One of the NFL’s most intense rivalry’s resumes in the AFC North as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. These games are always physical and we should expect nothing less in this year’s edition. Let’s take a closer look at these two teams and make a parlay for this Sunday.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 1st, 2020 – 1:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
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Ravens Not as Dominant as Last Season
The Baltimore Ravens ran away with the AFC North last year going 14-2 on the season. Pittsburgh finished in second place but only won 8 games and did not make the playoffs after Ben Roethlisberger injured his elbow in Week 2 and missed the rest of the season. He’s back this year and the Steeler have raced out to a 6-0 start.
The Ravens aren’t far behind at 5-1 with their only loss coming at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champion, Kansas City Chiefs. These two teams are different than last year’s editions with Big Ben back at the helm for Pittsburgh and the Ravens offense looking a bit different.
Last season Baltimore re-wrote the record books, averaging 206 rushing yards per game. Even though they lead the league again this year, they are nowhere close to that number at 164.3 per game. Just to illustrate the difference, last year, Baltimore averaged 61.9 more rushing yards per game than the team in second place. This year that number is just 3.6 per game.
Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson did not become a more accurate passer overnight so this team isn’t as imposing as they were last year. In my opinion, this approach makes way more sense for a few reasons. First, you’ve already seen that the running style can be completely shut down in the playoffs.
Second, if the Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl, at some point they will be losing in a playoff game and Jackson will be required to win the game with his arm. They have to get his reps so he can continue to improve that aspect of his game. If he can do that, the Ravens would be unstoppable at that point.
Steelers Need This Division Win
The AFC North has always belonged to the Steelers with the Ravens interrupting their dominance enough to make this a true rivalry. The Ravens have enough Super Bowl rings (two of them) to not have an inferiority complex with the Pittsburgh Steelers who are tied with the Patriots on six titles. That said, Pittsburgh needs this win to put some doubt in Baltimore’s title hopes. The loss to the Chiefs was eye-opening because the Ravens really seemed to have no answers whatsoever.
The Steelers have the type of offense that can put Baltimore in the same type of situation. The line for this game opened at Baltimore -7 on the NFL odds page and has been hammered all the way down to -3.5. That says a lot about the public opinion of the Ravens.
You rarely see the market move that much that fast but anyone that got the Steelers at better than +6 should feel very confident. I’m actually taking the Steelers despite getting the worst part of the number. In order to take the Ravens, I can’t go higher than -3. If it moves down to that, I would just take the Steelers on the moneyline at that point because I do think they are a live dog.
This Could Be a High Scoring Game
When you think Ravens versus Steelers, you think tough physical football with a lot of running. The Ravens defense has certainly been tough this season, only allowing 17.3 points per game which is first in the league. In their last game against the Eagles, the Ravens defense was dominant for most of the game but barely held on in the end. I’m not really sure what to make of that because it’s not the first time we’ve seen a team have a big lead and sort of switch off only to end up hanging on the end.
What I’m way more interested in is what version of Big Ben we’re going to see. Roethlisberger is in a different phase of his career and has been a lot more conservative than he used to be. Honestly, that might not be a bad thing. He doesn’t need to take any more big hits and in the last couple of years, the bad throws have been piling up. The run after the catch or YAC (yards after catch) ability of the players on this team means he doesn’t have to take as many risks. He just needs to get the ball in their hands and not turn it over himself.
The total for the game is 46.5 at most of the top online sportsbooks and I’ll be parlaying that with the Steelers side. I think that the Steelers will try to force the Ravens out of their comfort zone by looking to be aggressive on offense. We know the Ravens love to blitz but Big Ben has been around a while and if he can continue to make the right read, I can see Pittsburgh putting up points in this spot. If the Steelers can get a lead and force Baltimore to play from behind, I can see a 28-24 game which for this division would be considered high scoring.
- Steelers +4 at (-108) with Heritage (visit our Heritage Review)
- Steelers/Ravens Over 46.5 at (-108) with Heritage
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