NFL betting tips: Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos preview and picks

Sunday’s Wild Card triple bill in the NFL begins with a fascinating clash between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium (18:00).

The Bills are the second seeds in the AFC and considered genuine Super Bowl contenders after going 13-4 to win the AFC East this season and winning all eight of their home games.

The Broncos are one of three teams from the AFC West to qualify for the playoffs. They had little chance of overhauling perennial divisional champions the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 15-2, and were pipped to second by the 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers.

However, fans will be delighted that a 10-7 record was good enough to get them into the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

The Bills have won five of the teams’ last seven meetings, although the Broncos came out on top in their most recent clash with a 24-22 win in Buffalo in November 2023.

The home side are strongly favoured on the handicap, but the Broncos have won five of their last seven games and are not likely to see their season end without putting up a fight.

We’ve prepared a three-leg bet builder suggestion for the game that pays out at 6/1 if successful.

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Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos tips

• Denver Broncos +8.5
• Over 0.5 James Cook rushing touchdowns
• Over 38.5 Marvin Mims Jr. receiving yards

Bet Builder odds: 6/1

Broncos can put up a spirited show

The advantage of earning a high playoff seeding through a strong regular-season record is evident in this matchup as the second-seeded Bills are unbeaten at home, while the Broncos are seventh seeds and have to travel after going only 4-5 on the road this year.

Even so, Sean Payton’s team are capable of putting up a solid effort even if it ends in defeat. The Broncos have lost by a double-figure margin only once all season and, while that was in a  41-10 reverse in Baltimore, that was back in Week 9 and the game got away from them in the second half.

Since that early November outing, the Broncos have either won or been beaten by no more than seven points in eight successive games and their improving young defence can keep them in the contest against the Bills too.

Payton’s defence have registered 12 quarterback sacks in their last two games alone, with Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper and Zach Allen leading their pass-rush, while rookie quarterback Bo Nix continues to impress and has 12 passing touchdowns in his last four outings.

Bills backers shouldn’t worry about last week’s 23-16 loss to New England as head coach Sean McDermott rested most of his starters as the result could have no effect on their seeding, but his team should not expect an easy ride in their bid to reach the divisional round.

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Cook has the right recipe

Bills running back James Cook has become a reliable performer for his team in his third NFL season and, having scored two touchdowns in each of his first two years, he has reached the end zone 16 times this year.

Cook can be fancied to add to his TD tally against the Broncos having scored in each of his last four games, with two touchdowns in the crazy 48-42 win against the Lions and one in each of his subsequent games, two of which were against the Patriots and one against the Jets.

Cook had 109 rushing yards on just 12 carries in the teams’ meeting last season and has failed to reach the end zone in only four of his 16 appearances this season.

Mims making a name for himself 

Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is establishing himself as a key player, having been underused for much of his first two seasons in the NFL and he can make his mark against the Bills.

Mims has posted 44 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games and can be backed to record 39 or more against the Bills.

The Bills rank only 24th in the league for passing yards allowed and Mims has the speed to test even the best defensive backs.

He has caught all 13 of the passes that have come his way against the Bengals and Chiefs in the last two games for 103 and 51 yards respectively and should show up well against the Bills too.

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All odds correct at time of writing

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