NFL DFS FanDuel Picks: Wild Card Weekend (Fantasy Football)

DFS strategy is different on small playoff slates. It’s important to get unique, but that becomes tricky when you have fewer options to choose from on these smaller slates. Ultimately, we’re looking for the highest ceiling and a few spots to get different, if it makes sense.

FanDuel offers multiple slates for Wild Card Weekend. You can play each day individually, Sunday-Monday, or Saturday-Monday. Saturday and Sunday are the “main” slates and I will offer my favorite way to approach each position for those days.  

Saturday

With just two games, we only have four teams to pick from on Saturday. This will make roster percentages condense higher than usual on the best plays. You’ll have to use popular players more often than usual in tournaments. The key to taking one down is finding the right team and stacking partners to pair with them, especially if those stacking partners are less popular. I will mostly make cases for individual players, but make sure to use slate context when building lineups.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson vs. PIT – $8,700

Jackson is expensive and will be popular in the Wild Card round. That’s typically a combination to avoid in tournaments but this season’s QB1 easily has the highest ceiling on the Saturday slate with so few options. The key will be who you surround him with in lineups. I’ll discuss some stacking options at other positions but there’s also the option of playing him naked if you want access to his points without playing the guessing game for stacks.

C.J. Stroud vs. LAC – $7,000

It’s been a disappointing second season for Stroud relative to the expectations but I will be overweight on him in tournaments if he’s as unpopular. It’s an extremely small sample size but he went 6-for-6 for 50 yards and a touchdown in limited playing time in Week 18. It was a meaningless game against a dreadful Tennessee team and while this is completely narrative-based, it could give Stroud a confidence boost as Houston hosts the Chargers as three-point underdogs. 

Running Backs

Derrick Henry vs. PIT – $9,800

Like Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Henry will likely be both popular and expensive this week. Again, with so few options it’s tough to avoid Henry in tournaments. I usually wouldn’t want to roster Jackson and Henry together in a tournament lineup but I’m ok with it on this condensed slate. If Baltimore rolls as 9.5-point home favorites you get access to all of their scoring between the two. 

Joe Mixon vs. LAC – $7,500

There’s a path for Mixon in tournaments if Houston gets their running game going early. The Chargers limited fantasy points to running backs on the season but faltered a bit down the stretch, ranking 20th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to the position from Weeks 11-17. I wouldn’t play Mixon along with Stroud but it makes sense to game-stack him with Chargers on the other side. 

Justice Hill vs. PIT – $4,800

You need to get off the board somewhere in GPP lineups and Hill is an option on the Saturday slate. He sat the last two weeks with a concussion but has been practicing in full and doesn’t have an injury designation heading into the game. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points four times this season, which would be enough to pay off at just $4,800. You can skinny stack him with Lamar Jackson, as he finished as a top ten fantasy QB each time Hill scored double-digit fantasy points, including an overall QB1 finish in Week 7.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins vs. LAC – $8,600

Collins is the only true stud WR on the Saturday slate. The Chargers have been a plus matchup for wideouts on the season, ranking 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. He can be played in any lineup configuration but stacking him with Stroud and running it back with some Chargers unlocks the kind of ceiling we’re looking for in tournaments.

Note: After Collins, I’m scrolling way down to get off the board at WR but don’t ignore stacking with your chosen QB. Ladd McConkey ($7,500), George Pickens ($6,900), or Quentin Johnson ($6,200) can absolutely work if you build lineups with their QBs.

Diontae Johnson vs. LAC – $5,200

Johnson is a complete dart throw after joining the Texans just a few weeks ago, now his third team this season. He debuted in Week 18 with just four targets on 16 routes but it’s a good sign that he got on the field with C.J. Stroud. We know Johnson has the talent to score fantasy points, as he eclipsed 15 FD points three times early in the season. That is in the range of outcomes if he gets a full-time role for Houston in the playoffs.

Calvin Austin III @ BAL – $5,100 OR Mike Williams @ BAL – $4,700

Austin and Williams both come with big-play upside and can pay off their salaries with one long touchdown. Austin has been getting more opportunities, running an average of an average of 32.7 routes/game over the last three weeks, while Williams has only topped 20 routes once since joining Pittsburgh.

Nelson Agholor vs. PIT – $4,800 OR Tylan Wallace vs. PIT – $4,400

Agholor missed Weeks 16-17 with a concussion and was a healthy scratch in Week 18 but with Zay Flowers sidelined, he should be in line for an expanded role. Wallace stepped up with a season-high 73% snap share to go with 27 routes last week. He also flashed his big play upside with an 84-yard touchdown in Week 10.

https://x.com/NFL/status/1854731065803366890

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely vs. PIT – $5,100

Likely is my preferred stacking partner with Lamar Jackson and my favorite tight end on the slate. While Mark Andrews ($6,200) has run ridiculously hot, catching 11 touchdowns over the last 12 games, Likely has scored in two of the last three. He’s run just 50 fewer routes and seen just 13 fewer targets than Andrews on the season. You should sprinkle in other tight ends if playing multiple lineups but with so few options on the Saturday slate, I’ll look to be overweight on Likely.

DST

Houston Texans vs. LAC – $3,800

The Texans may be underdogs but they play at home, where they have been significantly better this season. You can see the splits of what they have allowed this season in the table below.

