Ten NFL Trends: Reacting to Pendulum Swings for 2025 & Beyond (Fantasy Football)

Has your stomach settled in from all your Super Bowl overeating? If you’re a Chiefs fan, are you still recovering and asking how that happened?

As a writer, it pains me that so much of the post-Super Bowl discussion speeds up to “Who is the favorite for 2025?” We just finished this marathon and now so much of our energy talking about something that will happen a year from now?!

Call me a bit old school but I’m still pondering the 2024 NFL season:

• Remember when the Raiders and Antonio Pierce punted on 4th-and-1 in Week 1?
• What about Brian Thomas Jr.’s epic rookie season?
• The fact Wan’Dale Robinson saw 133(!) targets?!!
• The Jets ranked dead last in rushing plays inside the 5-yard line… for the 2nd year in a row. Apologies, Breece.

Taking a 10,000 foot view right now of the league is not about ignoring individual team or player conversations but instead zooming out before we press fast forward.

Fantasy Football: An Exercise in Reactionary Thinking

Let me preface this by saying I get to do this for my job. I also try (emphasis on try) to have introspective moments as a human being and as someone that stares at football for a living.

However, I also feel caught up in reacting to what I’ve just seen with my eyes. An initial gut reaction is what drives your social media algorithm and what often suffices for us to find answers. Like Galileo observing objects in motion, we tend to place a massive value on big, heavy objects currently oscillating in front of us for a greater amount of time than lighter objects that have long passed.  (wait… did he just compare himself to Galileo?) The pendulum initially was invented as a seismic instrument to signify the direction an earthquake was located.

The “earthquakes” in this comparison are recent events, player performance, and a lopsided Super Bowl we all watched, for at least a half. We feel the reverberations while failing to account for the broader, more consistent trends in performance in the NFL.

I’ve written about this subject numerous times (Forecasting 101) but it is difficult to faithfully observe what is going on in your world when you are occupying it. Like a goldfish in a fish bowl, we see only in part and our view is distorted by our biases and the limited we view we have on information (you and I don’t know what happens inside a locker room) and our actions.

Fantasy football analysis is often perceived as reactionary due to several factors:

The NFL is not static. While there might be some exceptions to the rule, there is a pendulum of performance for every player and team due to injuries, age, scheme changes, coaching decisions, or matchups. Last year’s stats are descriptive of what happened but not necessarily prescriptive of this year. We are playing with a whole new system and chaos called the NFL season… in 2025. Keep that in mind before we end up copy and pasting the past.

Groupthink is rampant.  We are all guilty of seeing a tweet, an article, some rando reel and subtly locking in the same opinion of someone else. This isn’t inherently wrong but it sways all of us. Average Draft Position (ADP) and rankings are akin to “copying off someone else’s paper” while we all fall into line saying “this is just where this player goes in the 3rd round”.

Our models are limited. Listen, I love taking in info especially from minds wayyyy smarter than mine. Advanced analytics are can be a piece of the pie while recognizing the limits of what can be actionable for an NFL team playing within the confines or a salary cap and an actual game with on field performance. Predicting player performance remains challenging due to the unpredictable nature of sports. This uncertainty can result in analyses that respond to recent events rather than anticipate future outcomes.

Here are ten NFL trends some of which we discussed in our TRUTH Series with the Fantasy Footballers.

1. QBs Rebound League-Wide

2024 rebounded in a number of categories for QBs league-wide:

• Tied for the highest completion percentage (65.3%) of all-time
• TD rate (4.53%) was the highest since 2020
• Fewest INTs & lowest INT rate over the last 15 years
• Most QB rush attempts & rushing yards

Verdict: Boom! It was a banner year for QBs in efficiency, not committing turnovers, and the rush attempts that make them the true cheat codes for fantasy. This trend has continued in part of the last seven years as QBs like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have re-invented how we evaluate the ceiling outcomes for the position. This is a player-centric discussion

However, perhaps this highlights the lack of longevity for QBs who cannot limit their turnovers. Guys like Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis might’ve tantalized us with raw tools but the simply acting of leading a real-life NFL offense is paramount for sustaining fantasy greatness as well.

Marcus Mariota completed as many passes (8) and TDs (4) inside the red zone… as Anthony Richardson.

Mariota did not start an NFL game this year.

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 6, 2025

When you are evaluating future QBs such as this year’s rookie QB class, ask yourself “what works in today’s NFL?” How does this prospect fit in with the trends as opposed to taking college film against weaker competition (hey most of these college athletes will end up more likely selling life insurance instead of playing on Sundays) and assuming that will work against NFL defenses that are bigger, stronger, and faster.

