SR’s FAB 5: Will The Bucs Make A Big Trade For A Pass Rusher?

INTRO: The Bucs need an elite edge rusher if they want to make a serious run at the Super Bowl in 2025. But how will they acquire an outside linebacker capable of getting double-digit sacks this offseason? A blockbuster trade? A splash free agent signing? A stealth free agent addition with a young, unproven edge rusher? Or will Licht try his hand at the draft again and select another edge rusher with a premium pick for the third straight year?

I explore the challenge that lies ahead for Jason Licht, Todd Bowles and the front office in a new SR’s Fab 5. Enjoy!

FAB 1. Will Jason Licht Make A Blockbuster Trade For An Elite Edge Rusher?

You’re asking Jason Licht to do something he’s never done before.

You’re asking him to make a blockbuster trade for a premier edge rusher involving premium draft picks.

You’re asking him to possibly surrender two first-round picks (and maybe more) for Cleveland Pro Bowler Myles Garrett, who just requested a trade to a Super Bowl contender.

Or you’re suggesting that he potentially trade a second-rounder – and maybe it’s first-rounder – for Cincinnati Pro Bowler Trey Hendrickson, who has had back-to-back years with 17.5 sacks.

Some of you want don’t want Licht to trade for an elite edge rusher. You would rather he save his draft capital to pay Khalil Mack, who had six sacks for the Chargers last year at age 34, around $22 million-$23 million per year on a multi-year deal in free agency.

You saw Yaya Diaby lead Tampa Bay’s outside linebackers with just 4.5 sacks last year and know that the Bucs need more pressure from the edge if this team is going to make a serious Super Bowl run in 2025.

The two times this franchise has won a Super Bowl, it has had at least one dominant edge rusher. In 2002, that was Simeon Rice who had 15.5 sacks opposite Greg Spires, who had 3.5 sacks. In 2020, it was Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, who combined for 17.5 sacks during the regular season.

Vita Vea turned 30 on February 5. Chris Godwin turns 29 on February 27. Baker Mayfield turns 30 on April 14. Mike Evans turns 32 on August 21. These franchise Bucs are still in their prime, but won’t be for long.

Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl window is open. It’s time to go for it, as the Bucs should be a legit Super Bowl contender in the NFC in 2025.

San Francisco took a big step backward last season. Detroit lost both coordinators and could be taking a step backward this year. Were the stellar seasons by Minnesota and Washington flukes in 2024 or were they for real?

Everyone knows that the Bucs need to retool their defense and find as many as five new starters – with cornerback and strong safety possibly joining the big needs at inside linebacker (two) and outside linebacker.

The Bucs could very well draft another edge this year – perhaps in the first round – but Licht’s track record isn’t the best at outside linebacker. Noah Spence, a second-rounder in 2016, was a bust. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, the last pick in the first round in 2021, has not lived up to expectations and isn’t starter material. He won’t be re-signed in free agency.

Diaby, a third-round pick in 2023, has been a hit, but with 12 sacks in two seasons, he’s more of a No. 2 on the outside linebacker depth chart rather than an alpha, double-digit pass rusher that this roster is missing. Chris Braswell, last year’s second-round pick, was slow to develop and only had 1.5 sacks as a rookie.

I’ve also blamed outside linebackers coach George Edwards for failing to level up the young edge rushers, including Markees Watts and Jose Ramirez, and being too attached to Tryon-Shoyinka. So, if I’m Licht, do I trust myself to finally nail a double-digit edge rusher? And perhaps more importantly, do I trust Edwards to rapidly bring out the best in the next edge rusher I draft whether it’s Marshall’s Mike Green, Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku or another stud sacker?

That scenario certainly makes trading for – or signing – a proven, experienced edge rusher so appealing this offseason, doesn’t it?

But this is uncharted territory for Licht. The two Super Bowl-winning edge rushers he acquired – Pierre-Paul and Barrett – came via a trade with a third-round pick and via a one-year, prove-it deal worth $5 million, respectively.

Licht has never conducted a blockbuster trade in his 11 years as the Bucs’ general manager. He didn’t send two first-rounders – in the same draft in 2000 – to the New York Jets for Keyshawn Johnson. Former general manager Rich McKay did that.

Nor did Licht send two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million in cash to the Oakland Raiders for Jon Gruden. The late Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer did that in 2002.

