For the Conference Championships, we have two enticing games to breakdown and dive deep into how these final 4 teams want to play based on their personnel.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For the playoffs, I’ve sorted the remaining 4 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate, EPA metrics and factor that for a final GPS score.
For the full discussion of how we’d approach these games from a stacking perspective, make sure you check out Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
At this point, we know who these teams are and what makes both the final contenders in the NFC. Jayden Daniels has been unflappable under pressure and every NFL fan is falling in love with this story of the rookie who could lead his team to the Super Bowl in Year 1. Washington ranks 4th in neutral pace, 1st in no-huddle rate, and a willingness to go for it on 4th down like their life depended on it. We love backwards hat Dan and the fact this team turned itself around faster than anyone could imagine. Saquon Barkley has put together an all-time season with monster 40+ yard runs on the reg while the Eagles defense has turned into a feared unit. As I detailed last week, Philly ranks dead last in PROE, 4th in 1st half rush rate, #1 in second half rush rate, and 2nd in neutral rush rate. In other words, anyway you want to spin it, this team is built on its offensive line and its experience in the run game.
We also are privileged to have two games worth of data to work with and overanalyze. Yes, I do love a good italicized word to emphasize my point in writing. It is way too easy in football analysis world to use previous games as a template and simply copy and paste what we’ve seen before. However, with such a small sample size (2 games), it can be tempting (see what I did there) to pigeon-hole ourselves into only using those game scripts and outcomes to become our sole lens to view this NFC Championship Game. Let’s refresh how those two games went:
Week 11– The final score (PHI won 26-18) really doesn’t do justice of how that Thursday night game played out. Jalen Hurts looked like he was going to get knocked out with a concussion but stayed in the game as the Eagles offense sputtered in the 1st half. They scored 20 unanswered points in the 4th quarter (after heading into the 4th down 12-10) and then the Commanders got a meaningless octopus from Zach Ertz with 30 seconds left to make the final score look like a one score game. Jayden Daniels went just 7-for-18 on the ground including just two designed runs for 3 yards. The Eagles played a season-high 85% of their defensive snaps in zone including 41% in Cover 3 shells. They didn’t utilize man coverage until the 7th drive of the game. They basically sat in zone daring Washington ancillary pass-catchers to beat them while giving ample attention to Terry McLaurin. I bring this up because the defensive alignment in Week 16 looks very different and the defense had a much different result.
Week 16– Yep, this was the shootout and drama we all paid admission price for. Daniels cemented his legendary status with a come-from-behind victory (36-33) and a TD pass to the immortal Jamison Crowder with six seconds left. What the biggest difference? Philadelphia decided to blitz at its highest rate of the season and got burned with Daniels torching them for five passing TDs. On the year, Daniels’ 0.52 fantasy points per drop back ranked 8th in the NFL (right behind Hurts) and he scrambled on over 10% of those drop backs. It simply didn’t work and DC Vic Fangio likely will go back to the drawing board to redirect their course. In their two playoff games against pocket passers (Love & Stafford), Philly played man 28% of the time but matched that with a much more Fangio-esque Cover 3 rate of 26%. Expect more of Week 11 but leave room for Daniels to be Daniels. We also have to remember that Hurts was knocked out of that game (both Washington games were rough on the guy) and we saw a good amount of Kenny Pickett.
3 Game Flows I’m Building From
Eagles Defense Rules the Day
This unit has been lights out for most of the year ranking top-5 in EPA per rush and pass and limiting explosive pass plays all year long. While we remember Jayden Daniels‘ deep balls from his Heisman-winning year at LSU, they’ve actually been few and far between as a rookie apart from a few memorable Terry McLaurin bombs. (Oh, and that Hail Mary! Sorry Bears fans) Just 10% of his attempts this year have gone for 20+ Air Yards and if the big splash plays are limited from Fangio adjusting his defense to more Cover 3 and Cover 4 shells this week, Washington might have some issues.
The Commanders rush defense is in for a treat against the league’s best offensive line. It is the clearest mismatch remaining in the playoffs as Washington allowed 2.59 adjusted yards before contact, dead last in the NFL. Saquon’s 1,328 rushing yards before contact was most in the NFL since 2016, when they started tracking that stat. I don’t need to tell you to play Saquon but there is a route where this game duds and you don’t necessarily need multiple pieces from the Commanders side. I would play it as Saquon + PHI DST and bring it back with someone like Zach Ertz or Austin Ekeler as a starting place for this build.
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