Phillies the Slightest of Favorites at -115 to Win Road Series with Mets

It’s time for another early litmus test series.

The Phillies head to Citi Field for a three-game set with the Mets that pits the two best teams in the National League East against each other.

The Phils are a slight -115 favorite on the series money line at DraftKings. The Mets check in at -105.

The reason you can hot take the series as a litmus test is because the Phils are throwing Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Zack Wheeler, in that order.

At some point, Jesus Luzardo might eclipse Nola or road Sanchez as the No. 3 guy, but, on paper, these are the Phils’ top three hurlers.

The Mets’ rotation is a bit of a mess because Paul Blackburn, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas are all on the injured list. Somehow they’ve pulled it together, but this week is the first true test for them.

New York played Miami twice, the Athletics, Twins, and Cardinals in five of their first seven series. Not exactly murderers’ row so it’s no surprise the Mets are on top of the NL East.

Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning, and David Peterson are in line to start this week.

On paper, Monday’s Nola vs. Megill matchup looks dodgy from the Phillies perspective.

Pete Alonso (5 HR in 50 ABs), Brandon Nimmo (2 HR in 52 ABs), and Juan Soto (3 HR in 35 ABs) all have great power numbers and a .250 batting average against Nola in their careers. Starling Marte also has a .355 BA against Nola in 31 ABs.

Nola’s ERA is five points higher than Megill’s and he’s given up at least five hits in all four starts. The strikeout numbers are there, though, as Nola had 7 or 8 Ks in three starts.

Megill got roughed up for 14 hits over his last two starts, so it’s not like he’s perfect either.

There’s no massive H2H data for the Phils against Megill, but it’s worth noting that right-handed batters have a .319 average against Monday’s Mets starter this season. Lefties are hitting .133.

Hello, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and yes of course, Nick Castellanos.

Look, I think we all can agree the Castellanos home run schtick jumped the shark about a year ago, but The Pope died earlier this morning and Castellanos to hit a home run is the most popular prop bet at a handful of sportsbooks as of this writing.

DraftKings is still running its No Sweat Home Run bet promotion. Castellanos has the lowest odds of any player in the Phils/Mets game to go yard at +360. Might I suggest Trea Turner at +700 or J.T. Realmuto at +800 as an alternative to your internet memes?

FanDuel has a 30 percent profit boost for any MLB wager of -200 or longer. FD also has a boost on the YRFI or NRFI if you’re looking for NJ sportsbook promos or eyeing this game on PA sports betting apps.

If you want to play into the splits against Megill, I’d look into Turner total bases for the boost. He is tied for the most hits among Phillies hitters in the last week.

bet365 has a 30 percent Same Game Parlay boost. I’d use some combination of hits or total bases for the Phils’ right-handed batters for that.

The post Phillies the Slightest of Favorites at -115 to Win Road Series with Mets appeared first on Crossing Broad.