Licht didn’t trade a first-round pick for one-year rental of cornerback Darrelle Revis. Former Bucs general manager Mark Dominik did that in 2013.

What have been Licht’s biggest trades so far? Sending a third-rounder for Pierre-Paul in 2018 was his biggest one.

He also traded a fourth-round pick and tight end Tim Wright for guard Logan Mankins in 2014. He shipped a third- and a fourth-rounder to Indianapolis to move up four spots in the second round to select guard Ali Marpet in 2015. And he traded a third- and a fourth-rounder to Kansas City to move up into the second round to select kicker Roberto Aguayo in 2016.

Licht’s biggest moves have typically been reserved for free agency where he made Ryan Jensen the league’s highest-paid center twice – in 2018 and again in 2022 – and landed the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, in 2020.

So will this be the year Licht does something he’s never done before and makes a blockbuster trade for an impact pass rusher? Or will he continue to value his draft picks and opt not to use draft capital for an established edge rusher?

With the Super Bowl window open and some of the Bucs’ prime players nearing the end of their prime in the coming years, it will be a fascinating to see what Licht decides to do this offseason. Let’s take a look at the scenarios that could unfold in terms of the best available edge rushers and see which route Licht is more likely to take.

FAB 2. Trading For Browns Pro Bowler Myles Garrett Will Cost A Fortune

So you want Myles Garrett? Get in line.

And I don’t mean get in line behind former Tampa Bay defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and the legions of other Bucs fans who want Jason Licht to trade for the six-time Pro Bowler.

I mean get in line behind several other NFL teams that want Garrett, too. There could be quite a few teams that want Garrett, who wants out of Cleveland after a three-win season, preferring to go to a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Or maybe the Bucs are actually at the front of the line – whether they are serious about trading for Garrett or not – due to their draft order?

Tampa Bay has the No. 19 overall pick, and that’s certainly higher than either Philadelphia or Kansas City, who will pick at No. 31 and No. 32 depending on the outcome of Super Bowl LIX. And the Bucs have better draft positioning than the Chargers (No. 22), Packers (No. 24) and Commanders (No. 29). Garrett might prefer to go to one of those teams instead, but the Browns are going to want the best compensation package possible for dealing away their franchise player and that means sending him to the team with the highest first-round pick.

Oh, and it’s going to cost two first-round picks, too. Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo laid out the cost of trading for Garrett in a recent video for PewterReportTV, our YouTube channel.

Yes, the 29-year old Garrett is that good of a pass rusher and will command at least two first-round picks. The 6-foot-4, 272-pound Garrett has 102.5 sacks in his career, averaging 14.9 sacks per season. He’s had double-digit sacks in each of the last seven seasons.

So a team like Atlanta, who picks 15th overall, or Arizona, who has the No. 16 overall pick and whose leading sacker was Zaven Collins with five, could be a more attractive trading partner for Cleveland than Tampa Bay, which picks later in the first round. That would mean that trading for Garrett would cost more than two first-round picks.

And it will cost a hefty sum of cash, too.

Garrett, who has two years left on a contract that pays him $25 million per year, likely also wants a new contract as he turns 30 at the end of this year. The six-time Pro Bowler is the fifth-highest paid edge rusher and likely wants to top San Francisco’s Nick Bosa, who is making $34 million per year.

So on top of the two first-round picks it would cost to acquire Garrett, he’s going to be a heavy salary cap hit for a Tampa Bay team that only has $2,239,732 worth of cap space right now.

In case you’re wondering, it would likely cost two first-round picks for Las Vegas’ edge rusher Maxx Crosby, too. Crosby, who has two years left on a deal that pays him $23.5 million per season, is only 28 and trading him would save the Raiders nearly $17.8 million in cap money. Not that they need it, though. New general manager John Spytek already has $92.5 million of available cap space, which is the second-most in the NFL right now.

I believe trading for Myles Garrett is the least likely scenario for the Bucs this offseason in their pursuit of a pass rusher. Why? Because if Tampa Bay only needed an alpha edge rusher it would be different. But the Bucs defense also needs two starting inside linebackers, possibly another strong safety to replace Jordan Whitehead and potentially another starting cornerback to replace the oft-injured Jamel Dean.

Does Licht have the stomach for a mega deal like this where he’s going from six draft picks down to five in 2025 – and perhaps down to four if it would cost him an additional third-round pick to beat out another team’s compensation package, in addition to losing a first-rounder in 2026? I don’t know, but I don’t think he does.

