The TRUTH: Top 10 RBs in 2024

The hardest part of the fantasy season is when it’s over, but the best fantasy managers are already looking back at the 2024 season to see what we can learn to take into 2025! Andy, Mike, and Jason have already taken a look at the QBs from the last fantasy season, and now they’re ready to move on to get the TRUTH about the RBs from 2024. 

Overall, it was a great fantasy season for the top-end RBs in fantasy. The bread and butter for fantasy football for the longest time hinged on elite RB play but has shifted in recent seasons, but 2024 brought the game back to its roots to a degree. The 2024 season saw the most total rushing fantasy points for RBs since 2011 and the second-most rushing TDs during that span. Conversely, all that rushing production resulted in the fewest receiving yards from RBs since 2011 and the second-fewest RB receptions. Really, the 2024 season was a callback to why RBs matter in the NFL, and it was shown in fantasy!

To hear the Ballers break down the entire list of top-10 RBs from last season, check out the January 23 episode of the podcast!

 

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Before we dive into the top-10 RBs, let’s review how the TRUTH algorithm translates to fantasy performances. Our numbers today will only correlate with Weeks 1-17 (Week 18 disregarded):

• Great Games = 21+ points
• Good Games = 12 – 20 points
• Bust Games = 7 or fewer points
• Missed Games do not count against consistency score

 

1 Saquon Barkley | Eagles

Age: 27.9 |  ADP: 1.12 / RB6

Consistency Rank: 1

1st Half: 5 / 2nd Half: 1

The offseason of the high-end RBs changing teams and getting paid was led off by Saquon Barkley’s move to Philadelphia, and it absolutely paid off for fantasy managers. Barkley put together week-winning performances consistently for fantasy managers with five games of 30+ fantasy points in half-point PPR scoring. There have only been two other RBs since 2007 to match that many explosive RB performances in a single season – David Johnson in 2016 and Todd Gurley in 2018.

Any doubts about the retirement of Jason Kelce having an effect on this offensive line and how that would affect Barkley’s ability to produce for fantasy managers were put to rest, with Barkley seeing 66.2% of his rushing yards coming before contact. That’s the highest rate among RBs with 200+ carries over the last decade. To top it off, Barkley had seven runs of over 40 yards and four runs for more than 60 yards.

Truly a remarkable season!

The conversation has to shift looking ahead for Barkley to exactly how high he’ll be taken in 2025 drafts. Barkley will be 28 when the next fantasy season starts, but with plenty of continuity around him in the Philadelphia offense, there’s no reason to believe that he won’t have every opportunity to be an elite RB for fantasy managers again next season.

 

2 Derrick Henry | Ravens 

Age: 31.0 |  ADP: 2.07 / RB9

Consistency Rank: 4

1st Half: 1 / 2nd Half: 6

It should be no surprise that Derrick Henry comes in as the second-ranked RB in the TRUTH model after a great first season in Baltimore. Henry led one of the best rushing attacks in the league alongside Lamar Jackson and finished as a top-20 RB in all but two weeks of the fantasy season. In fact, Henry’s 6% bust rate this season is the lowest of his career, matching his 2022 season.

Henry was extremely dependable for fantasy managers. Not only did Henry finish the season with the highest yards per carry in the league (5.9), but he also saw a league-high 91% of the Ravens’ carries inside the five-yard line.

When the Ravens were rolling – which was most of the time – Henry was great for fantasy. Henry averaged nearly 10 more fantasy points in games where Baltimore won, and the Ravens were leading or tied on 81% of his rushing attempts. 

Fantasy managers will once again have to look themselves in the mirror and decide if 2025 is the season that they’ll be willing to bet on Henry and be wrong. Henry is committed to Baltimore for another season but will be 31 when the season starts, so there’s a chance he could again be a value for fantasy managers come draft season.

 

3 Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions

Age: 22.8 |  ADP: 1.10 / RB4

Consistency Rank: 3

1st Half: 4 / 2nd Half: 4

From a pair of players at the back end of their careers to a pair just entering their prime, Jahmyr Gibbs finishes third in the model after a fantastic second season in Detroit. Gibbs built on his impressive rookie season, improving in literally every efficient metric from one season to the next.

The explosive plays were a difference maker for Gibbs this season, where he ranked first in the league in explosive rush rate with 10% of his carries going for 15+ yards. Gibbs finished with 25 runs of 15+ yards, the same number as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. The only player over the last two seasons to record a higher explosive rush rate was De’Von Achane from last season.

