NFL DFS First Look at Salaries & Matchups for Super Bowl LIX

Player pricing on the major DFS platforms is available to us well before we even start our process of building lineups and allows us to identify the inefficiencies, a tool within the toolbelt of someone who wants to win consistently in DFS. For the complete list of DraftKings and FanDuel prices, check out this week’s DFS rankings found in the Ultimate DFS Pass.

Make sure you listen to this week’s Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast with our Super Preview on Friday!

Check back later next week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.

Super Bowl LIX Matchup

The spread in this game reflects the general sentiment about this being a close game between two teams who met here just two years ago. Philly’s defense is truly an impressive unit ranking in the top-5 of  every single EPA metric. The Chiefs rank 3rd in neutral pass rate and 2nd in PROE on the season. Their “flag football” style was something I highlighted last week in the Conference Championship Pace of Play article. Expect more of the same methodical plays as just 8.1% of Mahomes’ attempts this year have gone for 20+ Air Yards.

As I’ve detailed throughout the playoffs, Philly’s offense ranks dead last in PROE, 4th in 1st half rush rate, #1 in second half rush rate, and 2nd in neutral rush rate. In other words, anyway you want to spin it, this team is built on its offensive line and its experience in the run game. Saquon’s 1,328 rushing yards before contact was most in the NFL since 2016, when they started tracking that stat. It is two contrasting playing styles but when we factor in how slow KC plays (30th in no huddle rate), the 48.5 total does seem a bit higher based on first glance.

Showdown Strategy Thoughts

Playing a Showdown slate is incredibly different than the DFS you have likely been soaking up for the last few months of football.

What site am I playing on? DraftKings “captain spot” operates on a premium salary basis by multiplying the player’s salary times 1.5 and their fantasy points by 1.5. On FanDuel, the “MVP” spot only is a point multiplier. Thus, we can’t always compare apples to apples across both sites. There is an opportunity cost playing Saquon Barkley at $12,000 on DK knowing you likely will have to find a cheap option somewhere on your roster. However, on FanDuel, it is just a straight salary game and finding the highest points per dollar.

Do I need to look at positions? Because Showdown slates deal with every single player as a FLEX, it can be easy to disregard traditional position allocation in DFS. Theoretically, you could have Patrick Mahomes with three Chiefs with him and not even think twice about it. But the combinations are endless despite only having to fulfill six spots.

Who is your captain? Guess this right, and you, my friends, have simply opened the first door to taking down a tournament. The multiplier of 1.5 tells a partial story as roster percentages need to be taken into account. Here is a rough projection of what historically DraftKings Showdown games like this one look like:

• QBs- 45+ %
• RB1s- 12-15 % (Saquon changes things dramatically)
• RB2s- < 5 %
• WR1s- 20 %
• WR2s- < 5 %
• TEs- < 5 % (But Kelce changes things)
• DSTs- < 5 %

Notice that TE is usually a contrarian position for Showdown slates but with Travis Kelce in the mix, I expect him to be the 2nd or 3rd most popular captain choice roughly 10 percent of the field. The WR2 options are where you gain the most leverage and are one of my favorite spots to attack on Showdown slates, especially on a full PPR site with bonuses like DraftKings.

What type of game script are you running with? I will discuss all the different outcomes in the Pace of Play article coming out this next week.

DraftKings Salaries

Quick Player Thoughts

It’s rare in this day and age that an RB is the top option on a Showdown Slate. But then again, we are dealing with an all-time season from Saquon. At $18,000, this is tied with CMC from last year as the most expensive player in a Super Bowl Showdown in the last four years. I prefer Saquon Barkley as a priority CPT and plan on being slightly underweight on my FLEX exposure compared to the field.

Every 40+ yard rush from Saquon Barkley this year

I can’t help it. I’m smiling the whole time. pic.twitter.com/86IOHorU7s

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 30, 2025

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