So let’s look at other scenarios where Licht could acquire an elite edge rusher.

FAB 3. Trading For Trey Hendrickson Won’t Come At Such A Hefty Price

Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson is no Myles Garrett, but he’s no slouch, either.

The 6-foot-4, 270-pounder led the league with 17.5 sacks last year and posted an identical number of sacks the year prior. Since notching 13.5 sacks in his final season in New Orleans, Hendrickson has been a double-digit sacker in all four seasons in Cincinnati, where he has been a four-time Pro Bowler.

A year older than Garrett at age 30, Hendrickson is going to be traded this offseason as the Bengals need the $15.8 million in cash that he’s set to make for his base salary in order to extend the contract of Pro Bowl wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Hendrickson is in the final year of his contract and trading him will also clear $16 million in cap room.

Trading for Hendrickson likely won’t cost a team two first-round picks. He’s not the complete player that Garrett is as an elite run stuffer, too. It might cost a second-rounder to acquire Hendrickson or perhaps a first-rounder and then getting a mid-round pick in return in addition to the elite pass rusher who is still in his prime.

Hendrickson is currently the 11th-highest paid edge rusher in the NFL at $21 million per year. He’s not necessarily gunning to be highest paid player at his position, but he’ll likely want to be in the Top 5. So that means a raise to around $28 million per year on likely a three- or four-year deal.

Remember, the biggest trade Jason Licht has made for another veteran was giving up a third-rounder for Jason Pierre-Paul in 2018. I could see Licht leveling up in this scenario more than I can see him pulling the trigger on a mega trade for Garrett.

Licht and his team of scouts have done an amazing job of finding talent throughout the draft. So he won’t part ways with draft picks very lightly.

The first round has brought in players recently like Vita Vea, Tristan Wirfs, Calijah Kancey and Graham Barton. The second round has produced players like Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch in recent years. The third round has delivered the likes of Jamel Dean, Rachaad White, Tykee Smith and Jalen McMillan to Tampa Bay. And the fourth and fifth round has brought Bucky Irving, Zyon McCollum, SirVocea Dennis and Payne Durham to the Bucs.

Yet despite all of Licht’s success in the draft, he has struggled to draft an elite edge rusher. So perhaps he makes a move for Hendrickson the way he traded for JPP and gets a proven commodity at getting to the quarterback. I could see Licht trading for Hendrickson more than I could him dealing multiple picks for Garrett.

But perhaps Licht doesn’t want to give up any draft picks this year.

FAB 4. Bucs Could Pursue A Premier Free Agent Pass Rusher

There is a chance that the Bucs might want to pursue a trade for Myles Garrett or Trey Hendrickson this offseason. Yet if that’s the case, there is no guarantee that Tampa Bay would land either pass rusher.

The Bucs could lose out on both to other teams with better draft compensation packages.

Or maybe Jason Licht just wants to keep all six of his draft picks this year and sign a pass rusher in free agency.

After all, the first-rounder that Tampa Bay would surrender to Cleveland, or a second-rounder that the team could send to Cincinnati, might wind up being the starting cornerback or the starting inside linebacker that Todd Bowles needs. The Bucs have multiple needs on defense and could see as many as five new starters there in 2025.

The free agent market isn’t as plentiful as this year’s draft when it comes to edge rushers, but there are a few headliners, including Chargers defensive end Khalil Mack, Eagles defensive end Josh Sweat, Jets outside linebacker Haason Reddick and Saints defensive end Chase Young.

According to Pewter Report’s cap guru Josh Queipo, Mack’s age will likely earn him a raise from $19 million per year to $22.5 million, but keep him out of the Top 5 earning edge rushers. It’s a risky investment for a pass rusher who turns 34 on February 22, and whose sack number dropped from 17 in 2023 to just six in 2024.

Mack still has it, according to Pro Football Focus, as his 2024 grade of 90.2 was similar to his 91.8 grade in 2023. And his pass rush grade only dipped slightly from 86.3 to 78.9. But at some point, Mack will lose a step – and it will be sooner rather than later. But will it be in 2025 or 2026?

The Bucs are looking for a speed rusher off the edge to complement Yaya Diaby, who is more of a power rusher. That’s why signing Sweat may not be as appealing because he also wins with power.

Sweat turns 28 on March 29, and has just one double-digit sack season (11 in 2022). Yet he’s coming off a really good eight-sack season in 2024 and will likely earn close to $17 million per year on his next deal.

