The TRUTH: RBs Part 2 + Late Round Hits

Conference Championship reactions and THE TRUTH on today’s fantasy football podcast! Running Back TRUTH Part 2 including Joe Mixon, Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, and many others! Get a deep dive look at consistency numbers, weekly performances, and 2025 outlooks. Plus, the latest coach hirings and how they impact fantasy football! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for January 28th, 2025.

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Summary:

The Super Bowl Discussion 05:30

“Pack it up, we’re done. I think everyone in the world is always rooting for the underdog; no one was really rooting for the Chiefs this last weekend unless you’re from Kansas City.”

• The hosts express mixed feelings about the upcoming Super Bowl, suggesting that many fans root for the underdog rather than the reigning champions, especially in this season’s context. They acknowledge that while the average fan may be disenchanted with the seemingly repetitive success of the Kansas City Chiefs, they recognize the significance of the Super Bowl matchup. There are elements that build excitement, such as the rematch narrative from prior seasons and the presence of high-caliber teams.

Game Analysis: The Bills and Chiefs 07:00

“Josh Allen has played in three games against the Chiefs in the playoffs. He hasn’t thrown an interception, he hasn’t fumbled the football; he has nine touchdowns, he’s done literally everything you can do.”

• The conversation shifts to the performance of Josh Allen against the Chiefs, highlighting that despite his impressive stats in playoff appearances, he has still been unable to secure a victory. The hosts delve into game-specific details, discussing key plays, strategies, and the challenges faced by the Bills, particularly regarding their play-calling and execution during critical moments in their recent matchups against Kansas City.

Reflection on Teams and Fan Experience 05:12

“I feel so bad for the Bills fans. They root through the bad times and the good times, and they’ve had so many good times that will never, ever result in a championship.”

• The discussion touches on the broader emotional landscape of the NFL fan experience, with a focus on Bills fans who have supported their team through numerous playoff appearances without a Super Bowl victory. The hosts resonate with the idea that while the Chiefs continue to thrive, the Bills’ struggles reflect the sadness of fans rooting for a franchise with a history of near misses.

The Stability of Coaching in the NFL 10:04

“Gruden was a stabilizing force, but that obviously ended in a bad fashion because of things that weren’t really football related.”

• The discussion highlights the impact of coaching stability within NFL teams, noting how previous coaches like Jon Gruden initially provided a sense of continuity but ultimately led to turmoil due to non-football issues.
• The age of head coaches like Pete Carroll, who is 73, is acknowledged as unusual, yet his energy and experience are linked to his success in maintaining winning programs.
• It’s suggested that despite his age, Carroll’s ability to energize teams could be beneficial, especially for a team struggling with dysfunction. The idea is presented that a stable head coach could bridge gaps to future successes.

The Importance of Coaching Decisions 11:27

“This was the one that’s going to most positively impact the locker room and probably be a bridge to a future situation.”

• The choice of hiring specific coaches is crucial, especially when a team has failed to attract candidates they desired.
• The speaker expresses optimism about particular hires due to their potential positive impact on the locker room culture and team dynamics. In contrast to the previous state of chaos, it’s believed that a unifying figure is necessary for rebuilding team identity.
• The conversation mentions the importance of acquiring talent through drafts to create a sound long-term plan, referencing prospects like Shadur Sanders as critical to future team composition.

Evaluating Coaching Dynamics in the Jaguars 13:15

“I wonder if the fact that it seemed like you were coming back and then you secretly go and get another job are they happy for him or are they mad at him?”

• The dynamics surrounding the hiring decisions of offensive coordinator Liam Cohen by the Jaguars demonstrate the complexities of relationships in professional sports.
• The speculation centers on whether players felt betrayed by a colleague who seemed set to remain in one role but left for another opportunity unexpectedly.
• The conversation emphasizes the chaotic environment in the Jaguars organization, hinting at broader issues regarding trust and leadership stability, which may hinder team performance.

==Q&A==

Bobby Slowik Departure and Texans’ Coaching Changes 19:53

“Houston believes they took a step back with CJ Stroud due to predictable play calling and no adjustments.”

• Bobby Slowick, the former offensive coordinator for the Texans, was recently fired following a season where many criticized his play calling. Last year, Slowick had impressive results but lost effectiveness this season, particularly with CJ Stroud, whose performance suffered due to Slowick’s predictable strategies. The Texans made a bold move to remove their offensive coordinator after consecutive playoff appearances, showcasing a commitment to improvement and a desire for thoughtful introspection regarding team performance.

