March Madness: The Odds and Trends for Friday’s Sweet 16 Games

The March Madness moment we were searching for finally arrived late last night. Hopefully chaos breeds more chaos, and if that is the case, the early games on Friday are the ones to watch. Friday’s early games have spreads of 3.5 and 4.5, while the late tipoffs have larger spreads in favor of the No. 1 seeds. No matter which way you bet, there are plenty of promotions to take advantage of.

Wrapping up the Sweet 16 TONIGHT

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— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 28, 2025

DraftKings has a No Sweat bet available, FanDuel has a profit boost token, BetMGM has an odds boost token, bet365 has a 30 percent SGP boost, and ESPNBet has a profit boost pack for the Sweet 16.

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (-3.5) (O/U: 144.5) 

A lot is made about Tom Izzo’s ability to coach in March, but you could actually give the advantage, at least recently, to Chris Beard. The current Ole Miss coach took Texas Tech to the Elite Eight and the National Championship Game in consecutive years. He has 13 NCAA tournament wins with four different schools since 2016. Izzo has the same amount of Sweet 16 appearances than Beard dating back to 2016, Beard’s first year as a D1 head coach. Michigan State is 24-10-1 against the spread and it is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games. Ole Miss is 5-7 ATS in its last 12, but it is on a three-game streak of covering as a dog. The Rebels are 6-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog of four points or less. Those are better trends for this matchup since the total of 144.5 is on the low end for where the numbers have been set this season for both teams.

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee (-4.5) (O/U: 144.5)

Kentucky beat Tennessee twice in SEC play. The Wildcats won 78-73 and 75-64, both scores would have cleared the over/under set for Friday’s game. Kentucky won outright as an underdog of 10.5 and 3.5 points and it is 8-4 ATS as a dog this season with seven outright wins, including in the second round against Illinois. Tennessee is 4-7 ATS dating back to February 15 and it is 3-4 ATS as a favorite of five points or less. I will add this caveat: Tennessee coach Rick Barnes has never been to the Final Four. He can’t even get to the big one, but he can’t win the big one before the big one, so I would fade the Vols in the Elite Eight on Sunday if they make it through tonight.

No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn (-8.5) (O/U: 153.5) 

Say what you want about Michigan and its turnover problems, but it’s still playing. Dusty May proved in a short time that he is a strong NCAA tournament coach with both Florida Atlantic and Michigan. However, this is the biggest point spread deficit facing the Wolverines all season. They’ve only been a dog of more than five points once and failed to cover against Michigan State. Michigan is 7-2 ATS as a dog, but most of those spreads have been between one and five points. On the other hand, Auburn is no stranger to being a heavy favorite. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS as a favorite between 8 and 10 points. That’s the best sample size to take from instead of expanding to the games in which Auburn has been favored by 12+ points. Auburn is 6-4 to the over when the total closed at 154 or higher,  while Michigan is 5-6 to the over in those instances.

No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston (-8.5) (O/U: 131.5)

Houston and Purdue are both 19-16 ATS this season. Houston is 6-3 ATS as a favorite between 8 and 12 points, while Purdue is 4-4 ATS as an underdog. The total stands out the most compared the other three games. The lowest total for a Purdue game this season was 136. Only three Boilermakers games had totals under 140. They hit the over in all three of those games. Houston is 15-6 to the under for totals in the 130s and it is 9-4 to the under with the total between 130 and 135.

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