularly since his rookie 2015 season. He’s made just five starts since.

Lorenzen could also split time between the rotation and bullpen. the Reds bullpen cost them games early in 2020, but posted a fourth-ranked 3.37 ERA in September and finished 17th with a 4.53 bullpen ERA in 2020. They’ll add to that group, but the core six combined both proven veterans and high-upside youth in closer Raisel Iglesias, setup man Archie Bradley, nasty southpaw Amir Garrett and a trio of high-upside right-handers in Lucas Sims, Robert Stephenson and Tejay Antone.

I promise you the Reds have plenty of confidence in that group. While that doesn’t rule out a significant or depth addition, I don’t see this area as a glaring need, especially a clear-cut priority No.1 at shortstop.

I see the Reds competing with the Cubs and Cardinals for NL Central supremacy with a significant bounce back from their offense very much in the cards. That said, their odds come in quite a bit shorter and given the loss of Bauer in that rotation, I’m not seeing quite as much value with the Red Legs.

Futures Value Rating: 6.5/10

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Last Season: 29-31 (4th in NL Central)
  • Playoffs: Lost Wild Card vs. Dodgers
  • 2021 World Series Odds: +5000
  • 2021 National League Odds: +2500

Offseason Needs

Starting Pitching

Corbin Burnes turned in one of the better pitching performances in baseball last season before he got hurt late in the regular season which in turn was a big blow at upsetting the Dodgers in the Wild Card round.

With Burnes’ emergence as an elite starter and Brandon Woodruff’s status as the team’s ace well intact, the Brewers are set at the top of the rotation, especially with No.3 Josh Lindblom set for positive regression after his 5.16 ERA was accompanied by a 3.88 FIP/4.24 xFIP with a 4.09 SIERA as well.

That appears to be a solid top three, and Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are penciled in at 4/5. With Freddy Peralta capable of making starts as well, the Brewers could legitimately go into the season with those six names and feel okay about it and monitor the situation as it moves along.

That said, despite getting Lorenzo Cain back after he opted out of the 2020 season, this Brewers offense isn’t a sure bet to improve on their .307 wOBA last season that tied the Rockies for 22nd. They also tied for 26th with a .298 mark versus righties and struck out a ton in the process, and Cain isn’t going to help their work against right-handers very much.

The moral of the story? The Brewers’ pitching needs to be really good in 2021, and for the most part, it was in 2020, but that still netted them a below .500 record and a -17 run differential in the shortened 60-game season. They played at a 78-84 pace in 2020 but snuck in over the Giants due to a tie-breaker for the final Wild Card spot in the NL.

This is also a rotation that lost the steady presence of Brett Anderson last season, so they could use a reliable option for the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation.

Free Agent Targets

Starting Pitching

Like with the Reds, I expect the Brewers to hunt at the lower levels of the free agent pitching market. That would include many of the same names from the section above, and I wouldn’t rule out Anderson as a possibility to return given the 4.21 ERA, 1.91 BB/9 and 57.7% ground-ball rate he provided them in 2020.

That doesn’t necessarily rule them out for the second tier of starting pitching options, a group that includes Jake Odorizzi, Masahiro Tanaka, Paxton, Porcello or Quintana. That assumes they won’t shock the world with a Bauer/Stroman/Charlie Morton signing.

If the Brewers need to hang their hat on anything, it has to be their pitching and the starting group could use some consistency and depth for what we hope will be a full, 162-game 2021 campaign.

Outlook

I mentioned an expected weak offense once again, so why no needs on that front?

I mean, there could be, but what are they really going to do? The outlook is locked with Christian Yelich, Cain and Avisail Garcia with Ben Gamel to return in a fourth outfielder/DH role.

They added Dan Vogelbach off waivers at first base, and while it was his third team of the 2020 season, he boasts massive raw power, something the Brewers could use. Additionally, there aren’t any upgrades in free agency.

Keston Hiura is locked at second, and there aren’t enough free-agent options at short for the Brewers to knock still 26-year-old Orlando Arcia off his perch as the starter. Twenty-three-year-old Luis Urias and his elite defense will handle third, and despite a light-hitting bat at the moment, they certainly value him to an extent given they trade for him last winter, and again, the open market is light on third basemen.

Omar Narvaez will do the catching looking for a big rebound with the bat while Many Pina and Jacob Nottingham are behind him.

Add it up and when I look around the depth chart, I just don’t see them doing much at all with their starters at any of the positions. Maybe a platoon partner for the lefty-swinging Vogelbach at first considering they declined the option on long-time Brewer Ryan Braun, who moved to first base last season.

The Brewers’ bullpen is their bread and butter with some of the best FIP, xFIP and fWAR numbers in the league last season and they sport one of the best back-end combos in baseball in 2020 NL Rookie of the Year winner Devin Williams and nasty left-hander Josh Hader. Add in Corey Knebel, Brent Suter, Peralta and Drew Rasmussen and the Brewers’ bullpen should be among the game’s best in 2021.

I assume they’ll be in the mix for a portion of the season, but this is a real difficult division with the Cubs, Cardinals and Reds set to offer stiff competition. I don’t see where they would plan to upgrade on offense, at least in terms of free agents, and while a trade is possible, I think this Brewers offense scuffles again next season despite a likely bounceback from Yelich.