Unsatisfactory Coaching Options for the Saints 21:49

“Joe Brady has elected to remain with Buffalo, opting out of head coaching opportunities.”

• The search for a new head coach for the Saints remains challenging, with Joe Brady deciding to stay with the Buffalo Bills despite interest from other teams. This leaves the Saints with limited options as they evaluate potential candidates, including Cliff Kingsbury and Mike McCarthy. The coaching landscape is looking thinner, thus complicating the hiring process.

Running Back Analysis and Rookie Performance 22:41

“This year wasn’t great for zero RB; the elite running backs performed well.”

• The discussion shifts to running backs, analyzing their performances and fantasy value for the upcoming season. The year had a significant number of successful running backs, challenging the zero RB strategy, with players like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry showing strong potential. Though some late-round picks, such as Chase Brown, proved beneficial, they took time to find their rhythm, making them unreliable for immediate contributions.

Consistency in Fantasy Football: Alvin Kamara and James Connor 25:50

“Alvin Kamara and James Connor emerged as two of the best running back values this season.”

• Within the fantasy football landscape, Alvin Kamara and James Connor were standout values, both drafted in the fifth round but performing as top 12 running backs. While Kamara faced injuries at the end of the season, his consistent receiving work kept his fantasy numbers solid. Despite being 29 years old, Kamara’s ability to catch passes suggests he will continue to hold value in the next season, particularly with a stable quarterback situation. Conversely, James Connor also showcased consistency despite fluctuations throughout the season.

James Conner‘s Performance Analysis 29:42

“James Conner had a couple of disappearing games, which were really frustrating because it never looked like his fault.”

• James Conner‘s consistency ranks were 14th in the first half of the season and 15th in the second half, indicating that he had a mixed performance throughout the year.
• At home, he performed significantly better, scoring an average of six points more and demonstrating a notable 13% increase in great games, with 69% classified as good performances. Conversely, he had a 25% bust rate in his outings.
• There was a comparison made to another running back, Alvin Kamara, who had a stronger track record with 21% great games and only a 7% bust rate. This comparison highlights the struggles Conner faced despite not necessarily being at fault for his poor performances.
• A noteworthy point of frustration for fantasy managers was Week 17, where Conner got hurt on the first play and did not participate further. This specific game could skew his overall performance metrics since it was included in the final statistics.
• Despite concerns regarding his future, Conner has signed a two-year extension with Arizona, which solidifies his role as a key player in the offense.

The Future Outlook for James Conner 30:50

“You can make a strong argument that the way he played down the stretch was incredible, and he should be drafted highly with confidence.”

• Conner’s performance late in the season demonstrated he remains a central figure within the Arizona offense. He is often likened to other successful running backs, but there are concerns regarding his receiving capabilities compared to players like Kamara.
• Injuries and decreased productivity could jeopardize his value; if he loses a step, the expectations for his future performance should be tempered.
• Despite concerns about age and production, analysts believe he could remain a valuable pick in fantasy drafts, suggesting he has the potential for another strong season.
• Conner’s statistics from the last season included over 100 rushing yards in multiple games, eight rushing touchdowns, and one receiving touchdown. However, his receiving production remains limited with only 414 receiving yards.
• Fantasy managers may not see him rise in draft rankings due to his age and the overall lack of excitement surrounding the Arizona franchise.

Chase Brown‘s Breakout Performance 33:40

“Chase Brown was the third most consistent running back in football during the second half of the season.”

• Chase Brown emerged as a significant player, with a consistency rank of 10 and impressive performance metrics, particularly in the second half of the season where he demonstrated great potential.
• His success can be attributed to increased opportunities following a teammate’s injury, which allowed him to become a more central part of the offense.
• Brown had strong performances against various defensive strengths and was effective both at home and on the road, indicating his versatility.
• Going forward, questions arise about how committed the Cincinnati Bengals will be to Brown as their lead running back, especially when considering the potential signing of other players.
• With solid production, Brown is viewed as a strong candidate for future fantasy drafts and an improvement over prior backfield options.

Chuba Hubbard‘s Emerging Talent 37:24

“Chuba Hubbard had an outstanding season, managing impressive statistics despite the Panthers’ overall struggles.”

• Chuba Hubbard finished the season with nearly 1,200 rushing yards and ten touchdowns, showing significant production that counters the Panthers’ weak overall team performance.
• Hubbard showed considerable improvement compared to earlier expectations, as he transformed from being seen as a second-tier backup to a more prominent player by the end of the year.
• His production was further highlighted by the fact he achieved these numbers while playing in one of the least effective offensive systems in the league.
• While his receiving totals were lower than expected, he secured a four-year, $33 million contract, indicating that the organization recognizes his potential moving forward.
• Analysts note that Hubbard could become a valuable option in fantasy drafts as he continues to develop in the league.