Gibbs found the end zone plenty in his sophomore season, combining for 20 total TDs on the year on just 302 total touches, so about every 6.6 touches he scored. That’s an increase from his TD rate on every 4.3 touches he had in his rookie season; he was also eased into the offense a bit more in 2023 than he was in 2024. 

While Gibbs is entering the prime years of his career, Ben Johnson’s exit from Detroit as the Offensive Coordinator will create plenty of speculation about whether or not the Lions can continue being one of the offenses fantasy managers covet players from in 2025. With the core of the offense still intact, though, Gibbs should still be viewed as one of the elite RB options for years to come.

 

4 Bijan Robinson | Falcons

Age: 22.9 |  ADP: 1.06 / RB2

Consistency Rank: 2

1st Half: 7 / 2nd Half: 2

The other top-10 pick from the 2023 NFL draft, Bijan Robinson delivered for fantasy managers as well in 2024. After dealing with a frustrating rookie season of Bijan, fantasy managers got to see the RB beast that he could be with a new-look Falcons offense. Robinson was a top-20 RB in all but three games this fantasy season and saw the third-most red zone touches and second-most expected fantasy points per game in the league.

Down the stretch of the season, Bijan was huge for fantasy managers, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in all but one game from Week 6 to the end of the year. To better put that type of production into perspective, the only other RB since 2007 with 17+ fantasy points in 10 of their final 11 games was Christian McCaffrey from 2019, when he lapped the field as the RB1.

Like Gibbs, Bijan should find himself right in the middle of first round RB talk heading into 2025 behind the elite WRs and Saquon. With what feels like some stability (maybe?) at QB with Michael Pennix Jr. taking over under center, Bijan should continue to be the workhorse of the Falcons’ offense and one of the better bets to return on that early draft capital.

 

5 Josh Jacobs | Packers

Age: 26.9 |  ADP: 2.12 / RB11

Consistency Rank: 8

1st Half: 17 / 2nd Half: 5

After an offseason full of questions about what his role would be in his new home with the Packers, Josh Jacobs silenced all the critics with a huge season as the RB5. Jacobs was a true workhorse for Green Bay this season, logging the fourth-most carries and red zone touches on the season, and led the league with 14 TDs inside the ten. It was tough sledding for Jacobs in the Packers’ run game, where he had to really create production with 58% of his yards coming after contact, the highest percentage among RBs in the top-10.

Part of the reason for Jacobs’ success was the Packers leaning back on the running game for their scoring this season, where they saw nearly double the TD production from 2023. That TD production helped propel Jacobs down the stretch of the season, where he finished behind only Saquon in scoring from Weeks 8 through 15.

Jacobs will likely be back in Green Bay next season, and fantasy managers will have to decide whether or not he’s worth what will likely be an early pick in drafts for 2025.

 

6 Kyren Williams | Rams

Age: 24.3 |  ADP: 2.06 / RB8

Consistency Rank: 5

1st Half: 2 / 2nd Half: 12

It feels like Kyren Williams very quietly put together his second consecutive RB6 season, mainly because of how good everyone in front of him was this season. Still, Williams was a huge fantasy asset! Kyren led the NFL in red zone touches (79), percentage of the team rushing attempts inside the red zone (74%), and rushing TDs inside the five (14). Being a part of a Sean McVay offense has its perks, and Williams has been one of the more consistent threats to get into the end zone on a weekly basis over the last two seasons, scoring 31 total TDs in 28 games played – behind only Jahmyr Gibbs over that stretch.

There should be some concerns for fantasy managers, though, with the efficiency from Williams this season. Among 46 qualifying RBs with 100+ carries, Kyren finished 44th in explosive rush rate with just 1.9% of carries going for 15+ yards. Williams was also 45th in fumbles and 34th in yards per carry. In fact, Kyren’s 4.1 yards per carry this season ranks 37th out of the 39 RBs over the last decade with 1200+ rushing yards.

Williams will be entering the final season of his rookie contract in 2025, so fantasy managers will find out a lot about what the Rams’ long-term plans may be for him going forward before the 2025 season starts.

 

 

7 De’Von Achane | Dolphins

Age: 23.2 |  ADP: 2.11 / RB10

Consistency Rank: 17

1st Half: 27 / 2nd Half: 11

After a pretty rocky start to the season, De’Von Achane’s back-end stretch of the year brings him into the top 10. Achane fell victim to the Tua-less Dolphins offense and only finished inside the top-24 twice from Weeks 1-7, but once Tua returned to the starting lineup, Achane was a top-24 RB in all but two games from Week 8 onward. In fact, with Tua in the lineup, Achane was the RB3 in points per game so his overall ranking could have been even higher with a healthy QB all season.

