One of the saddest parts of last year’s basketball seasons is that we lost an opportunity to declare a winner. However, that is going to change how the upcoming NCAA basketball season plays out. Every team is going to play with a chip on their shoulder after having their previous year cut short abruptly.
One team that is in that camp is the Duke Blue Devils. Duke had to replace two of the best players of college basketball last year, and they had highs and lows. They played without the top-level talent, but they still competed throughout the regular season. They thought that they had a chance to make it to the Final Four, and they will try to make it there this season.
However, is that feasible? NCAAB odds have Duke as +1400 to win a championship, so there is a decent chance that they at least make it there. Let’s see if there is value in any bets regarding the Blue Devils.
Key Duke Departures
The true star for Duke last season was Vernon Carey Jr. The big man led the team in points and rebounds as a true freshman, but he declared for the NBA Draft. He was a matchup nightmare, and he will be tough to replace.
The leader of this team was easily Tre Jones. He decided to return for his sophomore season, so he was one of the few players with experience at Duke. The fact that he played point guard made his leadership matter even more. Jones called it quits after two seasons, so we’ll see what Duke does to replace their point guard.
The other star on last year’s team was Cassius Stanley. He is also declaring for the NBA Draft. It is normal for Duke to lose stars each year. To recover from this loss, they must continue to recruit well. The ideal scenario is to have a mix of upperclassmen and freshman stars, but they at least need the new players to thrive. Let’s see who Duke will be adding to their 2020-21 team.
Key Duke Additions
Coach K recruited the top overall class in 2020, so he can expect an inflow of talent. However, the class is more deep than it is top-heavy. This can be a good thing, but some player needs to step up and be the star. The top addition is Jalen Johnson, a wing player with a ton of upside. He will be the new face of Duke basketball, and he needs to thrive in this new role.
Jeremy Roach will replace Tre Jones at point guard. These two players will lead the Duke offense, but it will take more than just them. DJ Steward and Mark Williams will also be key rotation players. With so few returning players, it will be crucial that these freshmen step up as soon as the college basketball season begins.
Patrick Tape also transferred to Duke from Columbia. While his stats weren’t amazing at Columbia, he presumably expects to play a lot for the Blue Devils. He might even start as an upperclassman.
Coach K has enough talent on the roster, but that hasn’t been enough in the past. The infamous Zion 2018 team failed to even make it to the Final Four. Can this team be different?
Will Duke make it to the Final Four?
There are a few reasons why I don’t think that there is value to bet on Duke right now. For starters, they lack senior leadership. Their last championship team was led by three star freshmen, but Quinn Cook made it all work. Duke does not have that type of player on their current roster.
There are also other great teams in play. As players are choosing to move overseas or consider the NBA G-League, the level of competition between the top teams and the rest of college basketball is diminishing. That loosens the grip that Coach K has had on the ACC and the rest of the country.
Can Duke make it to the Final Four? Absolutely. They can even win a national title. However, I don’t like the value there. Given the unpredictability of March Madness, I would consider betting on them to win the ACC instead. When those odds are available, you will be able to find them here.
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