There are just too many obstacles in the NL, so in the spirit of a prevailing offseason trend, I’m going to decline their 2021 futures option.

Futures Value Rating: 4/10

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Last Season: 19-41 (5th in NL Central)
  • Playoffs: Did Not Qualify
  • 2021 World Series Odds: +25000
  • 2021 National League Odds: +15000

Offseason Needs

Left Field

For as bad as the Pirates were on offense last season – they were the worst in baseball – a look around the depth chart doesn’t reveal too many areas where they will plan to upgrade, at least not in the current state of the organization.

Jacob Stallings will catch, Josh Bell is at first, Adam Frazier at second and potential 2021 Rookie of the Year Ke’Bryan Hayes is your third baseman. They could upgrade at shortstop over the light-hitting Erik Gonzalez, but Statcast put his glove work in the league’s 89th percentile in OAA and he hit lefties well in 2020, so in a thin shortstop market I don’t see the Pirates rushing out for a major upgrade there.

Gregory Polanco remains in right field and with Bryan Reynolds as the everyday center fielder, we land in left field where Anthony Alford – a waiver-wire pickup last season – is projected for the most reps with Colin Moran behind him. Moran fits better as a utility infielder to spell Hayes at third, Frazier at second and Bell at first while also getting some reps as the DH.

Alford could get a chance to prove himself, but he’s a journeyman at this point with a FanGraphs projected WAR of -0.4, so perhaps adding an everyday left fielder makes sense to length the lineup and defensive versatility of the club.

Bullpen Help

The Pirates bullpen actually wasn’t all that bad in 2020. They ranked 20th with a 4.62 ERA, but also 13th with a 4.20 FIP. Not great, but certainly could have been worse for the last-place team in the league.

While they got just two innings out of him last season, former closer Keone Kela is a free agent and outside of Richard Rodriguez, Sam Howard and Chris Stratton, there doesn’t appear to be much reliability in a projected bullpen loaded with anonymity.

Free Agent Targets

Left Field

The elder statesmen at the top of the left field list include Michael Brantley and Brett Gardner, both of whom are going to look for a contender in need out outfield or DH help. Of course, attracting free agents to rebuilding clubs such as the Pirates is a difficult task in itself, but at this stage of their careers, they’ll look for a chance to win.

You can rule out Joc Pederson as well as the righty-masher will have many suitors come his way at the age of 29.

A main target could be Jurickson Profar. The former shortstop bounced between left field and second base with the Padres last season while posting a nice 111 wRC+ at the plate and a 1.3 fWAR that matched his mark from all of 2019 with the Oakland A’s. Furthermore, FanGraphs gave him 4 DRS and a 12.2 UZR/150 in left while Statcast pegged him the league’s 50th percentile (league average) in outfielder jump.

Coming off a nice season at the age of 28, Profar could have his fair share of suitors given his defensive versatility, pop at the plate, speed on the bases and former top overall prospect billing. That said, he would make a for a fine upgrade over Alford in left.

Jay Bruce or Ryan Braun could also take over full-time DH duties for the Pirates and give the team some reps in left as well, but Profar should be the main target here.

Bullpen Help

The targets here will be players the Pirates believe have the potential to be flipped at the deadline for future assets and prospects.

So, their search will combine low-cost veteran relievers perhaps looking to rebound and re-establish their value for next offseason and perhaps some arms that are coming off injuries as well.

A pair of former Rockies relievers come to mind in the form of Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw, both former stud relievers who were shelled in their Coors Field tenure. If they were to sign somewhere and pitch well, their past results would help them attract at least some form of prospect in a trade-deadline swap.

Other individuals in similar circumstances would be Matt Harvey, Hector Rondon, Nate Jones, Tony Watson, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, Tommy Kahnle and Jared Hughes.

There’s more options out there, but these would be the types of arms that make sense while we certainly shouldn’t expect anything flashy, especially this offseason from the notoriously small-budget Pirates.

Outlook

Of course, the Pirates were the worst team in baseball last season and it probably won’t get a whole lot better moving forward. Their offense isn’t likely to improve a whole lot and their so-so bullpen isn’t going to receive any flashy upgrades, but rather some rolls of the dice.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is an awfully good-looking prospect and a future organizational pillar, but that’s about it on the offensive front.

Where the surprise could come is in the rotation. I didn’t mention that as a need, although I could see depth additions, as the top five of Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault, Jameson Taillon and Mitch Keller are going to get every opportunity to stick. Add in Chad Kuhl and Jonathan Brubaker – two pitchers who delivered quality results in 2020 – and the Pirates aren’t going to rush out and beat the market to a top or second-tier starter.

They may wait to see where the dominos fall as the offseason moves along and grab a depth option or two late in the offseason to potentially create some training camp battles, but the Pirates certainly won’t be setting any markets this winter and they’ll let their top five arms work out the kinks to start with a pair of solid depth options behind them.

At the end of the day, the Padres futures are, obviously, not worth a look. The second-longest odds to the Pirates’ +15000 NL Pennant odds are the Rockies and Giants at +5000. That’s how far behind the Pirates are, according to the sportsbooks.

Futures Value Rating: 0.5/10

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