Young will only turn 26 on April 14, but he’s failed to live up to his No. 2 overall draft status from the 2020 draft. He’s posted two 7.5-sack seasons in 2020 and in 2023 when he notched five with Washington before being traded to San Francisco where he grabbed 2.5 more.

But Young could be on to his fourth team in six years after notching 5.5 sacks in New Orleans last season. Despite being overrated, Young will likely fetch $15 million per year from some desperate team that still believes in his hype. I doubt it will be Tampa Bay, as Young has never been a factor when playing the Bucs in previous years.

Reddick is the other big-name edge rusher who could be pursued this offseason. The Bucs have been cold on him before because he has done nothing against Tampa Bay in previous games, whether it be with Philadelphia or with Carolina. Reddick is an undersized speed rusher at 6-foot-1, 240 pounds, which is much smaller than Shaq Barrett was.

He’ll turn 31 on September 22, but he may have already lost a step. After four straight seasons with double-digit sacks from 2020-23, Reddick was traded to the Jets because he wanted a bigger contract. Once he arrived in New York he held out for the first seven weeks of the season and then only notched one sack in 10 games down the stretch.

That really dampened his bargaining power this offseason, and he developed the reputation for being all about the money. Still, some team will take a chance on the speedy Reddick and hope that 2024 was a fluke and that a big day will get him back on track at sacking quarterbacks at a high rate. Reddick is projected to sign a deal worth $15 million per year.

So if Licht wants to save a draft pick he could take a chance on one of these high-priced, proven pass rushers – of varying degrees – and hope the Bucs get what they pay for.

Or Licht could travel down a familiar road.

FAB 5. It’s Risky To Try To Find The Next Shaq Barrett

Jason Licht and the Bucs have had success nailing a couple of free agent signings who came to Tampa Bay on cheap, one-year deals.

Outside linebacker Shaq Barrett signed a one-year, $5 million contract in 2019 and wound up leading the NFL in sacks with 19.5 that season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield signed a one-year, $4 million deal with incentives and wound up resurrecting his career in Tampa Bay and become a two-time Pro Bowler in the process.

How much did luck play into the signings of Barrett and Mayfield and how much of it was just absolute nailing the scouting reports on both players? There was some amount of luck involved to some degree with these signings, right?

And of course, luck isn’t a strategy.

Yet this is a course of action that Licht has followed before, signing Barrett in 2019 and also signing veteran edge rusher Randy Gregory to a one-year deal worth $3 million last year. Yet that signing blew up in the Bucs’ face as Gregory never reported to OTAs, the mandatory mini-camp and training camp and was released in August.

Should he want to draft another edge rusher, perhaps in the first or second round again, and then hedge his bet with another cheap, prove-it deal for a young edge rusher, there are a few risks he could take this March.

Raiders edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, a former first-round pick, is only 25 years old and is coming off a five-sack season, which is his best, in his lone season in Las Vegas. The speedy, athletic, part-time starter signed a one-year deal worth $1.125 million and could fetch a similar deal in 2025.

Bengals outside linebacker Joseph Ossai has had to fight for playing time behind Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard and only started three games last year. But the former second-round pick is coming off a career-best five sacks and two forced fumbles and will only be 25 this season. He could fetch a two-year deal worth $4.5 million per season.

Vikings outside linebacker Pat Jones II has been in a similar situation behind Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, yet recorded a career-high seven sacks playing in 15 games last year with one start. Jones was a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and teammates with Calijah Kancey and SirVocea Dennis at Pittsburgh.

The 26-year old Jones has 12 career sacks, which was the same number as Barrett when he landed in Tampa Bay in 2019. Like Ossai, the 6-foot-4, 264-pound Jones will likely land a deal around $4.5 million per season.

These three edge rushers are younger and cheaper, but certainly less proven. Don’t look at their PFF grades because you won’t like what you see.

Yet perhaps one could just need a change of scenery and an opportunity to start in Tampa Bay to reach their full potential like Barrett did. I’m not advocating for it as I don’t think any of these three could become the next Barrett – or even close to him. But they are options that Tampa Bay could consider – and ultimately dismiss, too.

It will be fascinating to see how Licht and the Bucs address their need for an elite outside linebacker this offseason as there are multiple paths that could be taken.

Choose wisely, Jason.

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