2024 Review Analysis Best Sports Picks Fantasy QBs QB Scoring QBs The TRUTH TRUTH

The TRUTH: Top 10 QB’s in 2024 (Fantasy Football)

January 20, 2025
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Jan 12, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) throws during the second quarter of a NFC wild card playoff against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium

Whether you pulled off a Championship or died trying, the savvy manager knows the fantasy season never ends. The NFL is always evolving, and so are we. There will forever be new data, statistics, analytics, and trends that can help set us up for future success, which is why today, we will find the TRUTH about the top-10 fantasy QBs of the 2024 season.

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To hear the TRUTH about the Top-10 QBs, check out the January 16th episode of the podcast.

Before we dive into our top-10 QBs, let’s review how the TRUTH algorithm translates to fantasy performances. Our numbers today will only correlate with Weeks 1-17, with Week 18 disregarded:

  • Great Games = > 26 points
  • Good Games = 21 – 25 points
  • Meh Games = 16 – 20 points
  • Bust Games = 15 points <
  • Missed Games do not count against consistency score

Quarterbacks Overview

Before we begin, it’s important to note that 45 individual top-12 performances were recorded this season, thanks to unsung heroes like Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Marcus Mariota, and many more. This number has remained relatively steady over the past three years, with 46 in 2023, 45 in 2022, and 49 in 2021. It’s also worth noting that five of the ten names below were either drafted outside of the top-14 or undrafted entirely, once again proving how volatile and unpredictable the QB position can be.

We were fortunate to see a relatively healthy season, as 2024 was a bounce-back for the QB position in many respects. QBs this season:

  • Were tied for the highest completion percentage of all time (65.3%)
  • Held the highest TD rate since 2020 (4.53%)
  • Had the most rush attempts and yards in a single season, and
  • Had the fewest interceptions over the past 15 years

For even more fun facts about the 2024 season, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s 25 QB Statistics from the Season series.

1. Lamar Jackson | Ravens

Age: 28.0 | ADP: 3.12/QB4

17 games – 316/474 for 4,172/41/4 passing and 139/915/4 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 1

1st Half: 1  / 2nd Half: 1

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
38% 81% 6%

Those of you who took the “gamble” on Lamar in the latter half of round three were rewarded with the number one fantasy finish in history at the position. Lamar finished at the top of almost every statistical category in what is quickly shaping up to be possibly his third MVP season. Per PlayerProfiler, Lamar finished:

  • #1 in Fantasy Points per Dropback (.88)
  • #1 in Fantasy Points per Game (25.4)
  • #1 in Passer Rating (120.7)
  • #1 in Passer Rating vs. Zone (122.9)
  • #1 in Yards per Attempt (8.8)
  • #1 in Rushing Yards by a QB (915)
  • #2 (tied) in Passing Touchdowns (41)
  • #5 in Passing Yards (4,172)

In fact, Lamar was so incredible that you could remove all of his rushing stats, and he would still finish as the QB10 on passing prowess alone. To supplement these numbers even more, his four INTs ranked second to only Justin Herbert (three) for QBs who started more than eight games, and he finished as a QB1 in 16 of 17 games this season, marking the most consistent QB season in fantasy history.

There were doubts coming into 2023 that the Ravens could convert Lamar into (more of) a pocket passer, but that notion has certainly been squashed, with credit where credit is due. Head Coach John Harbaugh and Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken have rebuilt this offense around Lamar’s strengths and have firmly planted him as one of the league’s top QBs in almost every statistical category. His rushing abilities and athleticism are still fully on display, but they have successfully reduced the number and severity of hits he is taking and allowed him to thrive as a leader for this Ravens team.

With most of their skill players under contract through 2025 (Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Derrick Henry), Lamar should undoubtedly be a top-two option at the position next year.

2. Josh Allen | Bills

Age: 28.6 | ADP: 2.08 / QB1

17 games – 307/483 for 3,731/28/6 passing and 102/531/12 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 2

1st Half: 6  / 2nd Half: 3

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
31% 63% 25%

For an astonishing fifth straight season, Josh Allen produced a top-two fantasy finish at the QB position. While his passing yards and TDs ranked just fifth of his six (full) NFL seasons, he continues to prove that rushing is a cheat code in fantasy. Even with a breakout season of 16 rushing TDs for James Cook, Allen stayed strong with 32 red zone carries (the second-highest number of his career) and 12 TDs on the ground, tripling Lamar’s rushing TD number and putting him just ten away from breaking Cam Newton‘s rushing TD record next season.

