The TRUTH: QBs Part 2 + Deep Dives, Pendulum Swings

Summary:

Excitement Over Weekend Football 00:44

“It was a wild weekend. Lots to talk about.”

• The podcast opens with a recap of a thrilling weekend of football, hinting at many notable games and events that warrant discussion. The hosts express a shared anticipation for the upcoming Buffalo vs. Kansas City game, underscoring a previous historic matchup that left a lasting impression.

Discussing Patrick Mahomes and Referee Calls 01:52

“Flopping should be penalized for sure.”

• The casual banter delves into the controversial refereeing aspects, particularly with Patrick Mahomes. The hosts critique Mahomes for allegedly flopping to draw penalties, suggesting strict penalties for such actions to discourage players from engaging in what they see as unsportsmanlike behavior. They touch on how Mahomes’ actions might influence referee decisions and articulate frustration over calls like the overly scrutinized half-slide ruling.

The Rise of the Commanders and Jayden Daniels 05:28

“The Commanders are everything that people thought the Bears would be.”

• The conversation shifts towards the unexpected triumph of the Washington Commanders, showcasing their high-stakes victory over the Lions. The hosts draw a parallel between the Commanders’ performance and the Bears’ struggles, suggesting that the Commanders are becoming a formidable team. The narrative introduces Jaden Daniels, praising his impressive play and innovative training methods, particularly his use of virtual reality (VR) to enhance his skills and decision-making as a quarterback.

The Importance of Quarterback Training Techniques 07:28

“Finding another way to just get… see defenses, react, try and make the right call, it’s amazing.”

• Emphasizing the significance of effective training, the hosts elaborate on how virtual reality technology allows quarterbacks like Jaden Daniels to simulate game scenarios at accelerated speed. This training method enables players to experience live-action situations without the same physical risks associated with traditional practices, ultimately preparing them better for real-game conditions.

Tight Ends and Missed Opportunities 10:12

“Lamar missed Derrick Henry down the left sideline. That would have been a guaranteed touchdown early in the game.”

• The discussion begins with the exhaustion that tight ends face during a game, particularly when required to run extensive routes, such as clear-out routes. This highlights the importance of adequate player rotation to keep the team competitive and fresh throughout the game.
• Lamar Jackson‘s performance is analyzed, with a specific mention that he missed a significant opportunity by failing to connect with Derrick Henry, which could have secured an early touchdown, altering the game’s momentum.
• The notion is expressed that not all losses stem from catastrophic failures but rather may come down to a missed opportunity or two, as underscored by trending narratives of turnovers impacting game outcomes.

Turnover Impacts and Team Performance 10:36

“If you look at the losing teams, all four losing teams outgained the winning teams in total yardage.”

• The conversation dives into a compelling statistical observation where losing teams, like the Texans, Lions, Rams, and Ravens, outperformed their victorious opponents in total yardage but still ended up losing the games, emphasizing the critical impact of turnovers in the outcome of games.
• This finding suggests that sheer yardage does not guarantee success; rather, protecting the ball and capitalizing on scoring opportunities are paramount for teams hoping to secure victories.

Coaching Changes in the NFL 11:08

“The Bears hired Ben Johnson as their new head coach.”

• In the wake of recent coaching changes, the Bears made headlines by hiring Ben Johnson, who generated considerable interest from other teams, such as Jacksonville and the Raiders, indicating his rising stock in the coaching community.
• Additional key coaching moves include the Colts hiring Lou Anarumo as defensive coordinator, who has a commendable background, including a solid run with the Bengals.
• These transitions denote strategic shifts that teams are making in pursuit of better performance in the league, with discussions touching on various personalities and styles expected to influence each team’s direction.

Player Futures: Tank Dell and Cooper Kupp 12:45

“D’Amico Ryans says it’s too early to put a timeline on whether Tank Dell can even play in 2025.”

• The uncertain future of Carolina’s Tank Dell is highlighted, with head coach D’Amico Ryans stating it may be premature to forecast his ability to return in 2025, casting a shadow on both Dell’s and the team’s outlook.
• Cooper Kupp’s situation is also under scrutiny as he reflects on his future with the Rams, indicating that while he plans to play next season, questions about his role and productivity linger, especially as he ages and deals with concerns that may lead to his being a cut candidate.
• The segment captures the complex nature of player trajectories in the league, with a focus on adaptability and the vital role that performance pertains to career longevity.

Quarterback Performance and Fantasy Stats 14:32

“Today, we’re in part two. We are looking at the next tier of quarterbacks.”

• Diving back into quarterback analysis, the segment transitions to evaluating the next tier of signal-callers, emphasizing their potential and inconsistencies over the season.
• The discussion points out that a significant number of quarterbacks displayed top 12 fantasy performances throughout the season, with statistical data revealing ongoing patterns in fantasy football strategy.
• The importance of week-to-week performance is stressed, as some quarterbacks are highlighted as unpredictably impactful, while also noting the significant bust rate among players like Kyler Murray, who presented challenges for fantasy managers throughout the season.

