Bears vs. Packers: NFL Week 12 Sunday Night Football Game Preview

Losers of four straight games, the reeling Chicago Bears look to get back on track when they visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and our NFL pick.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, November 29, 2020 – 08:20 PM EST at Lambeau Field

The Numbers Don't Lie

Time to bring in the quants. Comparing the following projections to the NFL odds will help us make the right choice:

FiveThirtyEight: Packers 69 percent

Equivalent Odds (using SBR’s Odds Converter): -223

The Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them as 5.5-point faves. This leaves a 2-point gap between the projections and the actual odds.

For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Packers -5.07 using his Rating numbers, and –6.44 using his eigenvector analysis. That leaves plenty of room to grab some potential betting value with the Bears +9 at Heritage Sports. As SBR's own Jason Lake says, "You need to know how to read odds when you’re king."

What to Expect From These Two Teams

It may seem that building a case for the Bears to compete against the Packers on the road is hard but the eye test provides reasons for optimism. Darnell Mooney's breakout for example. Mooney has become the most trusted wide receiver behind Allen Robinson. He's actually getting almost as much work as him through the air. Mooney's 33 catches and 10.6 yards per reception are impressive and they should be higher, as Nick Foles has missed him wide open multiple times this season. Mooney could have even better numbers this season and he is the X-factor for the Bears on Sunday. Also keep an eye on Kyle Fuller, who has been playing the best football of his career. Fuller ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing a 60 passer rating and he is third in the league, allowing just 0.67 yards per snap.

The Packers are coming off a tough 34-31 road loss against the Colts in overtime. It was easily their most disappointing setback this season and it raised some red flags. Green Bay had a commanding 28-14 lead at halftime but they made mistake after mistake in the second half to let the Colts back into the game. It's clear that constant errors against a talented team will turn to losses more often than not. While the Colts deserve credit for their adjustments and impressive play on defense, the Packers made it easy for them at times. It wasn't all terrible for the Packers, they did a lot well in the first half but overall, they left too many points on the board. Four turnovers and seven penalties are unacceptable, that can't happen against a team that's desperate for a 'W' like the Bears.

Prediction

Green Bay has to fix their issues and move on. After all, at 7-3 and with the Vikings losing to the Cowboys, they're still in a great position to win the NFC North. The Bears don't know if Foles or Trubisky will be their starting quarterback on Sunday and I can't see them winning this game no matter who is under center. Only the winless Jets are averaging fewer points per game than the Bears but their defense can keep them in this contest and they're coming off a bye week. I can't trust the Packers right now and Darnell Mooney and Kyle Fuller can be difference-makers for the Bears, who are coming off a bye week that should have helped them come up with a decent game plan.

My Pick: Bears +9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Bears +9(-108)

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