The TRUTH: RBs in 2024 Part 2 (Fantasy Football)

As we head deeper into the fantasy football offseason, now is the time to reflect on our wins and losses from the 2024 fantasy season. What better way to get perspective on exactly what happened with the decisions we made from the previous year than to find out the TRUTH of players now that we are removed from the in-season goggles that we all tend to wear?

Andy, Mike, and Jason are taking a deep dive into each position group to better understand how players helped fantasy rosters in 2024. After tackling the top-10 RBs, the Ballers now turn to maybe a more difficult conversation with RBs that finished outside the top-10 to get the real truth of their seasons.

Outside of the top RBs, there were pretty slim pickings at RB, and if you tried to duplicate the “zero RB” success that many saw in 2023, you likely were disappointed in the results with very few exceptions.

To get a full recap of the top performers in the TRUTH model and see who was the best of the RB position, check out Part I of the RB TRUTH series.

For the Ballers full thoughts on the RB TRUTH outcomes, make sure to listen to the January 28 episode of the podcast!

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Before we dive into the top-10 RBs, let’s review how the TRUTH algorithm translates to fantasy performances. Our numbers today will only correlate with Weeks 1-17 (Week 18 disregarded):

• Great Games = 21+ points
• Good Games = 12 – 20 points
• Bust Games = 7 or fewer points
• Missed Games do not count against the consistency score.

 

11 Chase Brown | Bengals

Age: 24.8 |  ADP: 10.09 / RB41

Consistency Rank: 10

1st Half: 29 / 2nd Half: 3

One of the few late-round RB winners for fantasy managers this season was Chase Brown’s emergence in the Cincinnati offense. Brown didn’t start the season as the main RB, seeing 40% or less of the Bengals offensive snaps through the first four games. Once Moss left the picture due to injury, Brown took full advantage of the opportunity he was given. From Week 9 through the rest of the season, Brown was the RB5 in fantasy, with only Saquon Barkley seeing more total opportunities per game (24.4) during that span. Brown was basically on the field every possible play once he became the lead RB, playing 86% of snaps in his final eight games of the season.

While Brown certainly produced for fantasy managers, there is room for improvement when you look at his efficiency. Among 46 qualifying RBs who saw 100+ carries, Brown finished 33rd in yards after contact per attempt and 26th in forced missed tackles per attempt. Brown did well as a receiver but still could improve on the efficiency there as well, finishing 35th of 67 RBs who ran at least 75 routes in yards per route run.

Looking forward, Brown will be an interesting stock to watch throughout the offseason to gauge his worth in drafts ahead of the 2025 season. Brown was just mentioned as a potential “trade away” candidate on the Dynasty Podcast last week, mainly due to the many avenues that things could go wrong for him before he gets back on the field next season. If the Bengals were to add another RB through the draft for free agency that may threaten the massive workload that made so many fantasy managers happy in 2024, he might not be worth the risk again next season.

 

12 Chuba Hubbard | Panthers

Age: 25.6 |  ADP: 11.11 / RB43

Consistency Rank: 12

1st Half: 17 / 2nd Half: 13

Another late-round value at RB was Chuba Hubbard’s RB13 finish in 2024. Hubbard was probably drafted in most leagues to be a stop-gap early in the season until rookie RB Jonathon Brooks was able to get back on the field. Luckily for Hubbard, Brooks didn’t get back on the field until late in the season, and not before he got himself a nice contract extension from Carolina to secure his future in the offense going forward.

Hubbard was a true workhorse back for the Panthers, finishing 7th among RBs in “weighted opportunities” (considering a target being worth two times more than a carry) per game at the position. From Weeks 3-16, Hubbard was the RB7, averaging 17 fantasy points per game. During that 13-game stretch, Chuba finished as a top-12 RB eight times, matching Kyren Williams’ total on the season. To top it off, the efficiency was there to back up the production for Hubbard. Among the 46 RBs with 100+ carries on the season, Chuba finished 8th in rush success rate, 10th in yards per carry, and 11th in explosive rush rate.

As silly as it sounds, Hubbard might end up being a forgotten hero heading into the 2025 draft season. The Panthers will still likely have to add someone to the RB room this summer, with Jonathon Brooks’ ACL injury likely keeping him out for most, if not all, of the 2025 campaign. If Hubbard gets lost in the shuffle of a Carolina offense that feels like a fantasy graveyard heading into next season, there could still be a mid to late-round value for the RB.