Evaluating Kyler Murray‘s Performance 19:40

“But we’re at the point now where the excuses are running out for Kyler.”

• The discussion starts with a growing impatience regarding Kyler Murray‘s performance, as analysts reflect on the dwindling justifications for his inconsistent play. There is a suggestion that acquiring a top-tier wide receiver, like Marvin Harrison, may not solve the overarching issues.
• Despite having talented players like Trey McBride, the sentiment is clear: simply enhancing the receiving corps is insufficient for Murray’s success. His ability to throw for 4,000 yards and achieve only 21 touchdowns is highlighted as particularly disappointing.
• Analysts note that Murray’s game seemed to regress this year, with a mere 13% of his performances being classified as great. In contrast, 44% were deemed poor. They compare him to mobile quarterbacks who can often score baseline fantasy points through rushing yards, a trait that Murray appears to have underutilized this season.

Inconsistency in Fantasy Points 20:40

“In games where he had 20 or more rushing yards, he averaged 21 fantasy points per game.”

• The notes emphasize Murray’s inconsistency in performance, particularly in relation to his rushing capabilities. When he rushes effectively, he averages significantly more fantasy points than when he does not.
• In matches where Murray recorded less than 20 rushing yards, his average drops to 12.5 fantasy points. This highlights a crucial component of his game: when he fails to run, he limits his potential output. Fans often find themselves frustrated when he chooses not to leverage his speed, reminiscent of Superman not using his powers because of his alter ego.
• Analysts suggest that Murray’s lack of development as a passer contributes to disappointing performances. He had several games with fewer touchdowns, leading to a disappointing overall season.

Future Prospects and Draft Considerations 22:40

“Next year, I have to leave the margin that things get better.”

• Looking ahead, there’s a cautious optimism about the potential for improvement, especially if they can integrate players like Marvin Harrison to revitalize the offense. However, analysts express reluctance to fully commit to Kyler Murray, recognizing that he may still be available in later rounds during drafts.
• The consensus is that while there is potential for improvement, particularly in tandem with new additions, there remains significant skepticism about Murray’s ability to consistently deliver as a top-tier quarterback.
• As the analysts conclude their evaluation, they stress the importance of careful consideration when drafting Murray for the next season, given the stark contrasts between fantasy potential and actual performance this year.

Analysis of Caleb Williams‘ Performance 29:29

“This was not the dream season you would have hoped for.”

• The discussion highlights Caleb Williams‘ rookie season, where he exhibited struggles in performance, particularly indicative of the difficulties of transitioning to the NFL.
• He faced a coaching change and recorded an alarming statistic of 68 sacks, the highest in the league, impacting his consistency on the field.
• His performance metrics revealed that 19% of plays were great, while 31% were good, leaving a substantial 56% categorized as busts, rendering him largely irrelevant for fantasy football.
• A crucial moment in his season was the game against Washington, where despite an initial promising record of 4-2, his performance deteriorated significantly thereafter, failing to recover from the setbacks.

Future Prospects with New Coaching 31:04

“Bringing in Ben Johnson as the head coach is fantastic news for hopefully being able to develop Caleb Williams.”

• The hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach is seen as a positive move for developing Williams, suggesting he will benefit from a system that focuses on fundamental skills and strategic play.
• There is optimism that a structured approach will help Williams take advantage of easy, on-time plays and improve his performance by focusing on execution and accuracy.
• However, the discussion also acknowledges that his rookie season left much to be desired, being characterized as a disaster with few standout games against weaker defenses.

Comparison with Other Quarterbacks 36:41

“Jordan Love finishes 15th in consistency, drafted as the quarterback 10 in the seventh round.”

• The comparison with other quarterbacks points out that Jordan Love, despite a rocky start, showed moments of potential and was drafted as a high-value player.
• The dialogue contrasts Love’s breakthrough possibilities with the cautionary tales of quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers, underscoring the risks associated with selecting QBs based on past performances or expectations.
• It reflects a broader theme of quarterback development and the importance of finding the right coaching and system to maximize performance potential in the NFL.

Touchdown Problems and Quarterback Performance 38:34

“It was a touchdown problem in part caused by Josh Jacobs‘ greatness.”

• Throughout the season, the team discussed a notable issue regarding touchdowns, particularly focusing on Josh Jacobs‘ performance. Jacobs’ early season presence was significant, as he experienced several carries without scoring, leading to what was referred to as touchdown regression. This pendulum effect illustrates how momentum can swing dramatically based on a player’s performance, as Jacobs eventually scored multiple touchdowns consistently towards the season’s end.

Fantasy Football Insights on Jordan Love 39:30

“Jordan Love, who last season and at the start of this season, had a really good touchdown percentage.”

• Jordan Love‘s effectiveness, especially within the red zone, has been highlighted as critical. It was noted that, while his early-season performance was strong, he ended up underwhelming during the latter part of the season. A statistical breakdown indicated that without significant contributions, including a low touchdown count, Jordan Love‘s fantasy potential appeared limited. Expecting improvement moving forward becomes essential, as many predict that he is likely to experience three productive fantasy-viable seasons within the next five years.