I’m willing to lean into these splits with just four defenses to choose from on Saturday.

Sunday

The Sunday slate not only has more options, but the games also feature better projected game environments. All three games feature higher over/under totals than Saturday’s games and better Game Pace Scores (GPS). If you are playing a slate that covers both days, focusing on Sunday’s games not only gives you access to better options but also allows you to take advantage of late swaps.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts vs. GB – $8,300

Sunday’s slate features three dual-threat quarterbacks that can break a slate. As of this writing, Hurts is projected to be rostered in fewer lineups than Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen, according to the optimizer. This is likely due, at least in part, to him missing the better part of the last three weeks with a concussion. He’s topped 20 FD points in eight games this season and surpassed 30 FD points twice. I’m interested in that kind of ceiling at $8,300, especially if he is going to be the third most popular quarterback on a small slate.

Baker Mayfield vs. WAS – $7,900

Mayfield is coming off the best regular season of his career after finishing as the overall QB3. He and the Buccaneers host the Commanders as three-point favorites and this game carries the highest GPS (4.0) of the entire Wild Card weekend. Despite this great setup, “Laser” is currently projected as the fourth most popular QB on the slate. Rostering him here offers massive leverage on Jayden Daniels ($8,400) lineups, as the optimizer is currently showing him as the most popular QB.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley vs. GB – $9,600

Barkley is expensive, but that high price will likely keep his roster percentage in check. I don’t want to play him alongside Hurts in any lineups but I want to be overweight on him overall. As much as I like Hurts, there’s a chance that Philly hands the ball to Barkley more often in goalline situations as they look to keep their recently concussed QB healthy for a long playoff run. As 5.5-point home favorites, it should set up for the fully rested Barkley to have a big day after taking last week off.

James Cook vs. DEN – $8,000

I love Cook in tournament formats on this slate. His percentage is currently projected around 22% in the optimizer which may seem high but is palatable on a smaller slate. We know he can find the end zone after scoring 18 total touchdowns this season, second only to Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s a favorable matchup for him against Denver, at least through the air. The Broncos allowed the seventh-most receptions to running backs this season and the second-most touchdowns through the air to the position. 

Rachaad White vs. WAS – $5,700

White is a tournament only play to pivot on Bucky Irving lineups. While the rookie has stolen the show down the home stretch of the regular season, White hasn’t completely disappeared. Irving is projected to be rostered in nearly 80% of lineups according to the optimizer. It doesn’t get much chalkier than that, so White offers massive leverage on the field if Bucky fails.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown vs. GB – $8,600 AND/OR DeVonta Smith vs. GB – $7,400

With Hurts as my favorite quarterback, I will be pairing him with at least one of his pass-catchers. Neither look to be overwhelmingly popular and they each carry slate breaking upside. I’m fine double-stacking them both with Hurts in tournaments and finding a Packer to run it back with on the other side. 

Jayden Reed @ PHI – $6,000 OR Dontayvion Wicks @ PHI – $5,400

Speaking of running it back with a Packer, Reed is my preferred option. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 12, when he caught two against Miami. He also found the end zone twice against Philly to finish as the WR1 in Week 1. Reed is tough to trust but has the volatility that can pay off in tournaments. As for Wicks, he’s seen at least five targets in three consecutive games and will likely be a bigger part of Green Bay’s game plan as they prepare to be without Christian Watson.

Marvin Mims Jr. @ BUF – $5,900

Mims’ underlying metrics have been awesome this season. His 2.57 yards/route run ranks fourth among wide receivers, ahead of studs like Justin Jefferson (2.50), Mike Evans (2.41) and Ja’Marr Chase (2.41). He led qualifying receivers with a ridiculous 12.3 YAC/rec. He isn’t getting elite usage, failing to top a 47% snap share in a single game this season, but he is explosive enough to warrant a roster spot on this slate.

Keon Coleman vs. DEN – $5,200

The last two weeks haven’t been the most high-stakes games for Buffalo but it’s encouraging that Coleman has averaged a 93% snap share and 8.5 in those games after a wrist injury sidelined him for over a month. The rookie leads the Bills with a 15.5-yard aDOT and is just one touchdown behind Mack Hollins for the team lead despite missing four games. He profiles as the kind of receiver who can score a touchdown (or two) to easily pay off his discount salary.

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert vs. GB – $6,000

Goedert keeps with the theme of stacking Jalen Hurts with his pass catchers. He just returned from IR and played sparingly in Week 18 but it’s good to see him ramp up as most of the starters were resting. I will be mixing Goedert in with Hurts in hopes of hitting on some lower-rostered stacks on this slate.

Dalton Kincaid vs. DEN – $5,500

Kincaid is another tight end who recently returned from injury. It was a disappointing season for those of us who expected a breakout from Kincaid but he has a chance to redeem himself in the NFL playoffs. It sets up nicely for him in the Wild Card round against a Denver team that ranked 31st in schedule-adjusted points allowed to tight ends from Weeks 13-17.

DST 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. WAS – $4,200

Jayden Daniels had an amazing rookie campaign but the playoffs are a whole new season. He’ll face a tough environment on the road in Tampa. Daniels’ 8.9% sack rate was seventh highest in the regular season and the Buccanneers recorded the sixth most sacks in the league (46). I’m willing to take the shot rostering the Tampa Bay defense at a reasonable salary at home against a rookie QB.