The Odds and Trends for the AFC and NFC Championship Games

The AFC and NFC Championship Game participants are familiar foes.

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have a long recent history since Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes entered the NFL.

The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles see each other twice a year, but we can really only grab trends from 2024 because of Jayden Daniels’ introduction.

It’s hard to find a ton of trends for the conference championship games themselves that apply to this season’s participants, but there is some notable data to at least consider before a big Pennsylvania sports betting weekend.

AFC Championship Game (Chiefs -1.5, O/U 47.5)

There’s a more data to use for the AFC Championship Game because the Chiefs have been there seven years in a row.

The AFC title game trended toward a lower-scoring affair in the last three years. Kansas City won 23-20 and 17-10 in the last two years while Cincinnati beat the Chiefs 27-24 three years ago.

Before that, the Chiefs played in AFC title games that finished 37-31, 35-24 and 38-24. The last of those scores came against the Bills in 2021.

It’s been more difficult to find lower-scoring games in the recent history of the Bills/Chiefs rivalry, though, as both teams eclipsed the 20-point mark in six of the last eight games dating back to the start of the 2020 season.

The Bills and Chiefs split their last eight meetings, but it’s important to note the Chiefs won the three postseason clashes.

Four of the last five Bills/Chiefs games have been decided by six points or less.

Buffalo owns a 12-7 against the spread record this season, while Kansas City is 8-10 ATS.

Kansas City has only been a favorite shorter than two points twice and it is 1-1 ATS in those games. Buffalo is 3-2 ATS as an underdog and has not been more than a three-point dog all season.

NFC Championship Game (Eagles -6, O/U 47.5)

File this under the fun fact category rather than a trend itself:

Seven of the last nine NFC Championship Game winners eclipsed the 30-point mark.

Five of those seven teams advanced to the Super Bowl by way of double-digit victories, including the Eagles’ wins over the Vikings and 49ers in 2018 and 2023.

The Eagles outscored their last two NFC title game opponents by a combined score of 69-14. But the recent scoring does not go in line with the high-scoring trend of NFC champions. They’ve scored under 30 points in six of their last eight games.

However, one of the two recent instances in which they did eclipse the 30-point mark came in the Week 16 defeat to the Commanders.

The Commanders scored 30-plus points eight times this season. They won all eight of those contests, so there’s the magic number for the Eagles defense to hold them beneath.

The Eagles come into Sunday with a 2-4 ATS mark as a favorite or six or more points, while the Commanders are 1-2 ATS when they are an underdog of six or more points.

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