Minnesota vs. Illinois NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini 

Tuesday, December 15, 2020 – 07:00 PM EST at State Farm Center

The last time we checked in on the Illinois Fighting Illini, we left our cheese hanging out in the wind. Not only did we take the wrong side in their game against Chicago State, we picked them when they were at +36.5 on the NCAAB odds board. The Cougars were up to +42.5 by the time the lines closed. It didn’t matter in the end; Illinois flattened them 97-38. But we should have taken a moment to recommend placing your bet closer to tip-off.

We’re still going to recommend fading Illinois (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) for Tuesday’s Big Ten opener against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-0 SU, 2-3-1 ATS). The No. 13 Illini opened as 8-point home faves at Bovada; that’s too many points to give the undefeated Gophers, even if Richard Pitino’s crew has been feasting on one of the softer non-conference schedules in Division I. Let’s riggidy-roll.

Flyin’ Illini

If honking our first college basketball pick of the season weren’t bad enough, we were watching some more hoops on the Worldwide Leader later that week, and a talking head called Illinois one of the fastest teams in college hoops. That’s pretty much the exact opposite of what we told you in our preview. Did we screw that one up, too? Do freshman guards Adam Miller and Andre Curbelo make that much difference to their offense?

Yes, and somewhat. According to Ken Pomeroy’s advanced stats, Illinois rank No. 91 overall in adjusted tempo, up from No. 288 last year. Okay, still not one of the fastest teams, but this is indeed a different offense for Brad Underwood in his fourth year as head coach; Miller and Curbelo are playing well enough right out of the box, giving Illinois more backcourt depth and better balance in support of junior Ayo Dosunmu and senior Da’Monte Williams. They beat Duke last week as 3-point road dogs. They’re the real deal.

Champaign Supernova

At least, they can be. Illinois also lost to Baylor as 4.5-point underdogs on a neutral court, and then to Missouri as 3-point road faves. With those recent ups and downs factored in, Pomeroy still has the Illini ranked No. 16 (No. 10 offense, No. 32 defense) on his efficiency charts, and just 4.09 points better per 100 possessions than No. 43 Minnesota (No. 39 offense, No. 44 defense). The Gophers are another relatively speedy team at No. 71 overall; we can expect about 73 possessions apiece out of this game, so let’s call it Illinois –3 for a stats-based projection.

Yes, we’re ignoring home-court advantage here. Perhaps we shouldn’t; home teams are 323-302-17 ATS (51.7 percent) as we go to press. But even if we give Illinois a very healthy three points, they’re still two points short of the actual spread. And that, according to our old Sklansky-Malmuth rule of thumb, is just enough potential profit margin to throw a bet at Minnesota for your NCAAB picks. Wait until closer to game time for a better price at the best sportsbooks, though, and may the sphere be with you.

NCAAB Pick: Minnesota +8 (–110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Minnesota +8(-110)

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