 

13 Joe Mixon | Texans

Age: 28.5 |  ADP: 4.07 / RB15

Consistency Rank: 14

1st Half: 3 / 2nd Half: 19

 

It may be a little surprising to see Joe Mixon this far down the list when you consider he finished as the RB11 on the season, but that’s what the TRUTH model does for us. Mixon was absolute hot lava coming out of the gates this season, averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game which was good enough to make him the RB1 during that stretch. Down the stretch of the season, though, he cooled off, finishing the last month of the season as the RB40 and averaging just six fantasy points per game. 

Overall, Mixon’s workload was elite, tying Kyren Williams for the fifth-most “weighted opportunities” per game and seeing the fourth-most red zone touches in the league. While the workload was there, the efficiency numbers tell a less appealing story. Among the 46 RBs with 100+ carries, Mixon finished 39th in forced missed tackle rate and 41st in success rate on zone runs. Those kinds of numbers could signal an offensive line issue, though he did see the third-most defenders in the box per carry.

Things will look different on the offensive side of the ball for Houston next season, with Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik fired at the end of the season, but Mixon should still be around to run things back with the Texans for at least one more season. For fantasy, Mixon is approaching the RB age cliff that scares many fantasy managers, so it will be a tough decision to make if he remains in the third to fourth round in drafts.

 

14 Jonathan Taylor | Colts

Age: 26.0 |  ADP: 1.12 / RB5

Consistency Rank: 11

1st Half: 6 / 2nd Half: 19

The return to the top-10 RBs has been a long and strange road for Jonathan Taylor. While Taylor finished as the RB9 on the year, it wasn’t easy to get there in an up-and-down Colts offense from 2024. It does help to have an explosion during the fantasy playoffs like Taylor saw, putting up 520 rushing yards in his final three games of the season, the fifth-most rushing yards ever in the final three games of the season. While those massive fantasy days were nice for fantasy managers, they accounted for 38% of his total fantasy points on the year, the highest percentage of any RB from a three-game stretch this season.

If we’re talking about the TRUTH, it’s that fantasy managers should be concerned about Taylor in the long term. In 2024, of the 46 RBs with 100+ carries, Taylor finished 42nd in forced missed tackle rate and 44th in yards after contact per rushing attempt. To make things worse, Taylor’s work in the receiving game has decreased every season he’s played. 

 

 

As a whole, the Colts are in an interesting spot moving forward, mainly due to the lack of development we’ve seen from QB Anthony Richardson. With a potential for year three of Richardson under center, fantasy managers may need to be cautious of Taylor heading into 2025, depending on exactly how high they have to give up a draft pick to get him on their rosters.

 

15 Aaron Jones | Vikings

Age: 30.1 |  ADP: 5.08 / RB18

Consistency Rank: 21

1st Half: 20 / 2nd Half: 17

To be honest, I never saw a season like the one Aaron Jones had coming to reality in 2024. Jones’ move to Minnesota brought him into a lead RB role like he had never seen before – he played the highest percentage of team snaps he’s played in his career and averaged 18.6 opportunities per game. The success that Jones had for fantasy managers came directly from the positive game scripts the Vikings were regularly playing in, with Minnesota leading or tied for 76% of their offensive plays – the highest rate in the league. 

While Jones has always been a solid receiving threat, which helped his fantasy value, his work in the passing game this season was elite. Jones finished with the seventh-most PPR points per game over the last decade for an RB in his eighth season. What’s odd is that six of the top 13 seasons for a player in his eighth season happened in 2024:

 

 

The fantasy value for Jones going forward is a mystery, really. There’s a chance he gets a deal to come back to the Vikings, which might make fantasy managers a little more confident in making him a mid-round pick again in 2025. It’s also likely that, as an RB at 30 years old, he’s forced to make another change, which could only muddy the waters for his fantasy value.