Performance of Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks 39:20

“Chuba Hubbard ran as hard as he could and broke a lot of tackles.”

• Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks had pivotal roles on the Carolina Panthers, especially as Hubbard emerged as a key player despite being drafted in the 12th round, which reflects the common underdog narrative in sports.
• Hubbard’s playing style is compared to James Conner’s for Arizona, emphasizing that both players displayed significant effort on every down.
• The discussion reflects on the underestimation of Hubbard’s abilities, suggesting that sometimes a player can exceed expectations despite being overlooked during the draft.
• There is also a recognition that Hubbard’s performance during the second half of the previous season should have been taken more seriously, countering the initial doubts and assumptions about his capabilities.

Lessons on Player Evaluation and Circumstances 39:50

“It’s all very circumstance-specific, and Chuba was just the better player.”

• The narrative surrounding Hubbard pointed towards a predictable outcome based on the team’s poor structure and the presence of new rookies, setting an expectation for diminished performance.
• There is a revelation that player performance can often defy expectations based on external circumstances and preconceived notions, underscoring that past performances should be more closely analyzed rather than dismissed as anomalies.
• The team’s early struggles contributed to the initial assessments of Hubbard’s playtime and effectiveness, but as his snap percentage increased, so did his impact on the field.

Joe Mixon: A Tale of Consistency and Decline 42:40

“Mixon was the number three most consistent running back in the first half of the season.”

• Joe Mixon experienced two contrasting halves of the season, starting strong as a top-performing running back but faltering significantly in the second half due to injury and other factors.
• The discussion points out that despite his drop in consistency, Mixon remained a viable fantasy option during his good stretches but faced considerable challenges as the season progressed, notably when he dealt with injuries that affected his performance.
• An analysis is provided about Mixon’s early success being attributed to his strong performances against weaker defenses, indicating that his struggles in the latter half of the season were exacerbated by opponents and team shifts.

Jonathan Taylor: Potential and Challenges 46:40

“Jonathan Taylor is a tremendous running back.”

• Jonathan Taylor displayed significant promise early in the season but struggled due to injuries and inconsistent offensive play.
• Despite challenges, his talent shines through when given a supportive offensive structure, paralleling his situation with Saquon Barkley‘s to suggest potential future success if circumstances improve.
• The conversation highlights the need for a new contract and a decent supporting cast that allows him to maximize his production, pointing out the declines in his target totals and the impact of the quarterback’s play style on his performance.

Player Comparisons: Jonathan Taylor vs. Joe Mixon 48:49

“In a neutral situation, you’d rather have Jonathan Taylor than Joe Mixon.”

• The discussion centers around the fantasy football value of Jonathan Taylor compared to Joe Mixon. It is highlighted that in a neutral assessment, most would prefer Taylor due to his physical potential to be a top three running back. Taylor’s success with a dual-threat quarterback, such as Anthony Richardson, also indicates his capability to excel in high-pressure situations.
• The uncertainty surrounding quarterbacks in Houston adds to the dynamics, suggesting that Taylor could still outperform other running backs like Mixon regardless of the team context. The potential for a trade, given Taylor’s talent and the Colts’ performance, could also impact his fantasy scoring greatly if he lands on a contending team.

Aaron Jones‘ Inconsistent Production 50:31

“He was a phenomenal NFL player for fantasy purposes, but I’m out.”

• Aaron Jones has shown erratic production throughout his career, with a mix of outstanding and underwhelming performances. His consistency rankings fluctuate, making it difficult for fantasy managers to rely on him as a top-tier running back.
• He had a decent finish as RB15 but was only 21st in consistency rankings, indicating that while he could produce good games, he often disappointed. Factors such as injuries and limited playing time in certain games have hindered his ability to deliver consistently, creating uncertainty about his future and role next season.

Rookie Running Backs: Bucky Irving and Rashad White 53:41

“Bucky Irving started usurping him in the snap count area where he should have.”

• The conversation shifts to rookie running backs Bucky Irving and Rashad White, noting that their snap counts balanced out as the season progressed. By the end, however, Irving began to dominate the backfield due to his explosive play style.
• The discussion suggests that while White may fall into the committee role for the next season, Irving is likely to emerge as the primary back, potentially making him a more valuable fantasy option moving forward.

Jahmyr Gibbs vs. David Montgomery 57:20

“Gibbs is so explosive that it’s fair for anybody watching to want him on the field.”