Evaluating Receivers and Team Dynamics 41:24

“You need one wide receiver that brings it every week.”

• The discussion ventured into the receiver core for the upcoming season, emphasizing the necessity of a reliable wide receiver who can consistently generate high scores each week. With players like Romeo Dobbs and Jaden Reed potentially entering their final season, along with Christian Watson recovering from an injury, the team faces uncertainty. This signals an urgency to assess whether they acquire a true number one receiver or continue building with their current ensemble, which lacks elite talent.

C.J. Stroud‘s Challenges and Performance Review 42:41

“This was worse than the Kyler one.”

• C.J. Stroud‘s rookie season presented significant challenges, particularly as he ended up being deemed less reliable for fantasy football purposes. Statistics revealed that Stroud had six percent of his games classified as good while a staggering 63 percent marked as busts, indicating a struggle to produce adequate points consistently. Comparisons were drawn to Baker Mayfield‘s trajectory, emphasizing the risks of drafting players based on presumed improvement without consistently demonstrated performance.

The Risks and Rewards of Anthony Richardson 48:16

“It’s a big bummer if that’s the case; they started poorly, especially with Tua’s injury, and lost a lot of games.”

• The discussion centers around the idea that the team’s struggles earlier in the season were significantly impacted by injuries, particularly Tua’s. Despite facing substantial challenges and digging themselves into a hole, the team managed to put together some wins down the stretch, suggesting that their strategy did have positive outcomes.
• Fantasy performance is also evaluated, with Anthony Richardson finishing as the 14th-ranked quarterback in terms of consistency during the second half of the season, illustrating that he had improved considerably compared to his earlier performance.
• The conversation hints at ongoing uncertainty about whether Richardson will secure a consistent starting position moving forward, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming season for his career.

Evaluating Performance Metrics of Quarterbacks 48:54

“He’s number one in average depth of target out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks.”

• The group discusses the metrics that define quarterback performance, revealing Anthony Richardson‘s impressive average depth of target, ranking first among qualified quarterbacks. This statistic indicates a tendency towards more aggressive downfield throws rather than short checkdowns.
• Metrics such as passer rating and completion percentage are also considered, with Richardson struggling to maintain solid figures, particularly in terms of off-target throws and checkdown rates, showcasing the challenges he faced throughout the season.
• The implications of these statistics suggest a critical need for improvement in his performance to become a consistently relevant fantasy quarterback, reflective of the broader challenges faced by young quarterbacks adjusting to the league.

Future Prospects for Anthony Richardson 53:00

“He levels up or he flames out.”

• The outlook for Richardson’s future is outlined as a binary choice: he either improves significantly or fails to meet expectations. A major component of his potential trajectory hinges on his ability to enhance his passing accuracy and overall game performance.
• There is a prevailing sentiment that Richardson has one more year, or perhaps even just one more month, to prove himself, especially with the intensity surrounding the Colts’ decision-making regarding quarterback placement. Such pressure could lead to swift changes if he underperforms early in the season.
• His past performance demonstrates flashes of brilliance, particularly in goal-line situations, likening him to established quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, suggesting that with the right development, he could elevate his game to a new level.

Evaluating Player Performance 58:13

“After the bye week, he was on pace for 432 rushing yards.”

• The discussion highlights a player’s performance during the second half of the football season post-bye week, indicating a significant improvement with a projected total of 432 rushing yards.
• This statistic positions the player as a dual threat, capable of contributing in both rushing and passing, akin to other notable players such as Bo Nix, who often rushes for 30 to 50 yards in games.

Team Development and Drafting Needs 58:33

“They’re going to add another wide receiver here.”

• The focus shifts to the team’s strategy regarding player acquisitions, specifically the need for additional wide receivers. This comes in light of recent attempts to enhance the roster, including efforts to acquire player Deontay Johnson.
• Notably, the only current receiver under contract beyond 2025 is Leggett, further emphasizing the need for the team to secure more talent in the receiving corps.

Quarterback Comparisons and Draft Value 59:13

“The truth about Bryce Young is that he will be an NFL quarterback for a little while.”

• The conversation delves into the potential career longevity of Bryce Young as an NFL quarterback, suggesting that being a first-round pick offers him a longer opportunity to prove himself compared to players like Will Levis.
• This context influences fantasy football drafting considerations, suggesting Young may present considerable value, especially in leagues that allow multiple quarterbacks.

Metrics and Evaluations for Saquon Barkley 59:41

“He’s not getting enough credit for the incredible games, which he had five of.”

• The discussion critiques the current metrics used to evaluate player performance, particularly highlighting Saquon Barkley, who had multiple standout games yet may not be receiving adequate recognition for these achievements.
• Further insights are promised in future episodes regarding the broader context of player evaluations and comparisons in the running back position.

Community Engagement and Future Content 01:00:25

“This off-season, we’re here.”

• The hosts remind the audience about ongoing content availability through the off-season, including insights into free agency, drafts, and training camps.
• Engagement with the community is emphasized, urging listeners to follow the show on various platforms and leave feedback to enhance future content offerings.