We’ve recently seen a trend with NFL executives, allowing their drama-filled WR1s to leave via trade or free agency and replacing them with a “quantity over quality” mindset. The NFL collectively gasped when the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to Miami, and the Chiefs have done nothing but win Super Bowls since. The fantasy community was also nervous when Stefon Diggs left Buffalo, only to be replaced by a smorgasbord of Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel – but here we are. Heck, even Justin Herbert just snuck his way into QB1 territory with a rookie, second-round slot WR as his number-one target. The point is, while the price of the top WRs continues to skyrocket, these teams are starting to understand that if you have an elite QB – someone who is truly that guy – he can overcome the odds and elevate the players around him.

Like Lamar, Allen has shown no sign of decline in his passing or athleticism. Without a single top-30 fantasy WR or top-10 fantasy TE, he continued his dominant rein with yet another top-two finish, and is firmly planted in the top-two at the position heading into 2025.

3. Joe Burrow | Bengals

Age: 28.1 | ADP: 6.02 / QB7

17 games – 460/652 for 4,918/43/9 passing and 42/201/2 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 5

1st Half: 12  / 2nd Half: 2

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
31% 50% 19%

“Joe Cool” continues to live up to his name and is essentially a lock for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. After losing the 2023 season to a season-ending elbow injury on his throwing arm, there was plenty of reason for concern heading into 2024. But – as is tradition – Burrow started off slow and finished the season on an absolute heater, reclaiming his spot as a top fantasy performer where he has been for every (healthy) year of his career.

From Week 9 on, Burrow was the QB1 in fantasy and a league-winner over the second half of the season. In what I like to refer to as the “perfect storm” (for fantasy), Burrow had a stretch of eight straight weeks with 250+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns in each game – thanks in part to a Swiss cheese defensive unit that ranked near the bottom of the league in every category. Just like Jared Goff in 2023, this combination of elite offense and bottom-dwelling defense has proven fantasy gold, and is a recipe to be on the lookout for in 2025.

At the close of the regular season, Burrow led the league in:

  • Passing TDs (43)
  • Pass Attempts (652)
  • Red Zone Attempts (126)
  • Passing Yards (4,918)
  • Money Throws (25)
  • Adjusted Completion Percentage
  • Expected Fantasy PPG (22.0)
  • QBR (76.7)
  • Dropped Passes (33)

There is no doubt about it. When healthy, this dude is elite. He took the Bengals to a Super Bowl in his second season and has finished as the QB8 (or better) for fantasy in each of his three fully healthy seasons. He is often overlooked due to his lack of rushing output (not to be confused with ability), but continues to produce high-end numbers strictly with his arm.

The Bengals will more than likely lose Tee Higgins (PFF’s 5th-ranked WR in 2024) to free agency this offseason, but Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, and company will all be in Cincinnati for the foreseeable future – and even more importantly, this defense just fired its Defensive Coordinator, and will have a lot of rebuilding to do to to avoid the “perfect storm” once again.

4. Jayden “Scramby” Daniels | Commanders

Age: 24.0 | ADP: 10.04 / QB14

17 games – 331/480 for 3,568/25/9 passing and 148/891/6 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 3

1st Half: 4  / 2nd Half: 4

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
38% 63% 25%

While the dynasty community spent the last two years salivating over the upside of Caleb Williams and Anthony Richardson, it was Jayden Daniels who stole the show this season. From the moment he stepped on the field, Daniels put on an absolute clinic, despite a brand new coaching staff and arguably the worst surrounding core of the three. He was able to elevate Terry McLaurin (WR5) to his first WR1 season (shoutout to our very own Brittney Foxworth, who called this one before the season) and even brought back the ghost of Zach Ertz, who finished as TE8 on the year.

While Daniels was efficient as a passer, he was historic as a rusher, setting the rookie record for yards in a season (891) and adding six TDs on the ground. His 148 rush attempts were the seventh-most of all time for a QB, and he saw the 10th-best rush success rate for a QB in league history. On top of that, he ranked third in QBR (72.4), third in completion percentage vs. zone (75.2%), and fifth in clean pocket completion percentage (71.5%).

The future will depend partially on whether Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury returns to the role, but with the third most cap space in 2025, we can safely expect this team to add help and depth in free agency at both their skill positions and their offensive line. Daniels is already ranked as the QB3 in most dynasty leagues, and when (not if) this team can secure someone like Tee Higgins, or potentially a top WR in the 2025 Draft – then choo-effing-choo, baby. I can hear that hype train from here, and I’d bet my bottom dollar that we’ll see Daniels off the board as the top QB in casual leagues.

5. Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers

Age: 29.7 | ADP: Undrafted

17 games – 407/570 for 4500/41/16 passing and 60/378/3 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 5

1st Half: 2  / 2nd Half: 11

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
31% 56% 19%

If you ever need to make the case for a “late-round QB,” look no further than Baker Mayfield‘s 2024 season. The former-first-overall-pick-turned-undrafted-fantasy-hero continues to defy all odds and make his career resurgence with the QB5 overall finish this season.

Baker was not just good this season; he was fantastic. He became the third player in NFL history with 4,500+ yards, 40+ passing TDs, and a completion percentage higher than 70%, and the fifth QB since 2000 to post a TD rate above 7% on 570+ pass attempts – joining Brady (2007), Brees (2011), Manning (2013) & Mahomes (2018). That’s not a bad list to be on, but it’s important not to forget that Chris Godwin was the WR1 overall before going down to a season-ending ankle injury. Despite losing Godwin (and Evans for a few games as well), Baker was able to continue performing and elevate rookies like Jalen McMillan, who scored seven TDs in his final five games.

Baker’s willingness to scramble, run, and sacrifice his body for the team separated this season from years past. His 378 rushing yards (with three TDs) more than doubled his previous career high of 163, set last year on this same team. It feels like Baker’s rushing ability is still undervalued, as he will never be in the same conversation as the names above, but this does quietly add some value to his name and is worth keeping in mind heading into next season.

I guess we had just seen enough of Baker: 2023 had to be a fluke. He’s been passed around by too many teams. He’s got another new Offensive Coordinator. Mike Evans is 31 years old, and Chris Godwin has underperformed for years. We had all of the excuses, but Baker has clearly found himself a home in Tampa Bay and should certainly be in the conversation for the back half of QBs drafted next season.

6. Jalen Hurts | Eagles

Age: 26.4 | ADP: 3.07 / QB2

15 games – 248/361 for 2903/18/5 passing and 150/630/14 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 4

1st Half: 3  / 2nd Half: 6

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
27% 53% 13%

While Jalen Hurts’ season felt underwhelming from a real-life standpoint, his fantasy output was one of the most efficient seasons of all time. The addition of Saquon Barkley encouraged the Eagles to become a run-first team, providing Hurts with the highest fantasy finish of any QB with less than 375 pass attempts. He averaged just 18 completions on 25.5 pass attempts/game, but his .80 fantasy points per dropback ranked second at the position, behind only Lamar.

As has become the theme on this list, Hurts’ fantasy output was vaulted to the top by his rushing abilities. Somehow, despite Saquon being fantasy’s RB1, Hurts still had 18 carries and 11 TDs from inside the five-yard line. The only player in the league with more TDs inside the five was Kyren Williams, with 12.

A well-rounded team, both offensively and defensively, did not need Hurts to play catch-up or force the ball downfield. Instead, they were able to control the clock and move the ball methodically on their way to a 14-win season. Name fatigue may certainly play a role in Hurts’ ADP next year, which may present opportunity for the savvy player – like you.

The Eagles finished 32nd (last) in pass plays per game and 31st (second to last) in pace of play. Yet, despite having the lowest pass volume, playing at the (second) slowest rate of any team in the league, missing two full games to a concussion, and losing AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert each for 4+ games – Hurts finished as QB6 on the season. This is (tied for) his lowest finish in the past four years and is clearly his fantasy floor. His entire core of skill players will be returning next year, and if there is any dip in his value, he could be a steal at a lower ADP.

7. Jared Goff | Lions

Age: 30.2 | ADP: 10.06 / QB15

17 games – 390/539 for 4629/37/12 – 35/56/0 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 7

1st Half: 11  / 2nd Half: 7

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
19% 44% 38%

For the second straight year, Jared Goff finishes the season as the QB7, yet he still ranks as QB17 on KeepTradeCut. He has been as important as any piece in this historic Lions rebuild and, for the second straight year, has his team in contention for a Super Bowl.

What can this man do to get some respect?

Goff joined a short list of QBs to pass for 4,500+ yards and 35+ TDs, and lead their team to 14 wins, consisting of Dan Marino (1984), Kurt Warner (2001), Tom Brady (2007), Aaron Rodgers (2011) and Patrick Mahomes (2020 & 2022).

Again, this is not a bad list to be on, but also, again, what can this man do to get some respect? Five of these six examples were named league MVP, yet Goff’s name wouldn’t dare be murmured in the conversation this year.

