NFL DFS Pace of Play for Wild Card Weekend 2025

As I detailed in the First Look article, Betz and I are approaching this Wild Card weekend with three different slates in mind:

• Saturday Only: 2 Games
• Sunday Only: 3 Games
• Monday Only: 1 Game

However, you can use this article as a puzzle piece in whatever slate you choose to play DFS with this weekend.

Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

• 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
• 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
• 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
• 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
• 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For the playoffs, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate, EPA metrics and factor that for a final GPS score.

As of this writing, I’ve been informed that “Super” WildCard is no longer a thing. It’s just Wild Card now. Welp, that was short-lived. Let’s dive into these Saturday and Sunday matchups from a Pace of Play perspective, some coverage takes and I’ll give which stacks I plan to implement this week.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

This game graded out as the lowest of WildCard weekend when you consider the Texans are a shell of themselves. Over the last six weeks, they rank 27th in EPA per play and the fewest offensive plays per game. While their 6.9% pass rate over expectation might be enticing, keep in mind that just throwing the ball more isn’t the same thing as converting drives. Over their final three games, Houston possessed the ball just 45% of the time, 29th in the NFL. The Chargers sport the 8th highest 2nd half rush rate if you think the Vegas line is legit.

The Texans pass defense quietly ranked 30th in fantasy points per drop back utilizing 2-high looks and 24th in EPA per pass attempt over the final six weeks of the season. Opponents threw to their 1st reads 72.6% of the time, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. They have had issues against slot receivers such as Ladd McConkey routinely beating them on slant routes. He ranked 3rd behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson in receiving yards on play-action. His 4.43 YPRR on those plays is a reason I’m quite bullish on Ladd this weekend. The Chargers relentless commitment to the run was balanced out with a 2nd half pass rate that was a more respectable 56%. They still ranked dead last in stuff rate (49.8%) and 27th in yards before contact on the season showcasing that OC Greg Roman sometimes can’t help but enforce his predictable High-T ways. I don’t love this matchup for J.K. Dobbins and would prefer double-stacking Herbert in the passing game.

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