 

16 Bucky Irving | Buccaneers

Age: 22.4 | ADP: Undrafted

Consistency Rank: 16

1st Half: 26 / 2nd Half: 8

The savior of this 2024 rookie RB class was Bucky Irving. While the rookie RB class wasn’t ever thought of as one with league-changing talent, Irving wouldn’t have been many fantasy managers’ bets to be the one that stood out in his first season. Irving had to chip away at the workload Rachaad White was given to start the year but took full advantage of it once he got on the field. From Week 10 to the end of the season, Bucky averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game, seeing 30% of Tampa Bay’s total opportunities (rushing attempts + targets).

Irving wasn’t just a steal for fantasy managers in the box sheet; the efficiency backs up his work. Among the 46 RBs with 100+ carries, Irving finished fifth in yards per carry, seventh in explosive rush rate, and third in forced missed tackles per attempt. Bucky’s 1,500+ scrimmage yards put him in pretty elite company for a rookie RB.

 

 

The biggest question for Irving heading into 2025 will be exactly how high he gets drafted after such a great rookie year. Luckily, a lot of the pieces should stay in place in Tampa Bay, though they’ll be breaking in a new OC. Still, Irving projects like a player due to take an even bigger step forward in his second season and should be worth the early pick fantasy managers will likely have to give up to have him on their roster.

 

17 David Montgomery | Lions

Age: 27.6 |  ADP: 6.03 / RB20

Consistency Rank: 7

1st Half: 9 / 2nd Half: 9

 

 

Perhaps the best RB2 on fantasy rosters comes in next on the list in David Montgomery. The Lions RB has been one of the most consistent RBs since getting to Detroit, with an “A” in the Ballers’ consistency rating over his last 17 games, with 82.4% of his games exceeding 10.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring. Montgomery benefited from seeing 70% of his carries come with Detroit either leading or tied behind the fourth-highest-rated offensive line in the league.

What may be an understated part of Montgomery’s game is the receiving work he’s received. While the perception may be that his teammate Jahmyr Gibbs is the “receiving back” in the duo, Montgomery’s receiving totals were practically the same before his injury in Week 14.

 

Moving forward, it will be tough to bet against Montgomery still being a great asset for fantasy rosters to have as their RB2. With the majority of the offensive pieces returning for Detroit, it will still be an offense that fantasy managers covet having a piece in again in 2025 despite the departure of OC Ben Johnson.

 

18 Breece Hall | Jets

Age: 23.6 |  ADP: 1.09 / RB3

Consistency Rank: 20

1st Half: 16 / 2nd Half: 26

 

 

Maybe the most disappointing name this far down on the list is Breece Hall. There has been plenty of optimism around Hall and the Jets offense over the last two seasons, but it feels like those expectations were never really fulfilled to the level that the fantasy community felt like they could be. The good news is Hall was extremely involved in the Jets offense, but was slightly lower in nearly every statistic from 2023 except for snap percentage.

Despite seeing the third-most targets among RBs, having the second easiest strength of schedule for fantasy RBs, and getting 80% of the Jets’ rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, Hall still only managed an RB17 finish overall which left fantasy managers who took him in the back end of the first round wanting more at the end of the day. 

For 2025, Hall presents one of the hardest decisions for fantasy managers to make. While Hall is still young and clearly a talented player, there is change yet again in New York, and with Aaron Rodgers’ status up in the air, there’s plenty of uncertainty as to what the Jets offense will look like next season. Hall’s draft price will have to dictate what type of risk he is ahead of next season, but unless something major changes in New York, it may be a gamble that doesn’t make sense despite the talent.

 

20 Rachaad White | Buccaneers

Age: 26.0 | ADP: 4.02 / RB13

Consistency Rank: 22

1st Half: 25 / 2nd Half: 16

 

Despite finishing as the RB7 in 2023, Rachaad White was one of the harder investments to make for 2024, and the emergence of Bucky Irving in the Buccaneers offense proved to be the worst-case scenario for fantasy managers who did. White’s great 2023 was based mainly on volume in the Tampa Bay offense, but with Irving eventually taking over the entire RB workload by the end of the season, it’s pretty impressive that White was still able to finish as the RB24 on the year.

The majority of White’s value came mainly in the receiving game, where he scored six TDs, tied for the most among RBs in the league this season with De’Von Achane. The difference between White and Achane, though, is White scored six TDs on just 51 receptions and 393 yards, a full 27 receptions and 199 yards fewer than Achane.