Goff also led the NFL in pass success rate (55%), ranked first in fantasy points per dropback vs. man (.98), and had the highest completion rate vs. man (70.8%) of any QB in the past three years. There is plenty of fear around Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson‘s future with the team, however this entire offense should remain intact next year, including: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and most of their elite offensive line. I can almost guarantee that Goff will not be drafted in the top-12 QBs next season and should be another name to target if you choose to go late-round QB.

8. Sam Darnold | Vikings

Age: 27.6 | ADP: Undrafted

17 games –361/545 for 4319/35/12 – 67/212/1 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 10

1st Half: 14  / 2nd Half: 9

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
6% 44% 25%

As someone who had been holding onto Sam Darnold for years in dynasty leagues, I am very happy to put his name down here. Just like Baker, Darnold was another undrafted, left-for-dead QB who had been tossed around the league for years and was finally given an opportunity to succeed.

Although it ended quickly and on a sour note, Darnold was able to (potentially) revitalize his career in 2024, throwing for 33 TDs and finishing in the top-10 nine out of 17 games. While most will be quick to credit the Vikings skill positions and Head Coach Kevin O’Connell‘s QB-friendly system, it’s important to keep in mind that Darnold is a former top-3 NFL Draft pick and has always had the tools for success, and it’s certainly possible that the bottom-dwelling Jets and Panthers should be more to blame for his career trajectory.

Regardless of who’s to blame, it looked for a moment like Sammy Boy was right on track for a Baker-like contract this offseason, but back-to-back devastating losses to the Lions and Rams had Darnold seeing ghosts again, and leaves us with a wide range of outcomes heading into next year. Of everyone we’ve mentioned on this list so far, Darnold is by far the least likely to end up here next year.

9. Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs

Age: 29.2 | ADP: 3.09 / QB3

16 games – 392/581 for 3,928/26/11 passing and 58/307/2 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 11

1st Half: 24  / 2nd Half: 8

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
13% 25% 38%

I don’t blame you if you’re surprised to see Patrick Mahomes on this list. If you drafted him at his ADP, you’re probably already fuming.

After the additions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason, most analysts (like myself) predicted a return to fantasy glory for Mahomes this season. That was hardly the case, unfortunately, as his 2024 season became arguably the biggest disparity between real-life and fantasy success in recent memory.

Mahomes posted career-lows in passing yards (3,928), yards per attempt (6.8), passing TDs (26), and passing TD rate (4.5%) on his way to a 15-2 record and the number one seed in the AFC. He did not have a top-12 finish until Week 9 and has posted an “F” in our consistency rankings over his last 17 games. There’s a lot of football left to be played in Mahomes’ career, but he already feels like one of the most polarizing players heading into 2025.

10. Bo Nix | Broncos

Age: 24.8 | ADP: Undrafted

17 games – 376/567 for 3775/29/12 passing and  92/430/4 rushing

2024 Consistency Rank: 11 (tied)

1st Half: 12  / 2nd Half: 10

Great Games Good Games Bust Games
13% 38% 38%

Along with Darnold, Bo Nix may arguably be the biggest shocker to make this list. As the fourth QB taken off the board, Nix took a scraggly cast of characters in Denver to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, and put together a top-10 QB fantasy season to boot. His 29 passing TDs were the second most of all time by a rookie, and he crushed his preseason prop number of 18.5. From Week 5 on, Nix was the QB6 overall, averaging 21.9 PPG. His rushing and scrambling abilities helped propel him into fantasy relevance, marking him eighth in rushing yards amongst QBs and first in passing yards from outside the pocket.

While there is plenty of reason for optimism in Denver, there is also still (in my opinion) plenty of room for growth. While Nix ranked second in the league in pass attempts, he also ranked 30th in yards per attempt, with 60% of his passes being less than 10 yards. There may be no better example of this than Marvin Mims, who posted 93% of his receiving yards after the catch this season, per Player Profiler. This team excels when playing “their game” and with a lead, but as we saw from Buffalo this past week, a smart coach will take those short plays away and force you to play uncomfortably. With that said, there seem to be less and less smart coaches these days..

On the flip side, Denver will finally be free from the Russell Wilson contract next year, and with $45 million in cap space, they are well ahead of schedule in their official rebuild. There will undoubtedly be more talent around him, and with another year under his belt, there is equally a case that Nix could vault himself into a long-time fantasy QB1. Regardless of what you believe, Denver clearly has found their QB of the future and it’s hard to argue with the success they’ve already found.

 

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/analysis/the-truth-top-10-qbs-in-2024-fantasy-football/

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