2. QBs Stayed Healthy in 2024

Per FantasyPoints’ Edwin Porras, starting QBs missed 102 total games in 2023, a 16% increase from 2022. On top of that, these weren’t minor injuries and the cascading effect on their pass-catchers and overall offense output:

• Joe Burrow– Missed final six games of the season
• Justin Herbert– Missed final month of the season
• Aaron Rodgers– Played just four total snaps
• Anthony Richardson– Played in just four games
• Kirk Cousins– Played just eight games and Vikings finished sub-.500

Compare that to 2024, high-end QBs stayed relatively healthy in 2024.

Verdict: While predicting future injuries should never be part of your process, the overall league-wide account should be… taken into account. The actionable advice isn’t so much rolling the dice in Monopoly and seeing which QB lands on the “Go to Jail” spot. It is instead building in outcomes where chaos ensues and one or two of these difference-making QBs do not return value. Ask the questions: which of these teams would suffer the most and how would that affect its pass-catchers?

3. Hoarding Multiple QBs

Let’s consider the QB position over the last 20 years of fantasy football.

The prevailing strategy (yes, I know not in your league!) in the early 2000s when fantasy football was exploding was grabbing an elite QB. Between having Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, or a cheat code Michael Vick year, QB ADP not only was elevated but it was celebrated. Over time, there was a discrepancy in the market with cheap, late round QBs with league-winning upside being overlooked. Analysts such as J.J. Zachariason did an excellent job promoting this strategy and opening the wider fantasy football world to this conversation.

Let this incredible illustration I made in exactly 45 seconds provide the optics you need to make this clear:

However, as this strategy took on more life, the value in the later rounds began to evaporate as more and more of your league mates also were waiting to pull the trigger with you. It was a standoff, a Cold War where one person waited to see shots fired first. The pendulum swung to the point where it would’ve been easy to lock into late round QB as gospel and proclaim “this is the way”.  But as JJ and countless others have shared, we play a game that functions as a market with simple supply and demand opportunity costs. Hopefully, you were paying attention in Economics class because fantasy football is not always a this-or-that binary decision. There is nuance and a chance to ask deeper questions: “what does this QB have to do at his price to pay off?”

Instead of looking at this as a pendulum swing, perhaps there is a nuanced middle ground that you and your league mates may have landed on this past year: we saw a lot more rosters (in 1QB leagues) hoarding 2+ QBs. Instead of going into the season subscribing to just one strategy, there was a 3rd door that also could be equally viable. Any strategy can work, in theory. If you hit on the right Elite QB (Lamar Jackson), congrats! If you held out and took Jayden Daniels at the end of your drafts, you felt like the smartest person in the room. However, there were also people who picked up Baker Mayfield and paired him with another serviceable QB like Bo Nix to mix and match all year long.

Verdict: This seems like a good middle ground. The optionality for managers should be applauded rather than trying to force drafters into one of two camps. 

4. Early RBs Crushed

The top-end RBs in the 1st two rounds of the draft were monumental. The top-7 RBs were all drafted within the top-24 picks of drafts in 2024.

If you tried Zero RB, you likely were burned. Your roster looked cool when you drafted/mock drafted in August unless you picked up Bucky Irving or had Chase Brown.

Verdict: The RB injuries were few and far between in 2024. If the field is overreacting and RB ADP is pushed up the board, it will provide value at other positions and potentially elevate some of the Zero RB targets for 2025. Did the strategy work last year? In large part, no. However, we play a market-based game that could allow shrewd managers the buying opportunity that wasn’t available in previous years.

5. Rookie RBs Failed

“Invest in Rookie RBs”, they said.

2024 said: Nah.

This was the fewest total touches & yards from scrimmage from rookie RBs over the last decade. It was more importantly the 1st year since 2011 that we failed to have more than one rookie RB finish inside the top-24 at the position. (Yes, we know Bucky is great)

Verdict: This is a blip on the radar. After a lackluster 2024 rookie RB class, the Boise State RB you heard about all fall is ready to become the latest 1st round RB taken in the NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty should be thought of in the same light as Bijan Robinson where you knew he was going to be the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. Beyond Jeanty, there are some intriguing names that should be taken early on Day 2 such as North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton, and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. Ohio State sports a pair of national championship teammates (TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins) that both could enter the Day 2 conversation. We also have cleaner landing spots (as we share in our Team Opportunity breakdowns) in 2025. We should see multiple top-50 selections in the NFL Draft giving us a fantasy football well that certainly won’t run dry after just one year of barrenness.

6. RB Receiving Work is Declining

2024 RBs crushed in the rushing department. We need to clarify that point as RBs totaled their most rushing fantasy points since 2011 thanks in large part to the 2nd most rushing TDs in that span.

However, league-wide RBs took a step back in terms of receiving production. RBs totaled their fewest receiving yards since 2011.

Verdict: From 2015-2018, PPR RBs were all the rage. Did you win a league on the back of guys like Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick, Chris Thompson, or Shane Vereen? The power of the PPR back was evident as you could overload your roster at other positions and make up the difference by finding cheap backs who could rack up most of their production via the air. Times have changed my friend! Is this how it is?