The superpower for Achane in 2024 was his role in the receiving game for the Dolphins, where he led all RBs in receptions (78) and first-read targets (53). Achane saw a whopping 25% of his targets out of the slot this season, which was part of Jason’s “My Guy” argument way back in August!

Achane was able to cut into Raheem Mostert’s running game workload, though his efficiency did go down from his rookie season in 2023. What should be encouraging for fantasy managers going forward, though, is the large increase Achane saw in the team’s carries inside the five-yard line (22.7% to 70%), where he scored four of his six rushing TDs.

In 2025, fantasy managers will likely again have to give up a premium pick for Achane around the second round of drafts. The question will be, after seeing the fragile state of the Dolphins’ offense, if Tua misses time again, will fantasy managers be willing to risk that kind of draft equity into Achane again?

 

8 James Cook | Bills

Age: 25.2 |  ADP: 4.04 / RB14 

Consistency Rank: 9

1st Half: 13 / 2nd Half: 10

For the second straight season, James Cook turned in a top-12 RB season for fantasy managers. As a part of one of the best rushing offenses in the league, Cook showed his explosiveness with four TDs of over 40+ yards, the same number as Saquon Barkley. Overall, Cook was a TD machine this season, scoring 16 rushing TDs on the year on just 207 carries, which was the highest rushing TD rate in the league at 7.7%.

While that kind of efficiency is great to have in a single season, it isn’t sustainable long term, so it could be a cause for concern moving forward for fantasy managers. In fact, 43% of Cook’s fantasy points came on TDs, which has been a sign for regression in RBs. Over the last six years, there have been nine RBs that finished as top-12 RBs who had at least 38% of their fantasy points come from rushing TDs and all of them saw a decrease in fantasy points per game the following season.

With Cook entering the final season of his rookie contract, a lot may be told about Cook’s future in Buffalo before the 2025 season begins, depending on whether or not the Bills choose to get a deal done early. Even without a new contract, Cook should remain the main RB for Buffalo heading into the 2025 season, but after another great season, his draft price may have fantasy managers considering whether or not he’s worth investing in again for 2025. 

 

9 Alvin Kamara | Saints

Age: 29.4 |  ADP: 5.03 / RB17

Consistency Rank: 6

1st Half: 10 / 2nd Half: 7

The top 10 rounds out with two more elder statesmen, starting with Alvin Kamara. Despite the mess that was the Saints this season, Kamara was able to continue his streak of top-20 RB finishes for the eighth straight season. In fact, this was maybe Kamara’s best season in the TRUTH model, where he posted his lowest bust rate in his career and, yet again, hit above 70% of “Good” games as he has since 2017.

Overall, for a nearly 30-year-old RB, Kamara was awesome, leading all RBs in expected fantasy points per game and target share (19.6%) while being targeted on 31% of his routes run. Unlike James Cook, Kamara wasn’t dependent on getting into the end zone, with just 21% of his fantasy points coming from TDs, mainly due to a stretch from Weeks 7 to 14 where he didn’t score a TD.

While Kamara is under contract for another two seasons with the Saints, age will eventually come calling for him, as it does with all RBs. Luckily, Kamara’s receiving work should keep him relevant for a little longer than the traditional RB, but with New Orleans likely heading towards a rebuild with a new coaching staff coming in, fantasy managers will have to decide how much Kamara can contribute to their rosters before investing any draft capital in him again, but he could still emerge as a value in the RB dead zone as he did in 2024.

 

10 James Conner | Cardinals

Age: 29.7 |  ADP: 5.12 / RB19

Consistency Rank: 13

1st Half: 14 / 2nd Half: 15

Rounding out the top 10 from 2024 is James Conner, who’s coming off his first ever back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Conner was the most consistent piece of an otherwise unpredictable Cardinals offense, playing 16 games for the first time in his career. In those games, Conner finished second in forced missed tackle rate in the league and had a higher yard-after-contact rate than he did last season when he finished as the RB18. The work Conner received in the Arizona offense was elite usage as one of just three RBs this season to average 15+ carries and 3+ receptions per game (Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson).

Moving forward it seems like it could continue to be Conner’s backfield in Arizona for at least another year since he just signed a contract extension last November. As with all RBs that are approaching 30, fantasy managers may be hesitant to continue investing draft capital into an older RB, but that may keep Conner’s draft price lower to continue being a value in the mid-rounds for fantasy managers.