Stanford vs. Alabama Odds

Stanford and Alabama square off in the nightcap of Monday’s action from the Maui Invitational.

Stanford is looking to win its first Pac-12 title in 16 years, and the Cardinal have the squad to do it. Stanford was picked to finished third in the conference this year, mainly due to the arrival of top-10 recruit Ziaire Williams. The Cardinal also return a lot of their production from last season but will have to deal with the loss of guard Tyrell Terry. However, Stanford is poised to be one of the most talented teams in the Pac-12 with Williams.

Nate Oats brings back a ton of talent to Tuscaloosa in 2020, but the Crimson Tide will have to find a way to replace star point guard Kira Lewis Jr. Alabama is projected to finish in the top half of the SEC due to the fact it boats one of the most talented rosters in the conference. The issue is going to be whether or not the Tide can replicate Lewis’ production.

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Stanford Cardinal

For the first time in over a decade, the Cardinal head into the season with something they haven’t seen: expectations. That happens when a program lands a recruit like Williams.

The incredibly talented freshman small forward should be able to dominate in the Pac-12. The only concerns scouts have about Williams is potentially lacking aggression and a killer instinct. The good news for Williams is he has a fantastic supporting cast around him, including potential Pac-12 Player of the Year Oscar da Silva.

da Silva is one of the best big men in the country, having averaged 15.7 points and 6.4 rebounds last season. It’s crazy to say that Williams might be the second option in Stanford’s offense, but the 6-foot-9 da Silva is that good as a passer and scorer at the five.

The strength of the Cardinal this season is going to be their defense. Last year, Stanford finished the season with the seventh-best defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. With almost all of its roster returning, along with adding a top-five recruit, KenPom has Stanford projected to match its defensive numbers from last season.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Oats’ “pace and space” offense thrived in the SEC last season, as the Tide ranked 37th nationally offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. However, a lot of that was because of Lewis, who is now in the NBA. The guys at Three Man Weave broke down how good Alabama was with and without Lewis on the floor. The discovery was staggering. Its points per possession went from 1.05 with him on the floor to 0.79 with him sitting on the bench.

The Tide bring back only four players from last year’s roster and will have to rely on transfers and freshmen in 2020. Their main contributors — Herb Jones, Jaden Shackelford, John Petty and Alex Reese — are all back for Oats, so it won’t be a totally new-look team.

But the big question is how Alabama will replace Lewis. Villanova transfer and former five-star recruit Jahvon Quinerly will take over the reins at point guard and fits Oats’ offense really well. It will just take some time for him to gel with the rest of the starting five.

The key for Alabama to be successful is playing at its own pace. Last season, the Crimson Tide were the No. 4 team in the country in tempo, according to KenPom. If Alabama can force Stanford into a track meet on Monday, it will have the advantage because Stanford plays at a very average tempo.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a fascinating matchup given how much talent is on the floor. For Stanford to be successful, it will have to slow the pace down and allow da Silva and Williams to dominate on the offensive end. For Alabama, Quinerly has to show he can somewhat replace Lewis’ production. If he can’t do that, Alabama’s offense is going to suffer.

I have Stanford projected as -1.93 favorites on Monday, so I think there’s value on them at +1.5.

Pick: Stanford +1.5 (down to a pick’em).