In general, we’ve seen a downward trend of RB involvement on a per-route basis and especially on 3rd downs as outlet receivers. Defenses have accounted for RBs on routes in the flat with expanded zone coverages with CBs literally sitting down within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. The elite RBs who do catch the ball have become even more valuable for fantasy (De’Von Achane) as ancillary guys (rookie Jaylen Wright) or committee guys (Jaylen Warren types) we thought would make a difference as PPR back  never really broke through as viable assets for fantasy. There should be a slight rebound in 2025 while also pairing together some of the injury rebounds from our 4th trend above. I want to target teams with weak WR corps: if they have a sub-60% market share to their WRs, they tend to see RB target market shares over 20+ percent.

7. WR Targets Increased in Value

While the RBs saw their receiving involvement decrease, WRs had a field day in 2024.

• 2024 saw the most total receiving TDs (537) from WRs in NFL History.
• 11 different WRs had 9 or more receiving TDs including randos like Rashod Bateman & Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Last year, we had only 6!
• It was the highest fantasy points per target for WRs since 2020.
• We saw 24 total Rec TDs on Behind Line of Scrimmage Targets for WRs… more than 2022 and 2023 combined for WRs!

Verdict: The increased value of short-area targets makes sense with the way defenses are aligning. We want to target WRs who actually excel in both explosive plays down the field AND get peppered with quick hitters and “lay up” type throws.

Jaguars rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. is a perfect example. His calling card at LSU was the deep ball with 40+ % of his production coming on Go routes. However, his utilization with Jacksonville was much more nuanced. While he ranked 3rd in overall receiving yards and 5th in 20+ air yard targets, he was also used in the screen game a ton. He went 17-of-17 on targets behind the line of scrimmage with a robust 10.2 YAC per reception on those plays. This is not an either-or situation or you’d end up looking at this data and say we should all be targeted Wan’Dale Robinson types. Woof.

8. More Man Coverage

In 2024, NFL defenses employed ZONE 67% of the time, down from 71% in 2023.

• 2020- 64%
• 2021- 67%
• 2022- 68%
• 2023- 71%
• 2024- 67%

22 NFL Teams (69% of the league) increased their rate of man coverage from 2023.

These are season-long trends but we also must keep in mind how defenses react to certain teams on a week-to-week basis. For example, Russ Wilson crushed man coverage for his first seven weeks under center. Over the final month, he saw man coverage just 18% of the time and the entire offense regressed. NFL defenses play a cat and mouse game; it is often reactionary to the previous week’s film.

Verdict: In a broad sense, you could argue DCs were adjusting to help out more in the running game and dealing with more short-area targets. Honestly, I am still taking in information and data about this slight shift in approach. In the past, I will admit I’ve been quite harsh on WRs who fall behind their counterparts in consistently beating zone coverage. The thinking goes: if this WR is seeing zone 70% of the time and they are one of the worst in the league, how much of their production comes in 30% of their plays and does that weigh enough to warrant investing in them for season-long leagues? In DFS, we can hone in on coverages and tendencies but over the course of the season, this league is still heavily influenced by its passers being able to read zone and for WRs to find soft spot in coverages.

9. TE Target Share is Rising

League-wide, TEs accounted for 24% of the receptions and the highest overall total in league history. This sounds great, right?

We had 3 TEs finished with 95+ receptions: Bowers- 112, McBride- 111, Kelce- 97; in 2023, we had just one: Evan Engram.

Despite the increase in volume, we also saw the fewest fantasy points per reception for TEs since 2011.

Verdict: As Jason mentioned on the TEs truth episode, there are only a couple of true stud TEs out there. Aside from George Kittle‘s impressive points per game season, it was Brock Bowers and Trey McBride piling up massive reception totals that were the difference-makers in your league. However, those also struggled with TDs as the next trend will help enlighten.

10. Red Zone Woes for TEs Continue

The last three years have not gone well for TEs inside the 20. We’ve steadily seen TEs league-wide account for a lower percenrtage of their team’s red zone targets and red zone TDs than five years ago.

Don’t blame the Ravens! Their TEs accounted for 18(!) receiving TDs. That’s as many as Cowboys, Colts, Giants, Rams, Panthers, Chargers, Jaguars, and Texans TEs… combined.

Verdict: We used to be able to put TEs in simple categories and one of those was “TD-or-bust”. The last few years show us that compartmentalizing TEs and placing them in this bucket might be a fool’s errand. Teams are running more inside the red zone, especially inside the five. Few guys have a true “red zone” dominator role like Mark Andrews. Even Travis Kelce felt the pain of it this year. Despite leading all TEs in red zone targets (25), he converted just three of those into TDs, the lowest total of his career!

At the end of the day, I want TEs with 20+ percent of the targets on offenses that consistently move the ball inside the red zone. These percentages might be moving into a range where they rebound league-wide especially in the TD department. It just makes the elite TEs that much more valuable.