• Jahmyr Gibbs has demonstrated explosive talent, creating a challenging situation for fantasy managers trying to predict his value versus David Montgomery‘s more consistent but less dynamic game. Gibbs consistently produced points but wasn’t always the standout performer.
• This dual back situation highlights the potential for both players to have relevant roles in fantasy, making it vital for players to adapt their strategies based on changing opportunities within their teams.

Fantasy Football Prospects for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs 58:22

“Will he get into the end zone next year? Yes.”

• David Montgomery is expected to remain a significant contributor in the upcoming fantasy football season, especially considering his ability to find the end zone with 12 touchdowns last year. His track record of 25 touchdowns over the last two years indicates reliability as a fantasy asset.
• Concerns about his previous injuries are deemed irrelevant since he was active and performed well this past year.
• Montgomery’s fantasy ranking could potentially decline, especially as the fantasy landscape shifts with new drafts.

The Impact of Ben Johnson‘s Departure 58:47

“What does the offense look like without that mastermind sequencing your plays?”

• The possible departure of Ben Johnson raises questions about the offensive structure and success for players like Montgomery and Gibbs.
• There is apprehension regarding how the offense may change and whether it can maintain its previous success without Johnson’s innovative play sequencing.
• This uncertainty could influence draft strategies and projections for these players in the upcoming season.

Gibbs as a Versatile Weapon 59:20

“Gibbs is going to be a passing weapon.”

• Jahmyr Gibbs, who has shown potential as a dual-threat option, is projected to become a pivotal part of the offense, particularly in the passing game.
• His ability to fill multiple roles means that he has the potential to capitalize in both receiving and rushing situations but may face challenges with a shifting team dynamic.
• As Montgomery and Gibbs both possess the versatility to be effective in various roles, their value as players will depend significantly on the offensive strategy employed.

Breece Hall‘s Struggles and Future Outlook 01:01:10

“Breece Hall was statistically one of the true busts in fantasy football in 2024.”

• Breece Hall, once drafted as a top running back, has had a disappointing season, with a consistency ranking that dramatically dropped in the second half of the year.
• The overall turmoil within the Jets organization has hindered his performance, leaving uncertainty about his future and the offensive scheme that will be in place as they move forward.
• Despite past struggles, there are lingering hopes that a new offensive coordinator could rejuvenate Hall’s role and impact within the team.

Evaluating Kenneth Walker‘s Performance 01:06:10

“Kenneth Walker gives you some highlights.”

• Kenneth Walker continues to showcase his talent but experiences inconsistency in performance as evidenced by fluctuating yards per carry throughout his career.
• He remains a powerful and elusive runner, currently rated first in forced missed tackles among running backs.
• Concerns abound regarding him being in a timeshare situation, limiting his opportunities to truly shine and hampering his statistics.

Player Performance and Team Challenges 01:08:07

“Their offensive line, per PFF’s ranking, was 31st. Seventy-one percent of his rushing yards came after contact.”

• The discussion pivots around the performance of a specific player, likely a running back, who exhibited remarkable skills despite having a very underperforming offensive line. This player’s ability to gain rushing yards primarily after contact demonstrates both their talent and the challenges posed by the team’s offensive setup.
• The commentary suggests that if the right season occurs, similar to Jonathan Taylor‘s past performance, this player could shine as a top five back, significantly impacting the team’s success.
• On the other hand, there’s a lack of confidence in the current quarterback and head coach, indicating that upcoming changes are imperative for improvement.

Super Bowl Predictions and Controversies 01:09:06

“The heart wants what the heart wants; I wish it was a first down.”

• As the Super Bowl approaches, the conversation shifts to predictions and key game moments that are causing debate. Notably, a controversial first down call that was disputed during a playoff game is discussed. This confusion highlights ongoing tensions and differing opinions on refereeing decisions.
• The mention of social media reactions, particularly a tweet that captured the moment a missed catch was deemed incomplete, underscores the intense scrutiny and passion surrounding football calls.

Celebration Caution in Philadelphia 01:11:34

“Let’s celebrate with dignity and some self-respect as we head into the Super Bowl.”

• The dialogue takes a turn towards the passionate nature of Philadelphia fans, illustrated by the mention of a bizarre celebration that involved firing guns into the sky. The comment reflects a mix of disbelief and concern for public safety during celebrations.
• The desire for a more respectful celebration as they approach the Super Bowl emphasizes the balance between enthusiasm and responsible behavior, advocating for fans to enjoy the moment without risking safety or dignity.