NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 18 (Fantasy Football)

Happy Week 18! For those of you still in the fantasy playoffs, this article will take a look at team performance trends leading into the final week of the season. Let’s jump right into things.

Offensive Takeaways

The Falcons look great offensively since the installation of Michael Penix into the offense. Their cumulative EPA offensively is above zero, indicating consistent offensive play as of late. Facing a severely struggling Panthers defense, this should be a huge performance from the Atlanta offense.

The Chargers’ offense is rolling, now up to 0.03 EPA/play on the season, and with a positive cumulative EPA as well. A matchup against Las Vegas means big points from LAC in the final week of the season. Ladd McConkey, Justin Herbert, and J.K. Dobbins are all must-starts.

The Bucs have a must-win matchup against the Saints in Week 18 and have been red-hot offensively. They have a 0.10 EPA/play on the season, and face a struggling New Orleans defense whose cumulative defensive EPA is below zero, showing their cold streak. Bucky Irving, Baker Mayfield, and Jalen McMillan are all strong starts for the final week of the season.

The Lions’ offense has been playing lights out all season but has taken a jump in recent weeks. They have a 0.15 EPA/play on the season and play a divisional matchup against Minnesota for the one-seed in the NFC. Expect a high-offensive performance from them in Week 18, and from the Vikings as well—the Lions’ defense is heavily banged up and has not been strong for the past few weeks.

The Cardinals have been off and on all season offensively, yet have a favorable matchup against the 49ers in Week 18. The Niners have fallen deep below the zero level in defensive cumulative EPA, displaying heavy struggles as of late on the off side of the ball. Look for Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, and Marvin Harrison Jr. to have strong performances this week.

While it likely goes without saying, the Bengals are one of the hottest offenses in the league and rank seventh in EPA/play this year. While they have a tough matchup against the Steelers, it’s a must-win, so don’t count out Burrow and his offense in fantasy.

Defensive Takeaways

The Ravens’ cumulative EPA defensively skyrocketing above zero signifies their recent strength to close out the year—they face the worst-performing offense in the league at -0.14 EPA/play, so look to start them in fantasy if you can. The Ballers have them ranked #1 on the week.

The Chargers face the Raiders, who post a -0.11 EPA/play on the season offensively. The Ballers have them ranked as the number-two defense on the week, so look to start them if you can.

Similar to the Ravens, the Bucs’ defense is heating up, and they have a strong matchup against the Saints, who have a -0.06 EPA/play on the year. The Ballers have them as the number-three defense in this must-win week.

While the Eagles’ defense is also trending up, they are likely going to be sitting a number of starters and face a Giants team coming off a surprisingly dominant offensive performance in Week 17. The Eagles might not be a great option for fantasy in Week 18 if you are looking for lower-risk plays.

The Dolphins’ defense is also heating up. They face a truly poor Jets offense whose cumulative offensive EPA is tanking below zero. Look to start the Phins’ defense in their must-win Week 18 matchup.

*Below find the cumulative EPA trends for all 32 teams.

*Below find the EPA/play rankings for all 32 teams (arranged by offensive EPA/play).

Lastly, let’s take a look at how each defense performs against each position group (past five games). In the table below, the higher the value, the worse the defense plays against the given position.

The Bills have given 3.01 points per touch to TEs in the past five weeks—as they face New England in Week 18, Hunter Henry seems like a strong start.

Carolina is the worst-performing defense against QBs in the last five weeks, and they face the Falcons in Week 18. Look for Penix to continue his strong play and see him as an option for fantasy if you need a quick play.

The Bengals have been terrible against opposing WRs in recent weeks—look for George Pickens to have a great week. The Ballers have him ranked as the WR13 this week.

The Lions have been struggling lately vs. RBs, giving up 1.03 points per touch—Aaron Jones is set for success in the final week of the season.

That’s all for this article—good luck in your final week of fantasy football, and thank you for following along all season!