The last three games of the season may have been a sign of things to come for White going forward, which was being relatively uninvolved in the Tampa Bay offense as a whole, averaging just 38% of snaps and six total opportunities to end the season. For the most part, fantasy managers can view White as a handcuff to Irving heading into 2025 unless he gets traded.

 

22 Najee Harris | Steelers

Age: 26.8 |  ADP: 6.09 / RB23

Consistency Rank: 27

1st Half: 21 / 2nd Half: 34

 

Dipping outside the top 20 for a few mentions begins with Najee Harris. Harris registered his four-straight season of 1,000+ rushing yards, becoming the 14th player in NFL history to start a career hitting that mark for four-straight years. During that stretch, Harris leads all RBs in games played (68) and total touches (1,277).

Unfortunately, the efficiency for Harris in the Steelers offense wasn’t great. Among the 46 RBs with 100+ carries, Harris finished 42nd in percentage of runs stuffed at the line of scrimmage and 38th in success rate on zone runs. Harris and Pittsburgh are at a crossroads, with Harris’ fifth-year option declined, making him a free agent heading into the summer. A change of scenery may be in store for the RB, so fantasy managers will have to wait and see where Harris lands before knowing what type of investment they’ll want to make before drafts in 2025.

 

23 J.K. Dobbins | Chargers

Age: 26.1 |  ADP: 11.12 / RB44

Consistency Rank: 19

1st Half: 19 / 2nd Half: 23

 

It was a resurgent season for JK-two legs in Los Angeles in 2024. Being thrust into the Greg Roman offense again for the Chargers benefited Dobbins, where he was the clear lead RB. Despite six top-24 RB finishes in his first 11 games, it felt like Dobbins ran out of steam before the fantasy playoffs, which left fantasy managers wanting more. The efficiency wasn’t great for Dobbins either, finishing 44th of 46 RBs with 100+ carries in percentage of runs stuffed at the line of scrimmage.

With no RB able to take away from Dobbins’ workload when he missed games from Week 13-16, the Chargers are likely to try and add a new name to the RB room this offseason. For Dobbins, a high draft capital addition could spell the end of his fantasy-relevant days sooner than later in Los Angeles.

 

24 Rico Dowdle | Cowboys

Age: 26.6 |  ADP: 13.03 / RB45

Consistency Rank: 29

1st Half: 32 / 2nd Half: 25

 

It may have taken more than half the season, but once Rico Dowdle was given the opportunity in Dallas he was an effective RB2 for fantasy rosters. Fantasy managers who kept the faith with Dowdle were rewarded with seven top-24 RB finishes in his last ten games. From Week 9 to the rest of the season, Dowdle saw 205 opportunities, behind only Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, and Bijan Robinson during that stretch. The efficiency backs up Dowdle’s late-season success, with the RB finishing eighth in RB success rate, sixth in rush success rate on zone runs, and fifth in percentage of runs stuffed at the line of scrimmage among RBs with 100+ rushing attempts.

The most significant question mark for Dowdle going into 2025 centers around any potential competition in the Dallas backfield that may be added. Dowdle’s success came when the Cowboys made him the lone RB in the offense, but it’s likely they could add a young RB through the draft, which would complicate things for how fantasy managers can expect him to produce again in 2025.

 

26 Kenneth Walker | Seahawks

Age: 24.2 |  ADP: 4.09 / RB16

Consistency Rank: 15

1st Half: 12 / 2nd Half: 18

 

Maybe the most surprising name this far down on the list is Kenneth Walker. Walker started 2024 on fire, finishing as a top-24 RB in all but one of his first nine games played. The issue with Walker was that he missed six total games this season due to injury and had another three games he was a detriment to have in fantasy lineups, finishing as the RB28 or worse. 

As an added bonus, Walker was very involved in the Seahawks passing game, where he saw a target on 24% of his routes run – good enough to be tied for sixth-best among RBs this season. Walker logged four or more receptions in six different games this season, compared to the four total games he hit that mark in his previous two seasons.

With Walker entering the final season of his rookie contract, fantasy managers will have to decide where his value falls ahead of 2025 drafts. The emergence of a relevant Zach Charbonnet complicates things, as does yet another change at Offensive Coordinator, with Klint Kubiak being brought in to run the offense. Fantasy managers will need to decide if the high-end fantasy finishes they got this season are enough to invest in a mid-round pick for Walker or if it’s not worth being let down again next season.