The NFL playoffs have arrived and the AFC Wildcard Round is set to begin. The Houston Texans come in as the winner of the AFC South and the number four seed. They host the fifth-seed Los Angeles Chargers. In AFC North champions Baltimore Ravens are the third seed and host division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, entering as the sixth seed.
Los Angeles Chargers versus Houston Texans
The Texans won the AFC South with a record of 10-7. They were 5-3 at home and 5-4 on the road. The Chargers finished second in the AFC West with a record of 11-6. They were 5-3 at home and 6-3 on the road. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.625 to 2.350 with an over/under of 42.5. The Chargers are “burning hot” versus “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator after a three-game winning streak to close the regular season. Houston is +19 versus +14 on the Power Ranks Indicator and +11 to +10 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. The teams are trending in games “over” the line with a score prediction of 32-18 in favor of the Chargers with 91 percent confidence. In addition, the protection for “over” is nearly 93 percent. There is a 54 percent chance that the Texans will cover the spread however the Chargers have a +101 to 0 point differential advantage. I like the Chargers to win and cover in a game “over” the line.
Pittsburgh Steelers versus Baltimore Ravens
In this AFC North battle, the two teams head into the postseason going in opposite directions. The Ravens won the division with a record of 12-5, going 6-2 at home and 6-3 on the road. The Steelers were two games back at 10-7, but lost their last four and went 5-4 on the road. Baltimore is a huge 9.5-point favorite with odds of 1.19 to 4.9 and an over/under of 43.5. Baltimore is “burning hot” versus “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +31 to +5 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending on opposite sides of the line with a score prediction of 42-16 in favor of the Ravens with 83 percent confidence. Despite the score prediction, the projection for “under” is nearly 85 percent, presenting a bit of uncertainty on the over/under bet. Baltimore has a +157 to +33 scoring differential edge. The teams split the regular season games, both winning at home. Note that the Steelers are very unstable regarding their favorite/underdog status. Baltimore has covered 80 percent of their games as the favorite. The recent trends of these two teams, plus playing at home make this an easy pick. Go with the Ravens by double digits in a game “over” the line.
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